Conviction buy14 Jul 2018 17:11
Here you go.
I don't want this to be seen as a worthless ramp, but I've been standing back & trying to get the signals clear in my mind.
Tell me if you don't agree.
1. Since last December Michael's (inc. his wife) shareholding has increased from 36,680,000 (3.49%) to 48m (4.53%). Bought with his own money. He has been buying over the last 12 months.
2. Chris Sangster bought 555,555 shares and Kerim bought 160,000 shares plus bought shares in last years Placing (1,115,384)
3. These latest preliminary results were well above market expectations. Plant grade feed 4.66 g/t up from 3.85 g/t & 2.41 g/t in earlier quarters. Impressive stuff.
4. But the big number for me was 7,171 ozs of gold produced in the quarter, up from 4,866 & 2,145 in earlier quarters. That suggests we could be getting close to 30,000 ozs p.a.not 20,000 ozs p.a. and that is before the extra 5,000 ozs possibly coming into the mine from Kizilcukur next year, without counting ore from Kepez. See below.
That is a major shift and makes our financials look very different. I suspect management guidance of 30,000 ozs p.a. for Tavsan will also be conservative. Could Red Rabbit produce 70,000 ozs p.a. by say 2021/2022?
5. Look at the news that is due during the rest of 2018. First we will get the full Quarterlies in about 3 weeks. If previous patterns are anything to go by, the share should rise into that.
But what else is expected?
a) Salinbas Forestry drill permits & licences - By end of 2018. They continue to work on their data etc. & I believe we can expect more news this side of Xmas.
b) Kizilcukur Internal Feasibility Study & permitting - later in 2018?
c) Kepez - This is being brought forward. It is a high grade asset and they already have secured an E.I.A. permit. Production was scheduled for 2021, but now looks likely in 2019.
d) Tavsan - limited drill programme leading to Resource update.
Can anyone add anything else?
If you stand back and review the potential and the current share price disconnect, surely this has got to be a very strong conviction BUY.