HERE IS ANOTHER THOUGHT...24 Jan 2024 20:32
Sorry, but here it is.
Assuming in a few months time the 100 million meters that have been awarded to AMISPs, are then ALL awarded onwards to their subcontractors for install and the contracts go live.
The common installation time period seems to be around 27 months ( two years 3 months) in general as in the recent One Million Omnimesh Modules win with Montecarlo. ..so in a few months time ALL the subcontractors will have been given the green light to install 100 m meters in 27 months.
Say, if Cyan get just 10% of this initial 100 million meter first tranche, which would be 10 million meters to install in 27 months. We already have approx. 6 million units to be installed - so 4 million over next few months .
At a unit price of say $12 each ..with $7 being paid per unit in first 27 months and remaining $5 over remaining eight years or so at $1.5 a year .for maintenance etc . if this were to happen per contract this would give Cyan approx. a $70 million revenue windfall up front / during the 27 month implementation period as units are delivered. Plus another $50 m over remaining 7 years maintenance contract ( $ 7 .5 . million per year after 27 months for 7/8 years)..
Averages out at approx. $2.5 m per month to Cyan for the 27 months installation period.
The actual physical installation rate in peoples homes per month would need to be 330 ,000 per month which sounds a lot of deployments.
Is this correct? Is my thinking correct. Happy to be corrected. If Cyan win at least another 4 million units in India over next 3-6 months then with the 6 million units already won they will have a total of 10 m metres needing to be manufactured, delivered and installed in next 27 months.
As we hope for even better news than this. I think even with just a 10% win of the initial 100m meters , the numbers look v. good.
If anything, a great deal depends on the installation numbers, and how much they miss their targets bye - as this will prolong the installation of the first wave, and the second wave of another 150 million meters may go ahead and allocate but not implement until first 100m meters are installed satisfactory.
Therefore, if Cyan do well on first wave and begin installing and also do well on second wave which will be awarded but delayed , then Cyan could be the goose with the golden eggs....just not had time to hatch them....must be attractive proposition for many e specially if with a unified HES, gas, water and RE etc can also be managed at a lower cost per home.
just my thoughts a we await further proper news. GL ALL Vas
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