Member Info for Vascular

Just rough calculations on a rollout in Europe- look amazing at even half the numbers and speed I have guessed at here.

1200 total shops to supply in EU. at say 100 new shops per month being stocked and selling,. Therefore, over the next twelve months with say 20 units sold per shop per week = 80 units per shop sold per month x £40 per unit x 100 shops.

Month 1 = £320 k

M 2 = £640 k

M 6 = £ 1.9 m

M 9 = £2.8 m

M 12 = £3.8 m per month , every month and increasing

We are also told that the only limitation here is money to manufacture stock to sell. All revenue above will be used for manufacturing more product , which will again be recycled back into manufacturing or stock to feed the increasing rollout.

Trading finance will kick in end of year with passably 30 m plus available for further supply of stock to increase pace of rollout and revenue recycles again.

All the above over next 12 months maybe, along with the beginning of rollout in Asia market to around 16,000 retail and online stores . Each month adding even further revenue.

Then also USA , South America and Middle East etc to come.

This sound bad but i think is true. The only thing this product must do well ,is sell well. Often new products live and die on user reviews immediately on product release but with this product which is clinically proven to work , but also the product is one where end results can not be seen by the user, or felt or touched ....the goodness is inside- so very hard to give negative reviews unless the cream is oily etc, which we are told it is not.

Brilliant Interview. What an amazingly open and frank interview, with lots of big numbers to hopefully look forward too.

From what i heard it looks like the Asia rollout will start much earlier, sometime this year - that will be a RNS to enjoy.

Yes, it's going to be all about sales .....amazing they are already talking about beating year end 25 guidance. Again, fingers crossed this turns out to be a must have product.

Https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1993038#:~:text=REC%20Limited%2C%20a%20Maharatna%20Central,Electric%20Vehicles%2C%20Battery%20Storage%20and

Maybe RECPDCL or similar may partner with Cyan to provide a Direct Debit Facility (DDF).

Its been done before.

Maybe https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/press-releases/recpdcl-inks-implementation-contracts-and-ddf-agreements-for-gujarat-with-amisps/

My understanding is the SPV will likely only be incorporated once cyan has secured an award in India. Once we identify a new SPV for India then we can safely assume cyan have been awarded a contract under the AMISP umbrella.

I seem to remember ( as the link below supports) that last year we where finding SPVs for several Genus awards , and others - long before the actual awards where made published and named.

https://www.tndindia.com/genus-power-incorporates-spvs-for-amisp-projects/

ITT and LT, Can i ask you both and others what your reading is of the answer regarding the present day win rates....

Answer .In terms of no. of bids 29% ( win rate)

in terms of volume 16%

If i am correct, !! To me it looks as if we are winning approx. 30% of all bids we enter presently. However, the volume of meters in each of these winning bids is quite small ( as only covering 16% of the 100% of units available in total) as opposed to some of the bids we are not winning ( remaining 84%).

This might be due to the framework agreement provides only relatively small tranches from the main award over time, as each tranche is only counted as an award once given to Cyan form the total number in the agreement, or maybe just as the tenders have fallen so far and will even out over time , and may explain why they have gone down the AMISP route for the next round of smart meters -so to get larger slices of and higher revenues from the pie on offer.

What do you and others think ? GL Vas

Morning Alfie.

My understanding is they have decided to park Sol / the sun cream and specifically concentrate on the cosmetics industry, especially this new massive SE Asia and China opportunity.

If you look at a few proactive interviews going back a couple of years they talk about in future they may well add some SPF to SOL and have a novel, unique and possible market disruptor in the sun cream market that not only protects and heals the skin layers from sunshine inside the skin, and protect from cancer but is also a barrier to sunlight getting into the skin which is your typical sun cream......( another massive market) .

I like everything about this company at the moment. And really admire how they have got to this position without all the usual drama and mistakes made by your usual small caps, and of course they have so far achieved everything they have stated they will achieve at launch...long may it continue.

I also like the fact that these guys who are fundamentally scientists, are wise enough to realise they may well not be able to run a business , with massive and complex supply and manufacturing decisions will let the company we run, by third party contractors who should know what they are doing. GL Vas

What i do not understand is why there is not more publicity and discussion in media bout this share, especially the cosmetics industry.

Thanks for your view CB.

regrading housing in India

It looks like India will need to provide at least 10 million new smart meters per year ..just to keep up with the 10 m new homes built each year and growing in India.

"Cleveland OH, January 23, 2024 – According to the Freedonia Group study, new housing construction levels in India are forecast to increase 4.1% per year on average to 11.3 million units in 2028.

Why!

continued expansion in the country’s middle class

ongoing migration from rural areas to cities

continued government support for the construction of affordable apartments and subsidies for first-time homebuyers

In 2023, there were 301.3 million existing homes in India, In the same year, India added 9.2 million new housing units. The number of new housing units constructed increased almost every year between 2003 and 2023.

https://www.freedoniagroup.com/press-releases/new-housing-construction-in-india-forecast-to-rise-over-4-annually-through-2028

Hi Gizmo and All.

Found the 16 %!

So some statistics and copied them from presentation.

(Cyan ) Holds the largest RF deployment share in the country, approximately 45%, showcasing our leadership in communication solutions for smart metering page 9 slides

In the Qs and As section at 57 min and 15 secs this question was asked.

Is the Cyan Win rate still at 45%?

JC answers

In terms of no. of bids 29% ( win rate)

in terms of volume 16%

So am correct in thinking we are winning approx. 30% of all bids we compete for in India , which translates into 16% of the total volume ( or meters) available from these awards. !

Maybe this explains the move into an AMISP which could bring in larger awards and higher revenue / better margins etc ,

Anyone know how these figures would translate if these figures where to remain so through out the rollout?

If we say 300 million meters for tender in total rollout in India. Cyan with an approx. win rate of 30% of bids ...but we do not know the value of each bid, not sure of mix hardware / software etc .- so no help.

However, presently the win rate above translates into 16% volume ( i take this to mean actual smart meters) which would translate into volume bids won at approx. 16% of 300 million = approx. 50 m smart meters over course of rollout if figures remain same.

Does this seem plausible?

I initially thought the 16% sounded low, but if this is anywhere near correct then, looks good, plus with AMISP opportunity's could improve significantly.

Happy to be corrected . GL Vas

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/qa-session-2

In the presentation we were informed that CC Holds the largest RF deployment share in the country, approximately 45%, showcasing our leadership in communication solutions for smart metering.

He also mentioned a 16% figure. Can anyone recall what the 16% figure related too. I have tried to find it but seems to be hiding.

thanks Vas

Several things i liked from todays presentation

Revenue will at least be 10% above market expectations , results end of July.

Confirmation that CCs relationship with Genus is still on, and continuing to work together.

The AMISP development will now open up yet another route into approx. a further 120 million meter opportunity so to increase market share in future.

Only a very small percentage of AMISP awards have so far been made to subcontractors - so the bulk of approx. 120 million meter awards yet still to come, plus good opportunities in UAE / Middle East and Africa.

Cheers Vas

We know that Ratna remained employed with CC until March 24, yet started work at NCC six months earlier in OCTOBER 23 , this makes me think he is there with CC blessing.

What is even more extraordinary is that in the December 23 NCC published their quarterly Magazine and if you look at pages 28-31 you will see the "Welcome to NCC " Page with a list of all new starters at NCC that previous quarter.

Surprisingly it does not include Ratna, who started that quarter BUT does include at least two employees whom had left Cyanconnode to work at NCC that quarter and are both stated as "reporting to Garapati Ratna Kumar, Executive Vice President!!"

These ex cyanconnode employees are

Palli Deepak: joined NCC as Assistant General Manager in Electrical Division and is

reporting to Garapati Ratna Kumar, Executive Vice President. Prior to joining us, he was

associated with CyanConnode Pvt. Ltd., as Senior Manager (Field Applications), etc etc

and

Krishna Prasad joined NCC as Joint General Manager in Electrical Division and is

reporting to Garapati Ratna Kumar, Executive Vice President. Prior to joining us he was

associated with Cyanconnode Pvt Ltd., Gurugram as Cloud Solutions Architec etc etc

Strangely i thought i would do a word search throughout magazine for Genus, HPL, Intellismart, Montecarlo ,and other big players in the smart meter industry - none of these company's came up with one mention in the entire magazine but Cyan had three employees start that quarter with only just two names mentioned.

Start at page 29

https://ncclimited.com/magazine/samashti-issue-67.pdf

GL Vas

Hi ITT,

They all come across as ambitious to me.

The India SM rollout started out with competition world wide, then its just India competitors, now its just competitors on the empanelment lists, and their Indian partners and many of the same high flyers, and advisors keep turning up in different company's, meetings, or lists of advisory groups....

But what is exciting is that the Amount of money which is allocated to this rollout has not changed, and probably will grow - yet the pond in which the main solution providers are in, an where the money will be spent has shrunk and Cyan, who describe themselves as the the largest private player in India is now a AMISP, and is now sharing this same pond.

Last week we were sub contractors this week we are one of the service providers.

Must be good news if only because this money could be handed out anytime now, and continue over the next couple of years...it can't remain a slow burner for much longer.

If you read from "Financing structures"

https://www.pfie.com/story/4513642/meters-get-smart-in-india-xnbk3rg6f2#:~:text=Project%20costs

Hi LT,

Yes it did. If Cyan can access this funding then that would solve probably the biggest unanswered question in the room, regarding the AMISP role. Thanks for reminding me :).

Hi ITT,

Like you I find this strange but to be honest I also find it strange that NCC , have not posted on any social media platform a welcome message , welcoming Ratna to NCC and stating his new position.

In fact there is nothing published from either company, that i can find.

On his IN page, under his employment history.

It states he started working at NCC in October 23 , and left Cyanconnode in March 24- so for six months he was active in both company's, and then transferred over seemingly permanently to NCC.

I find that quite strange also, but I'm hoping it might signify it was a tenuous move at first ( six months ) , then made permanent, and may signify a future partnership or something positive.

But , yes i agree that cyan should have announced Ratna' s or any significant members move .

Before any company becomes a qualified AMISP I understand there are certain criteria they have to meet - if we put the technological criteria to one side as Cyan have a working, tested full solution - so qualify in this area.

There must be strict rules around finances, and financial backing that all AMISPS must be expected to provide evidence of, before they will be even considered to be empanelled and compete as an AMISP.

I can't see Cyan raising this kind of money, on a regular basis , as the numbers should be to large - so Cyan must have a financial partner in place now - or how else did they qualify as an AMISP!

Unless Cyan are in with RECPDC , re RECPDC funding.

If Cyan as a AMISP won a one million plus smart meter award, for example - who's going to fund the manufacture of the meters, for example - my understanding is its the AMISP with a grant from the government of 15% or something. But its still big money.

Morning All,

Another RECPDCL document here published a week after the previous one on 14th May. This document is for a EOI for smart meter manufacturers to come forward to supply RECPDCL with smart meters .

The previous document - date 6th May was RECPDCL offering a EOI for providing "ADVANCE METERING INFRASTRUCTURE (AMI) PREPAID SOLUTION".

This new document states..

"RECPDCL is also in the process of Empanelling HES and Communication

Infrastructure Service Providers. The HES and Communication Infrastructure

Service Providers shall have the responsibility to integrate their HES and

Communication Infrastructure with all the meter manufacturers empanelled

under this EOI. Accordingly, all Meter Manufacturers applying under this EOI

shall be required to extend all possible support to HES and Communication

Infrastructure Service Providers engaged under separate EOI for integration of

11 | P a g e

their meters with HES and Communication Infrastructure. This envisages that all

meter makes are integrated with the all HES and Communication Infrastructure

Service Providers empanelled by RECPDCL."

https://recpdcl.in/assets/data/tenders/EoI_Manufacture_15052024.pdf

Cheers Vas

Afternoon tony and All

I agree its getting difficult to follow but in a good way, it seems.

Here is something to add to the mix .

The EOI only came out on 6th May and only an expression of Interest ( EOI) but RECPDCL is a subsidiary of REC, and is also funding both DGVCL) and (PGVCL), in a rollout that involves the deployment of 17.7 Lakh Smart Meters and 23.6 Lakh Smart Meters , with Cyan involved.

"RECPDCL aims to expand its service offering in the Smart Meter implementation works.

As a prerequisite, RECPDCL shall have to empanel itself as an Advance Metering

Infrastructure (AMI) – Service Provider with Nodal Agency REC Ltd. This EOI aims to invite

Smart Metering system providers to offer their end-to-end solution and aid RECPDCL in its

empanelment process. This EOI doesn’t entail any financial transaction between RECPDCL

and the selected bidder."

https://recpdcl.in/assets/data/tenders/EoI_AMISP_06052024.pdf

So are RECPDCL going to compete with everyone else in the AMISP arena - they have the funding in pllce it seems - so all they need is a partner or two to have the winning solution.

Interesting times....I think the only thing going to make this sp move up, and stay up is regular announcements of increasing revenue going forward., then eventually the penny will drop or (hopefully go up) that Cyan are worth more in the future than they are today ( as they are holding all these foreword looking orders than need installing) .

I am very interested now what sort of funding Cyan have secured to enable them to become an AMISP and compete for multi million pound awards.....they must have finance secured so to allow them to be empanelled and compete in future awards.

GL ALL

Gives an update on what is coming next for Smart Metering with the Wi-SUN Alliance, but its what he says at around 9.51 into interview that stood out for me. He discusses what next for Wi- Sun including their new certification programme for the next generation including security, lower latency , higher data rates etc and then says

"they are now looking at large deployments in India, for example" and goes on to explain India are about to roll out 250 million smart meters, and some of these will go onto cellular and other technologies but we are expecting a large number going onto Wi -Sun technology "

Good to hear it from a third party.

https://embeddedcomputing.com/application/industrial/smart-energy-utilities/embedded-executive-choosing-a-medium-for-smart-metering-with-the-wi-sun-alliance