Member Info for Varnish

Helpful comments if this was an insolvency situation, which it clearly isn’t.

The market may not get quite as excited as us so I'm going with £3+. Hope it's a lot more! Well done to JOG & all of us who showed patience (love that word).

Not hard to see why with net debt more or less equivalent to current market cap. Pleased to see though that discussions re. refinancing debt due in April 2024 have been positive.

Staying on the positive theme the board expects to meet current market forecasts for the year end of which the consensus is for adjusted EBITDA of £10.2m. That's with adjusted EBITDA at the half year of £2.9m. So as they say the second half should be a lot stronger (and that seems to be the case 3 months in) and so for me a bit more patience is required before we get the rerating that's surely due. Will be interesting to see if ST takes a positive view later today.

Yes, really good results and cash balance at 30 June greater than market cap. With profit for FY24 expected to be at upper end of range of analyst estimates what's not to like!

This is the link: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/small-companies/?page=1

but you'll need to subscribe to IC to read the piece in full.

Consolidation is 2 new shares for every 3 existing.

It's a shame the market doesn't seem to react to ST's recommendation quite in the way it once did. Nonetheless following yesterday's interim's he's penned another piece this morning titled "A potential multi-bagger North Sea oil play". Mentions again the unwarranted discount to fair valuations and predicts a second farm-out is likely to drive an overdue re-rating. So nothing we don't know but good to note his enthusiasm for JOG remains undiminished.

Simon Thompson has this afternoon highlighted JOG's "chronic undervaluation". Thinks a 2nd farm-out will bring this into "sharp focus". ST sees the higher oil price since June and the change in the government's stance on NS oil & gas as positives for JOG - so nothing surprising there but I guess good reason for this reminder that much better times could be just round the corner. Whether this will fall on deaf ears again is a moot point.

At last, comments from a government minister in the FT this morning that Dick (and others) have been stating for some time i.e. it doesn't make sense to buy oil and gas from other countries at a higher cost & twice the carbon emissions! Take a bow Grant Shapps!

....but looks forward to her return after her sabbatical. Could argue the timing's not great but hardly the disaster you suggest.

This still looks priced for bad news so the lack of any bad news and confirmation that they're still looking to deliver the sale of LionFish is a positive in my book. I keep adding small amounts at this level in the hope that the share price will one day reflect fundamentals.

Agree Millario. A cross party policy will never happen as you say but the Tories should certainly counter Starmer & Reeves with some of the points made by Dominic Lawson. Who knows they could also heap some praise on Gary Smith at the GMB for highlighting the weakness in the Labour party's stance on the North Sea oil & gas industry. Probably not going to happen but would stir up a bit of a hornet's nest.

Thanks Surety - it's a very timely article & Gary Smith the GMB union leader is of course absolutely right to flag the national security issue. Given the significant financial backing Labour receives from the GMB it ought to encourage Starmer & Reeves to deliver a more pragmatic message regarding the future of the North Sea Oil & Gas industry - recognising the importance, now AND in the future, of the industry to the UK alongside the green initiatives that they keep banging on about.

Yes an excellent explanation - many thanks DU. Just emphasises again that patience is required to reap the full benefits (notwithstanding the ludicrous EPL in it's current form) of the farm-out deal.

John, to get back to £1,250 you'll need the share price to hit £2.85. 235 shares x £2.85 = £669.75 plus your dividend of £580 gets you to £1,249.75. Quite a jump from £1.9785 but a lot better than £5.32!

I'm holding and will use the dividend to add a few if the price stays around this level.

Good write up from ST in IC today - assuming earnings hit broker's forecast we are looking at a 9% forward dividend yield.

I'd like to think this will be the last comment from BM on JOG and he'll move on as this is clearly not a long term investment for him.

I see this as positive news. I particularly like the fact that non-execs & other members of senior management & employees have been granted options. I suggest you don't have this breadth of awards across the company unless you expect the share price to be a good bit higher than the option price when the options are due to vest (the first tranche in 12 months time). As always patience is required.

I just think this has played out this morning in text book style. Great comments from Dick, as always, at 9.30 and now waiting to see what ST in IC has to say at some point today.

Not sure I fit the description - been in since Sept 2021