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My post under handle PLasybryn on ADVFN

The third video is out in the series by BizTech Academy - Steve!! Find it on YouTube

About 8 minutes

He is bullish but agrees the fact the debt hasn't yet started to reduce and steady state from Kourossa, that some optimistically hoped for in this latest RNS, wasn't confirmed (probably Q4) means the share price will go sideways for now.

The key here is debt down, share price up. Simple as that. If the gold price also increases in value and AISC numbers are kept below guidance, the turn around looks nailed to me and that could start in late Q3 onwards imo.

The guidance of 85,000 ozs for Yanofilia in 2023 looks likely to be exceeded as well, given in H1 they achieved 60% of that.

So looking forward, even fairly short term, the picture looks potentially very bright here to me. This is probably a great price to accumulate. DYOR

Tom Winnifrith to apparently interview Dr Kerim Sener on 14th August.

Should be a good in depth interview based on how good the last one was with Tom. Like him or loath him, he is invested in AAU and knows the business well. He also knows Kerim going back perhaps 15 years. He knows the right questions to ask and won't be Woke!

Kepez is close by to Kizilcukur and this is from the RNS we had on Kepez on just 13th March this year. (see below)

These two high grade, highly prospective areas are going to extend the Life of Mine at Kiziltepe by quite a bit in my opinion. Probably at least 3 years if not more.

KEPEZ: GEOPHYSICAL SURVEY RESULTS AT KEPEZ RNS 13th March 2023

“These are some of the most exciting exploration results we have ever reported from the broader Kiziltepe Sector in many years and we are highly motivated to do the work necessary to make a significant discovery."

Zak Mir on Bulletin Board Heros says 2.8/3.2p is possible for AAU in fairly short order. Fingers crossed. Thanks to Rennicks for bringing this to my attention on Twitter.

I see it is possible to access the full WH Ireland Analyst Note on the Ariana Web Site.

Very pleased this is being made available on the site. Good move by Ariana.

They see fair value at 5.5p per share using conservative inputs which aligns with Panmure Gordon and my own assessment as I mentioned earlier today. Worth a read I'm sure.

I've done my own very rough & ready value calculations.

Panmure Gordon have it as 5.49p for this year. My figure comes out at 5.83p using a 5 times FCF multiplier, gold at $1850 and costs at $700 per oz.

For next year I get 6.47p assuming 15,000 ozs from Tavsan (50% of full production) with gold $2000 and costs $750 for Kiziltepe and $1000 per oz for Tavsan.

In 2025 assuming Kiziltepe is still producing 18,000 ozs and Tavsan 30,000 ozs I get 11.91p. Here I use costs of $800 for Kilitepe and $1100 per oz for Tavsan. Gold I have estimated at $2500 per oz. I've taken no account of Silver.

I've added nominal values for Salinbas/Ardale, Explorations, Venus, WTR, Asgard and of course cash.

I'm sure it is wrong but gives a flavour of my expectations. I know you all tried to estimate the SP at the year end. Mine would be 5.5p. Cheers

SP Angel today:-

Conclusion: Management have worked fast and hard to produce a comprehensive Definitive Feasibility Study for the Ewoyaa lithium project which optimises and extends the PFS published last September. We see Atlantic as probably the world’s most promising, undervalued, near-term, hard-rock, lithium mining project.

Great update.

Anyone at the AGM able to provide some feedback please?

Hope we have seen the bottom hear and can now start to recover to fair value.

I wonder if anyone has attended this evenings Investor Show at Mayfair. Would love to get some feedback.

Where are we on FEED and the DFS please?

I was amazed to look at Figure 3 of the Hizarliyayla RNS. The 8/9km Giants footsteps leading out from Hot Maden, the first one landing at Hizarliyayla and then the next in our Salinbas project. I remember Kerim saying this was likely a long time ago, describing it as a giant walking out with the distance between each being similar. But this RNS just teased us with this diagram, no mention other than the diagram, of the possibility of yet another high grade Breccia Pipe type system in our Salinbas Project. What does all this mean? Are we keeping it all low key for now to avoid unwanted interest until we have more affirmative data? Could this be a Co. maker? With no presentation at the AGM and no media interviews done by Kerim on the back of the last two RNS's, we are a bit in the dark. And as far as I know no one has read either of the Broker's views on these developments. Out of interest, does anyone know the target price WH Ireland have placed on our shares?

I submitted some questions to the AGM before I knew there wasn't a formal Q&A session, but apparently the directors will be there to chat after the formal aspect. I hope some can attend and quiz them for some more meat on the bone. Obviously this isn't going to be a five minute wonder but the interest could build if positive data akin to Hot Maden is slowly released. We saw that with Mariana Resources. How long will it take to complete the remaining 3000 metres of drilling at Hizarliyayla? When will we get some information about this further discovery at the Salinbas Project? What are the plans and timescales going forward?

This Co. isn't driven by the share price of managing shareholder expectations. It seems to like pitching information updates into the AGM, this being a big annual milestone when is does focus on shareholders.

That presents a Co. which most short term shareholders aren't comfortable with. They haven't the confidence to trust the Co. to deliver and want more regular updates. So this proves to be an investment best suited to those who trust the science and trust the prime movers. We will see.

This is more like it.

Kerim on Red Bull this morning.

Dr. Kerim Sener, Managing Director, commented:

“These are an impressive set of initial drilling results from the Hizarliyayla prospect. We have long suspected the potential of the Hizarliyayla area, since it was first systematically mapped by our team in 2017. Surface sampling undertaken since that time, including some of the brilliant new geological work by our team in 2022, continued to reaffirm our view that the mineralisation and alteration encountered at surface represented a high-level expression of a substantial hydrothermal system. Consequently, we recognised the requirement to undertake deep drilling of this prospect and these initial results continue to underpin this understanding.

Notably, Hizarliyayla is at an elevation of approximately 1,500m, whereas the high-grade gold zone of the Hot Maden deposit occurs 8km to the south at an elevation of about 900m. Interestingly, the grade of both gold and silver intercepted in the current drilling has a tendency to increase with depth, suggesting that the deeper we drill, the better the grade and perhaps increasing proximity to a high-grade gold zone akin to Hot Maden. The elevation difference noted here indicates that we may need to drill holes well over 600m deep in order to encounter a potential Hot Maden-type discovery. Despite the mineralised intercepts being typically fairly narrow and deep, these broader observations regarding the prospectivity make these some of the most exciting exploration drilling results that we have ever announced.”

Part Two:
5. Kiziltepe Life of mine - I’m surprised we have to wait another year for a further round of Resource/Reserve estimations and confirmed extended Life of Mine, especially given by then the production window will be 1 year. Given all the drill work that has been done, this does seem to be cutting it a bit fine and unlikely to be a positive in the eyes of investors. But Kerim detailed so many other opportunities including high grade zones at Kepez, (“lots of potential” - even including a possible underground asset) and Arzu North (“could be a game changer in its own right”) etc. He is relaxed and as always it is a question of trust me I know what I am doing!
Said we could expect news from Kepez west soon.

6. Dividends - “progressive” and “as operations develop”. I take that to mean waiting till Tavsan is up and running and profits are flowing. Shame they couldn’t be more precise, but at least we know is is definitely planned.

I would have liked to have seen the shareholder friendly broker issue properly addressed, not kicked into the long grass again and I would have liked to have some outline timescales for a Salinbas E.I.A. and P.F.S. I would have liked to hear more about how they plan to take things forward if resources at say Hizarliyayla are skewed to copper rather than gold, as it the case at Hot Maden and I would have liked some timescales on workflow from Hizarliyayla.
The very small Board make-up/succession planning etc. is still an area out of bounds for Kerim even though lip-service is paid to it in the AR & A’s.

Overall a good effort and with the face to face event planned for April, perhaps as Biggles says they are listening and progress is being made.

Ariana Resources - Question & Answers.These are my interpretations.

For such a small stock, I think the Co. should feel privileged to have so many well informed and interested investors. The depth and span of questions was most impressive and shows the knowledge amongst the investors here.

I drew two things from that:-
In my opinion the number of searching questions confirms there is a gap in the Co’s communication. If the Company was communicating effectively it shouldn’t be necessary to have to ask 43 questions of a Company this size (£33m Co.)
The Company should consider this a positive and a compliment that so many investors want to understand ever aspect of this exciting growth Co,

My positive takes:-
1.Venus/Apiliki situation is probably better than we thought. Just saying it “lapsed” was crass communication, but we now know the licence owner was probably being unrealistic and wanted too much for it, which took it above the value of the expected Venus IPO and made it a none starter. With the Venus IPO ready to go when the markets stabilise, I expect this could still proceed at a more sensible price.

2. Tavsan. It seems Zenit did everything they should have done to obtain the E.I.A. and yet a small group of individuals managed to put a spanner in the spokes. Given the fact that Ariana have valid forestry permits and all forestry activities have been completed in accordance with the law and under the guidance of the Forestry Department and despite the fact that all land required for the mine build has been purchased by the operating company and redesignated as non-agricultural, the EIA was called into question. That seems madness to me. But in light of the facts regarding compliance this must be just a temporary delay. I estimate we could still be back on track around late June/early July, which means Tavsan could still be in production end of this year. But even if it slips into 2024, it will in all likelihood be early in 2024 in my opinion.

3. Tavsan. The other big bit of good news re: Tavsan is that it is being self funded, with-out the need for debt. Funding coming from profits accumulated by the J.V. from Kiziltepe operations.

4. Confirmation re: no options is very positive in my opinion.

5. Project Leopard licences - the process we adopted to get the three prospective licences avoided going to auction and clearly saved the Company quite a bit of money. Kerim said the cost & fees “is not material to our business”. New field work to start Q2.

5. Kiziltepe Life of mine - I’m surprised we have to wait another year for a further round of Resource/Reserve estimations and confirmed extended Life of Mine, especially given by then the production window will be 1 year. Given all the drill work that has been done, this does seem to be cutting it a bit fine and unlikely to be a positive in the eyes of investors. But Kerim detailed so many other opportunities including high grade zones at Kepez, (“lots of potential” - eve

Nothing on the pre-submitted questions which surely are the main ones Investors want answered. We have to wait for written answers. That seems madness. Investors will have given great thought to these pre-submitted questions picking out things that are most important to them. We wanted to hear Kerim's actual verbal comments surely. Doing it this way makes it a whitewash event.

Seems more like 250% upside. Strange

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Gq5lA159ys

Base Resources Ltd with ticker (LON:BSE) now has a potential upside of 70.5% according to Canaccord Genuity.
https://www.***************************/base-resources-ltd-70.5-potential-upside-indicated-by-canaccord-genuity/4121109029

Sorry my mistake the share price was 2.1p on 20th March 2020, so not as terrible as I first thought. Of course it was also over 5p in 2021 making the fall to todays 2.5p look pretty abysmal.

Somethings these sort of wake up calls can be just the sort of call to action that we need. Let's hope it stirs the 1+3 part time board into action and we see an end to complacency and a return to "Ariana with attitude". If they can't build share holder value from these miserable levels then my name Gunga Din.

Am I right in thinking the share price is back to where it was in 2016 some 7 years ago. Allow for inflation and it would be even longer. And look how gold has increased in value over that period.
What has the Co. be doing for 7/8 years to create shareholder value? Not suggesting that should be a question for 15th, but you have to ask yourself if this team of 1+3 part timers are really up to the job. I wonder if they are asking themselves that same question (have KPI's etc.) or is it all someone else's fault? Wake up call moment.