Member Info for Vascular

No idea what is going on, but all I know is that there were approx. 1.25 m shares sold a few days ago and today seems to be a mixture of buys and sells but all much larger trades than we have had here for many weeks .

Its Thursday, its nearly 2pm and its been a long time since have heard anything - so maybe today is the day we get some direction. GL Vas

We know IntelliSmart and Montecarlo are not meter manufacturers , but also Adani does not get mentioned here either.......................imagine the number of smart meters that have been awarded between them - and they will be subcontracting to the meter manufacturers shortly.

https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/notification/2024/04/List_of_Net_Meter_Manufacturers-2.pdf

Morning Gizmo.

Yes, Cyan employee's working in Surat for DGVCL.

Here is a Field Engineer who has been working in Surat for past three months.

Field Engineer

CyanConnode pvt. Ltd.

Feb 2024 - Present 3 months

Surat, Gujarat, India

I work Gateway Installation and smart meter communication and not communication report of DGVCL Smart Metering project

https://in.linkedin.com/in/avanish-kumar-yadav-b453782b8

Thanks LT.

Yes, i was being a bit conservative along with my usual vagueness with numbers.

I am wondering as we start the new financial year what with DGVCL at approx 100,000 units being installed a month , the Montecarlo one million unit order and other known awards , what kind of revenue we can expect each month ....the Montecarlo award started in Jan 24, for a total of 27 month - so 24 months left - with a million units to be installed , so that's approx. another 40,000 units a month so these two awards alone give approx. a £million or more a month sales going forward into 24/25

What about the other awards.....and then lastly the awards that we do not know about yet, and may now contribute to this years sales. GL Vas

Morning ALL,

Am i right in thinking that conservatively a 100k installation rate per month by DGVCL would generate approx. £500 K plus a month for the next 18 months, if Cyan continue to be successful in DGVCL ?

If so , its not hard to imagine once the installations begin in earnest, and assuming Cyan have their share of awards , how these numbers will very quickly transform the revenues of CC. Just need to wait for the installations to be awarded and started.

Just realised the information i posted in last post is is from the RNS from last Oct 23, a framework offtake order from IntelliSmart for 300,000 units , awarded to Cyan which stated that

"The supply of Omnimesh Modules for this project is expected to commence during Q4 FY 2024"

Apologies , yet good news that this is now starting and will be a useful contribution to revenues for 24/25 an beyond.

GL Vas

"DGVCL Ushers in New Era with Prepaid Smart Meters for Surat. On April 8th, DGVCL will embark on this journey by installing smart meters in Suman Shail Apartment located in the Piplod Division. This pilot project paves the way for a large-scale rollout across the city, with an estimated 17 lakh meters planned for installation over the next 18 months...........The initial phase focuses on seven divisions within Surat circle: Surat City, Surat Rural, Piplod, Rander, Surat Industrial, Vyara, and Kamrej. DGVCL plans to install 3,000 meters daily, translating to approximately 90,000 to 1 lakh meters installed per month."

If these meters contain Cyan technology - then the question is will trigger another subsequent off take order from IntelliSmart !

https://english.loktej.com/article/11046/dgvcl-ushers-in-new-era-with-prepaid-smart-meters-for#google_vignette

Https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/cyanconnode-holdings-plc-lon-cyan-093734194.html

I really cant believe the lack of smart meter news, i have no evidence but to me it seems that there is a media blackout on smart meter news as in past deals between political party's and energy have been done to secure votes....before Xmas there was new news and analyses every day. Now , nothing.

If i am right then this is going to reduce news flow to Cyan and other Indian subcontractors , and from Cyan to us also.

Anyone buying down here in the past three years would have done well if they had traded the share at 16, or even 24p and that was without the awaited humongous 250 m smart meter award in India about to take place ...., so if we take the most basic investing rule into account - I guess now is the time to buy low , and later is a time to sell higher...and then its just a case of how successful CC are, and how much higher the sp goes.....and for balance whether we ever , ever get anymore further news at all.

Https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/indias-smart-meter-programme-to-invest-rs-1-5-lakh-cr-for-prepaid-smart-meters/108848405

A couple of observations from the Genus Feb 24 earnings call

quote - page 6

"I will just clarify that. 50% of the tenders have been floated. I would say tenders worth Rs. 150

million have been floated, out of which Rs. 100 million has been decided and Rs. 50 million

will get decided over the course of next 3 to 6 months. That is the current scenario. And out of

Rs. 100 million, Rs. 22 million is secured by Genus itself. And the remaining, yes, we are in

touch with all the AMISP players – Adani, Monte Carlo, IntelliSmart. And we have secured

good orders from Adani also, we have secured good orders from IntelliSmart, we have secured

good orders from Monte Carlo"

So it seems that Genus are winning their own awards as an AMISP in their own right, and also winning awards as a subcontractor and being given awards to manufacture smart meters from other AMISPs also - such as IntelliSmart, Monte Carlo and Adani ......so if this is to continue - then Genus would need to ensure that they can continue to manufacture Cyan modules / meters so to satisfy the awards they already received, and any future awards that demand a cyan module inside .

If Genus stop manufacturing Cyan Modules , they then lose control of procuring parts as required and become dependent on the general market for cyan parts - something that i know Genus wish to avoid in all their meter manufacturers - they like complete and if possible manufacture every meter part and process, including the entire supply chain of parts .

Interestingly the order in January this year for a million modules for MonteCarlo did not trigger any news from Genus so we assume these must be being manufactured and supplied from somewhere else.

Another observation as far as Genus is concerned is that in the transcript after discussing all the awards they have won, when asked when will the execution start the answer was , yes next year projects will go into full swing.

Therefore, this absence of news should be a distant memory in a month or two , once this ( what seems like) total news blackout on anything around smart meters and awards from utilities , AMISPS to subcontractors etc .

Quote

Question: Another question I had regarding the execution phase. I wanted to know if the execution will

pick up in the next year ( meaning 24/25 , I assume. )

Ans: Yes, the execution will be in full swing for all the projects in the next financial year. .....It is not that we are doing it for the first time. We have done this kind of installation work in the past".

https://genuspower.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Genus-Power-Q3FY24-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf

This job was advertised in February this year, so interviews probably a few weeks ago.

a few of the essentials..

Working on Cellular Technology based Product Development

and Validation

DFM, DFT experience for medium and/or high-volume product manufacturing.

Experience of DFM/DFT for medium (100K+) / high

volume (1M+) manufacturing – essential.

I am pleased they have experience of manufacturing 1 million units + listed as an essential.

Really hard to find any new news on any of the players in the smart meter rollout at the moment...its as if there is a blackout of news - i wonder if this is due to the election next month.

https://cyanconnode.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/CyanConnodeJobDescription-SnrHWEngineer-v2.pdf

Anything can happen this time of year! Luckily for us there is a celebration of a resurrection of sorts happening this Sunday, with some guy with the initials JC... coincidence , maybe.

Interesting session : "#SmartMetering Lessons from Europe and Americas" and Just around same time as JCs discussion paper was published.

"Although the smart meter deployment program in India is progressing fast, there are important lessons to learn from utilities in North America and Europe who were front-runners in this domain.....Experts from select utilities in USA and Europe who have successfully implemented AMI projects involving multi-million meters and maintaining the system for several years will be invited to share their experiences and lessons learned with the Indian Discoms, AMISPs and other stakeholders involved in the smart metering ecosystem."

Anyone know if Cyan where presenting there?

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/india-smart-grid-forum_smartmetering-activity-7168539524527058944-JJ2l/

Lol . I had obviously forgotten about it, but do remember it now. I think i was focussed on the micro caps Milton -Otherwise would not have bothered posting what i did !

Apologies.

Could have been worse is all i can say.

Hi Jake,

Here is a snap shot of Milton Micro small caps on 15th March 2024 ( last actual NAV date) .

They have Cyan at number two out of their top ten holdings at 3.13%. Pretty Up to date stuff.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/m/miton-uk-microcap-trust-ordinary-shares

Cheers Vas

Hi Jake,

I'm not sure anyone has shown any evidence that Milton small caps sold any CC shares. If they have, i apologise and would like to see it for myself.

All i can tell you is what i find and going by these two Milton small caps investor portfolio composition updates. The fiorst dated 31st Aug 23 .

It states that CC are held at no. three in their top twenty holdings at 3.1 %

https://www.mitonukmicrocaptrust.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2023/10/23.09.2529-Miton-UK-MicroCap-Trust-Presentation.pdf

The second similar document published dated 31st Jan 24 has Cyan held at number two in their top twenty holdings at 3.4 %

https://www.mitonukmicrocaptrust.com/portfolio-information/

13 %

and as of 29/02/2024 Cyan is ranked second out of top ten at 3.13%

Miton UK Microcap Trust plc (LON:MINI) Co-fund manager, Gervais Williams gave interviews relating to Cyan and was "tremendously Upbeat" in December 23 , followed by late Feb 24 , in City wire he was very upbeat about Cyan and also of course two months ago the vox markets interview where he was gain very bullish.

https://videos.voxmarkets.co.uk/video/6957

I agree the percentages do move around slightly but I think we can agree they are pretty solid this past six months and up until end of Feb 24. GL Vas

Hi ITT,

I know your not a fan of Gervais Williams of Premier Miton :)

But from his interview just eight weeks ago, with the sp at around 10p he talked about the 25% success rate and what this would mean for Cyan if continued, but finished off by saying that even a 10% win rate from here would translate into a clear winner , and that's just India rollout.

The fall in share price then in February was put down to lack of news, and since then we have had no news ...so news is expected, but peeps getting bored and restless.

You have to admit that the trades are so small, must be PIs , and yesterday just £35 k traded or something close. GL Vas

Morning LT and All,

Historically Cyan have maintained a 25% market share, and if this continues to be the rule of thumb in terms of wins going forward then its quite obvious really, that there was always going to be a 75% failure rate, where 75% of the available market going to be awarded to the competition.

The reasons for this 75% failure rate could well already be baked in, such a s solution required, include costs , as well as other variables.

Therefore, i think we should re examine our expectations and prepare for some surprises because even if we succeed , we could well lose approx. 75% of the available market.

There is also the chance that we could beat our historic average also.

On the back of news that " Wi-SUN FAN Becomes the National Standard for India Smart Meter RF Communication Networks", and Cyan being just one of a few company's in India presently with this certification.

quote

"Phil Beecher, President and CEO of Wi-SUN Alliance. “This recognition is also a huge growth opportunity for member companies based in India, including Cisco, Renesas, Silicon Labs, Texas Instruments, Exegin, and CyanConnode, as well as those looking to expand into the Indian market.”

We have to take it that all others ( especially our competition) will now need to go though a certification process to access BIs / wi-Sun standards certification .

I imagine that could be one reason for a hold up in awards, but just a guess on my part.

On top of that ( which is excellent news for CC, and should have been RNSd) ...JC has now come out with a paper saying that there has been recently a trend of some AMISPS selecting cheaper, possibly inferior technology, at the risk of long term failure of SLA'S, and possibly extra cost.

Which may be the reason they have now aligned BIS and WI-SUN- so every device is aligned in future.

I think JC should have just concentrated on the excellent news about how Wi-SUN FAN is now the new BIS industry standard, Cyan is involved, and is now adopted by Bureau of Indian Standards which will move everyone involved in the 250 m smart meter rollout AND the development of Smart city's in India under the same umbrella.

"[India Smart Grid Forum] ISGF has been closely associated with Wi-SUN Alliance for over a decade and we complement the ground breaking work done by Phill Beecher and his team at Wi-SUN over the years. Wi-SUN’s field area network (FAN) standard has emerged as the global standard which is adopted by IEEE as IEEE 2857 and by Bureau of Indian Standards as IS:18010(Part4/Sec1). This is a great achievement and in India we should ideally make it mandatory for all smart metering and smart city applications which will ensure interoperability between different systems and reduce total cost of ownership of all applications” said Reji Pillai, President (ISGF), Chairman, Global Smart Energy Federation (GSEF)"

Morning LT and Thanks.

It seems to me we may be held in a trading range until we get trading range breaking news. So if you cant beat them - join them seems to be the order of the day. GL Vas