RE: India's 250 million smart meter target by 2025 ........13 Jan 2024 11:41
Morning LT.
My understanding is that the 2 x 20 million orders referred to for IntelliSmaret and Adani are not individual single tenders but refer to their accumulated order books currently - so they both have received approx. 20 million smart meter awards in total, but from various different customers, since this process started. I do not read it as new 20 m meter awards to each.
Which, means between them they have 40 million meters banked - nearly 40% of the total amount of awards made so far , which we are informed is around 99 million meters.
If we assume that between now and June 24 the 99 million, already allocated meters will be given out to the subcontractors such as Cyan.
So by June 24, we should know the full extent of Cyans win rate from the 99M already allocated meters, as they would have been informed and would need to inform their investors!
So, If for example Cyan continue with a win rate of say 20% then we would expect another 15 m meters to be allocated to Cyan from this 60 m first tranche ( all things being equal, which we know they are not as Cyan could receive larger awards in the second tranche of 150 m meters, and the sizes of each order are unpredictable ) but as a general rule of thumb.
Therefore, Cyan would have their existing 5 million meters, and another 15 million meters, approx. 20 m meters allocated to them in total by June 24.
Then their is the second tranche of 150m smart meters ...
It would be good for confidence and share price if we hold our win rate in the first tranche, but there is always the chance that we really excel in the second tranche. Exciting times ahead GL Vas
Do the above assumptions sound reasonable to you (anyone) , and if not can anyone explain the errors in my reasoning.
I do understand the win rate is a gamble, and not a fixed percentage, in fact its probably the most important statistic at this time, and can never really be known until all 250 m smart meters are allocated and started installing.
But its all we have to go with.
The other thought i have is if Cyan did win in total, say 20 million meters in summer this year, and have a installation time period of 27 months ..that works out at around 750,000 units a month over 27 months !! This is surely when Genus and the other ten! or so meter manufacturers would have to step in....Whatever, people presently think about Genus , or any manufacturing business at this time - they will not be turning down manufacturing smart meters at a time when the whole country need smart meters by the bucket full. GL Vas
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