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Stripper is calling Monday "Nocado Monday" as he sees the below:

"What's going to happen to the SP on Monday once all the shops again???
Maybe even Friday in anticipation.....
Testing the teens again???

Let's see what happens. The shops reopening has been known for sometime by the market. No new news there.

Ocado listed in its Feb 2021 annual results that they currently have £2.1bill in cash or cash equivalents.

There won't be the need to fundraise for the foreseeable. They will need to fundraise, as they gave done in the past, if they sign another major overseas Ocado Solutions contract. They have always been upfront and transparent on this issue.

If they sign another contract, which would boost the share price, I personally will happily take part in the fundraising as an Ocado shareholder.

modsto123,

I can't see any broker rating releases re Ocado today. Can you post any link re the Citigroup reiteration of £29 price target today? I can see they reiterated in Jan this year.

Thanks

The question was pointed at you Neil. I am an Ocado shareholder. I post on here to share my views/ information with Ocado shareholders and those interested in Ocado. I believe that by collaborating on this board we can collectively further our understanding of Ocado.

Each Ocado CFC has roughly 1,700 robots. Roughly 40 CFC's are on order. The grocers know who has the faster technology....

As outlined by edtheeuph on this board Ocado's technology is vastly superior to Autostores. As Ocado's around 40 contracted overseas CFCs open up around the world their technology revenue will dwarf that of Autostore.

Ocado have not disregarded their parents. The truth is completely the opposite to that. They have always stressed the importance of their IP and successfully gained over 350 patents regarding their unique online grocery solutions. Details below:

https://www.reddie.co.uk/2020/04/09/the-rise-of-ocado-an-intellectual-property-success-story/

One company is suing them. They cannot stop competitors trying to delay Ocado's growing dominance in the online grocery technology field..

Agree Chilting, I am confident also. 3 directors other than Jorn have bought shares recently. One of which was, Richard Haythornthwaite, the new chairman of Ocado. He purchased £100k of shares at around £26/27. He was chairman of Mastercard for 15 years. He would be a pretty good judge of Ocado currently. His choice to make a big purchase at that price is interesting when added to Jorn and the other 2 directors current confidence in the Ocado share price...

Stripper,

Autostore have their bots in many different locations helping their customers. Ocado have their bots super densely concentrated in their CFCs.

The crucial difference between the 2 companies bots is that Ocado robots can complete the same job a lot faster. This has been well described by edtheeuph recently.

Stripper,

The Kroger Ocado contract is for 20 CFC's minimum. Other contracts do not detail how many CFC's will be ordered. A reasonable read across Ocado's current overseas contracts (USA, Canada, Japan, France, Australia, Sweden) would suggest that 40+ CFCs will be built in the future from these existing contracts. A more optimistic view would be that these customers will order more CFCs from Ocado than currently envisaged. Also that they then order mini CFC's on top to facilitate Ocado zoom service. Of course on top of this you have the UK CFC's whose number is expanding over the next few years..

I was typing from memory. Actually the first overseas CFC deal was signed mid 2017, groupe casino in France. Their first CFC is operational and revenue will flow from that as Ocado receives a percentage of all sales made through the CFC.

Tech is a small part of revenue currently. It will be a huge one going forward. With 40+ CFCs operational around the globe the revenue that flows from these contracts will dwarf the current revenue from Ocado retail in the UK.

The shares tick upwards again. Interesting times....

As more CFC's are built the cost of building the next one decreases. Significant economies of scale that will make the contracts more lucrative for Ocado. With so many CFC'S there will be a large base of working knowledge and further improvements in efficiency will follow quickly.

So much potential to grow outside of online grocery, this will become apparent in the years to come..

It does Kslonee. As more are built they become cheaper and cheaper to build. They will also become more efficient as any issues are learnt and rectified quickly. The increased cost saves will make the Ocado CFC more attractive. The potential to expand outside online grocery is huge. This will become apparent in the years to come...

Astrazeneca Oxford jab not now recommended for under 30's in the UK. Could complicate the UK vaccine timetable...

True chilting, Berenberg estimated that 190+ CFC's were needed to justify a 2900p price. With this current lower SP I'd think 80-100 cfcs are expected to justify the price. I've published my research here before - I think 190+ CFC's is achievable if the current contracts go well and ramp up. Then there are a myriad of opportunities that can open up for Ocado in new geographies. They are focussing currently in countries with high labour rates as that's where the cost save of the Ocado model is greatest. In time countries with cheap labour, like China and India, present great opportunities but that will be in a few years to come.

Stripper, everyone knows the shops are reopening, no surprised there... That's all factored into the current share price.

I don't think so Chilting. Factored into Ocado's current valuation is an assumption that they will sign several more overseas contracts. That is a fair assumption in my view. The route to large profits comes when the many CFC's start to open. I think Jorn simply saw the stock as at a cheap price. He was correct, he bought at a great price.

The aspirational phase for Ocado was pre their first Ocado Solutions contract, pre 2014 roughly. Since then the major contracts have rolled in and the aspirations have become reality. Since 2014 we have been in the execution part of the reality phase. The reality is that Ocado have major, lucrative contracts with huge grocers all around the globe.

Even Tesco acknowledged Ocado is primarily a technology business, see below.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52659193

In Tesco's annual report, the remuneration committee explained: "As Ocado has seen a significant shift away from being a retail-focused business towards a technology-focused business during the performance period, the committee decided to remove Ocado from the benchmark from 16 May 2018. This was the date on which a clear pattern emerged of Ocado pursuing a technology strategy."

That date is the day before Ocado announced a major deal to supply its technology to US supermarket group Kroger.

Current revenue is one thing, future revenue is another. They have to be looked at together to get the whole revenue picture for a company. The future revenue predictions for the international contracts Ocado Solutions have are extremely large. Once the majority of the CFC's open in the coming years these revenues will rise steeply

Ocado is listed as a technology share.

A division of Ocado - Ocado retail - is a retailer. This retail business is responsible for around 10-15% of Ocado's market capitalization. The other 85% comprises the value of Ocado Solutions. This division sells software, robotics, Ai, to to facilitate the online grocery operations of other grocers.

The tech side current revenue is low but as the international CFC's open it will grow rapidly. Ocado group receive a percentage of each product sold through one of their CFCs. Krogers first CFC opening this month. They have 19 others planned. The revenue from just that contract will dwarf current Ocado retail UK earnings.
Ocado is currently contracted to build 40+ CFCs around the world. Existing partners expected to ramp that number up further.

Some of Ocado's patents are being disputed by 1 company. Many large tech companies experience legal challenges to their parents/IP. Ocado are persuing lawsuits of their own against Autostore in multiple geographies.