Member Info for Urraca

To be fair, Jim posted it on the PVR thread. I hope you don't mind if I post here what I posted there in response:
"It is a somewhat superficial brief overview though. The two issues, DCCAE and APEC are not necessarily connected. DCCAE will need to justify their decision if they choose to refuse permission. And recent statements suggest they're not completely away with the green loon fairies. So I expect the permit to be granted, and fairly soon. The APEC funding issue is far more opaque. It seems reasonable to infer that the Chinese Govt stands behind them, probably at several removes. They are awash with dollars from supporting US Govt borrowing, and looking for good uses for them. They also have no truck with climate alarmism - their problems are much more short term. And I can see the rationale for a government not providing funding until another gvernment has provided the necessary permits. It's how bureaucracies work. The huge BUT in the equation is, BUT do they stand behind APEC? We will find out soon. "

And, Bridgedog, we don't know why APEC haven't paid yet, although as the RNSs have said, the funds haven't been needed yet. So we can only surmise. Goldman Sachs have not sold their PVR position though. And they probably know more than we do.

It is interesting that he's gone so soon after PW. Let's hope this indicates a repositioning of the Board towards action, and away from BS.

Oh come on, Love_You. You need at least a fully equipped multi-gym, and a swimming pool, even if it's got to be quite small. You're talking at least a personal 747. At a bare minimum.

I agree with you about London though. I've lived there a few times, and have no real desire to return,

DCCAE officials will be preparing, or have already prepared, a submission to the Minister. It will either flag up any issues raised by the public, if there were any, and if there were propose how to deal with them. Or it will highlight any deficiencies in the Exola submission. Hard to believe after the repeated requests for further details. And, assuming all the boxes have been ticked, it will invite the Minister to take a decision. Issue the permit. Or not. A decent submission will point out the pros and cons of bith issuing and not issuing.

A good Minister will turn it round quickly. A bad will will avoid taking a decision by agonising over the grammer, spelling, and general drafting if the submission, rather than the content.

But if we don't get a decision before 5 July I'm gonna scream.

Yes it is weird that the steady buying does not appear to have an impact on the price. The steady selling sure did. This is a most puzzling company, with the apparant large disconnect between NAV and market cap.

Malcy has lost all the credibility he earned for his one lucky year in 2015. He's doing worse than Woodford now. Still, why not continue to milk it to pay for all the pies?

There may not be a provision in the farmout agreement that makes the payment conditional on the permission being forthcoming from DCCAE, but APECs backers may nevertheless be taking that view. If DCCAE block this again, I imagine its dead in the water, as it were, with the noy option for Barryroe to sue the Government to try and recover sunk costs. If the permission is forthcoming, but APEC still won't stump up, then it's much the same scenario, but with APEC being sued, rather than the Government. I'm still optimistic. The idea that the world can now forego fossil fuels, while maintaining living standards, is magical thinking of the first order.

IF AMEC pay the $9m, AND IF DCCAE issue the permit, then I sincerely hope it will see a lot higher than just 2p. As those should see the major hurdles overcome to get on and actually drill the goddamn appraisal well.

Will it still be okay to heat the new houses with peat fires?

I'm inclined to think its a buy. There was a sell at 21.6. Hard to imagine MMs paying more to buy such a huge chunk. And a 1 mil sell would surely trigger a further steep drop in the sp. on the other hand it didn't move it up either. Bizarre, i've got no idea what's going on. There are some occasional big trades though.

If they were really all sells I'd expect the sp to be down to around 10p by nw, on past form. What price did you pay, furey, if you don't mind my asking?

I don't really get why APEC would have gone to all the bother if they are not going to follow through now. But on the other hand, Aim O&G is almost always about bitter disappointment.

If there was 'unexplained higher knowledge' PVR should be tanking, with GS leading the charge for the door. But PVR isn't tanking, and the volume doesn't indicate big holders departing, so I don't believe there is higher knowledge. Still don't know how this will pan out though, so it's pretty high risk, which explains people bailing.

Well, you could be right Mamms. But surely the real question is, if/when the permit issues, will the site survey go ahead?

Brid's claim that it will cost Ireland €250,000 looks on the light side compared to the £1trillion cost being bandied about to make the UK carbon neutral. And that is regarded as an underestimate.

The hard reality is that India, China and Africa are going to continue increasing the amount of CO2 they put into the atmosphere. And by amounts that dwarf the reductions that could be made even if the UK and Eire did go carbon neutral. Which by the way has outsourced energy intensve industry to far less clean and efficient energy using countries.

So the real question is, what are we going to do to mitigate it? And would that be cheaper than trying to phase out fossil fuels very quickly, rather than gradually. CO2 is not itself a very potent greenhouse gas, or intrinsically bad. It's good for plants. The thinking is, it will increase the amount if water vapour in the atmosphere, which is a far more potent greenhouse gas, and in combination they coukd trigger runaway warming. Water vapour is not increasing as much as the climate models predict though. But if it does, it is actually quite simple and cheap to seed the atmosphere to prompt rain, getting the water vapour down. See Chpt 5 Superfreakonomics, 2009. I don't understand why politicians keep accepting ruinous policies. Except that they are thick.

What? Brid estimates it would cost Eire €250,000 to stop fossil fuel exploration? So that would include the costs of comensating all the O&G comanies, as well as covering the higher cost of importing energy and generating green energy? She makes Diane Abbot look like a maths genius.

What is Waha's average buy price? And I couldn't read the article, but is this just referring to the company's Moroccan assets? But for both Morocco and Egypt this seems like a strange time to want to sell. I know its been a ballsaching wait, but one more year should see us in a better position.

According to the DCCAE website, submissions can be made on the application submitted by Exola up to 13 June. Such a submission would have to either identify a failure to comply with EU directives, or identify a possible harm that DCCAE had not considered. As they seem to have taken a belt and braces approach to the permitting process this time round, I am hopeful that there won't be any such submissions. Therefore, by Friday morning, APEC will know whether the path is clear, or whether there are any more spanners in the works. Not that I am suggesting that An Taisce are tools. Anyway, even if APEC stump up on Friday, we may not find out until next Monday. Gripping stuff.

It is bizarre isn't it, PVR recovering while LOGP continue to slide.

I don't think anyone thinks they are anovas. With around 60m shares, the volume just hasn't been there.