Member Info for Varnish

The RNS this morning shows quite clearly that net cash & receivables are greater than the current market cap. Fair play to @nigelpm who pointed out the ridiculous valuation on the ADVFN board in Oct (when the market cap was actually higher!). If today’s update (incl. all the good news on the Ops front) doesn’t move the share price in the right direction I’m not sure what will.

FT comments on the increasing number of mergers amongst oil and gas drillers with the key attractions being a lower unit cost of production and tax credits from past losses. In conclusion it thinks the EPL has been more successful in prompting mergers than increasing tax receipts! Aside then from the obvious stupidity of the government prolonging the EPL my understanding from JOG's interim results is that they held tax losses on 31 Dec 24 of £62m, against a current market cap of less than £30m. I know others, particularly Dick, have brought up JOG's tax credits before but in this climate of mergers & with these tax losses JOG could be very attractive to another north sea oil and gas driller looking to offset the EPL before it's replaced. Just a thought and happy to be corrected.

Thanks SAS that's really helpful (not).

Thanks Jim, informative as always. Like other LTHs I’m very confident Buchan will go ahead (as you say with or without NEO). The share price may drift until the go ahead is confirmed & some of us may see that as another buying opportunity.

Excellent post EA & totally agree the future now looks very bright. You’re right, inadvertently the government have played a blinder; they’ll have the EPL for the remaining time they’re in office & that was probably job done in their eyes. For those who are able to think beyond the immediate future we can now say the EPL is on its last legs. When the market wakes up to that fact we should see the SP react accordingly.

So WTW do I respect the comments of Zeus & Cavendish, both of whom believe the sell off is hugely overdone or someone who turns up from nowhere and states categorically that the reason JOG rose from around 50p is due mainly to the hope the EPL would be cut short? Answers on a postcard. If you knew anything about JOG you'd know that the EPL being cut short makes little or no difference. Tax payable on the Buchan project will be largely subject to the OGPM - assuming this useless government get re-elected, if not happy days! As JS says any positive news on Buchan will shift the share price at great speed & I don't want to miss out by selling at this oversold price. I called you an idiot for a number of reasons but let's take one example from earlier - "there is little to support this market cap". With a NAV many times the current share price that's just ridiculous. So just like JS I have no interest in what you believe.

Whilst we throw our hands up in the air because the EPL continues until 2030 we should not forget that the OGPM regime is a lot more generous than the current ESIM which was designed so that it was never triggered! Call me a cynic but the more favourable OGPM will take over from the EPL just before the next election (unless we can get rid of this government earlier). Anyway I believe the new OGPM regime makes it more likely that Skerryvore and/or Fynn Beauly will go to FDP. Time will tell.

Zeus believe the new OGPM makes it more likely that Buchan will take a positive FID. No change in valuation (risked NAV 543p) and similar to Cavendish they regard the share price reaction to the Budget as wholly unjustified. I'm very happy with my current exposure to JOG however if this drops below 100p I shall top up again. GLA LTH

I think we can ignore that idiot WTW - clearly drinks different tea to me! Anyway good to see Cavendish's comment this morning on yesterday's share price fall which in their opinion now sees JOG as "grossly oversold". As they say with first production not until 2029 any adjustment of the EPL will have very little impact. I'm sure the Buchan joint venture partners will see it that way too and hopefully they'll give the Buchan project the green light. With the more generous OGPM announced in the Budget I'm certainly feeling more confident about JOG this morning than I was this time yesterday!

The answer is A. In its trading update this morning Serica Energy made it clear that the OGPM will be applied separately to oil & gas. Which is some good news.

Sorry ESIM thresholds for the year ending 31 March 2026 now $76.12 per barrel & 59p (not $) per therm but my point still stands.

Good to hear from you Dick - my reading of the paper, in particular point 2.8, is slightly different. If we assume the ESIM is unlikely to be triggered to end the EPL early because these thresholds are much lower ($71.40/$0.54) then the paper states the OGPM will replace the EPL on 1 April 2030. Mind you I'd love to be wrong.

Good point ALGU and with the oil threshold under the OGPM being $90 per barrel (26/27) this feels more like good news than bad. Looks like the market overreacted earlier.

And the relevance to JOG?? All JOG holders only have their eyes on the Budget.

CEO & CFO meeting tax liability from their own funds rather than selling shares imo shows what they think of the current share price!

Surely the crucial thing to bear in mind is that Prax went into administration in June. That's never going to be the case with JOG so Serica could never hope to acquire JOG at such a low $2.3 per barrel. Anyway given the report in the DT today:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/30/reeves-signals-north-sea-climbdown-blow-to-miliband/

I think we can now say with a high degree of certainty that Buchan will go ahead.

Congratulations Couerdelion, pleased for you! Perhaps it will look a better decision next week.

No need to ramp. Everyone knows JOG is seriously undervalued & only held back by our stupid government that might very slowly be coming to its senses.

Hold my hands, got it wrong. I shall add a few more & keep fingers crossed. Not a great investment strategy I know.

Total nonsense - the last capital raise was in July 25!