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Recovery seems to be premature :( as WTN did not do well tonight on TSE (all coal stocks hit hard later in session). I guess CBM will remain in the doldrums for now...

WTN/FDG looking good so far on TSE.

An interesting read http://www.investegate.co.uk/invarticle.aspx?id=30752 The CLN meeting on July 14th may be a key date in recovery of this sp - but as PokerBrat has stated we are very vulnerable to the whims of the Canadian market especially how it effects WTN. Panic selling yesterday in Canada based on a small reduction in thermal coal on-the-spot prices & yet WTN only sell coking coal and are on a very lucrative fixed annual contract. I still expect this will come good this year but then I may be insane. Lol.

Oh I forgot - Sassy just re-read my message on chartism and u will see it was tongue in cheek. I think Ruthykins gave a good answer & hope u learn from it.

WTN closed at equivalent of £3.94 with a late surge. If CBM was again at around 60% of NAV then it would be 240p. Many coal companies took a 10-15% hit today.

Sp now at 55% of notional asset value - it usually trades close to 60% of NAV (much lower than usual for what was/is regarded as an investment company). WTN sp starting to recover on TSX. (meant "as WTN sp dropped rapidly" in previous post)

It looked like sheer panic on the TSX today as WTN sp rapidly soon after opening. I think it opened around $9 and even dropped to below $7 at one stage. Latest is $7.75 which is about £3.83. Why? There is some news about a drop in European thermal coal prices and a legal case in Georgia, USA to do with CO2 emissions from proposed new coal-fired power plants - but no adverse news on coking coal (metallurgical coal) as far as I am aware. Even with current WTN sp on TSX the CBM NAV is £4. We have now watched CBM drop from £3.40 to £2.20 but fundamentals remain good!

I guess it works similar to a cash dividend except they pass shares on to your stockbroker and you then find you have twice as many XTR shares as you have CBM. Apparently XTR expecting some good news on Friday so maybe worth more than 4.5p.

2 Xtract Energy shares for 1 CBM is around 4.5p for each share.

Real time CBM sp is now 250. Not sure why there was a drop perhaps market initially unsure what to make of news re. Xtract Energy. CBM had stated earlier in the year of its plans with Xtract Energy and it is positive news as they are continuing to carry out their strategy so that they are no longer perceived as just an investment company (which should make the large discount of sp relative to NAV something of the past).

Apparently CBM is just about to form a double bottom (sounds unhealthy to me but supposedly it is good news for us).

Cannacord recommendation was equivocal as they changed WTN to 'speculative buy' but increased target from $10.5 to $12.25 i.e. WTN sp of around £6.12 Hedging their bets I guess.

Lol! Nice point though re. WTN profits cf. CBM market cap. You should also consider that CLN is improving performance towards 2.8m tonnes. If it gets similar contracts to WTN (although you need to take into account it produces less metallurgical coal) then it could be making £200m profits let alone considering value of WTN shares, 50% of EBG, 100% of AGD, NEMI and other income.

The director sell was announced on Friday and this was after most of the drop. They did sell at the peak of the sp and not sure how much to read into this when WTN's prospects are so good - maybe they were moving to a bigger house or buying a yacht! A small dip whilst there is no news of takeover or profits coming through could have been expected but it seems that there was a widespread dip across coal companies perhaps relating to general market downturn. However, fundamentals remain good and it could be argued (as Loaksay implies) that there is no substantial reason for this dip.

WTN/CBM should be very good long term buys - just wish I could have anticipated this dip! If you look at June 16th WTN was 407 (currently 447) and CBM was 240 (currently 250). The shares shot up with the CBM re-affirmation of the value of its shares and WTN's post of the 2008-2009 contracts with the huge profits to come and that there were a number of companies interested in puchasing all/part of WTN. Since then we have dipped almost to the value of June 16th with no significant negative news as far as I am aware.

WTN news was of contracts from >$300/t to $250/t (most of its production is the more expensive hard coking coal). This years production is 3.7 million tons and will increase to 5m tons next year. Looking aat last years results they needed to sell at $120/t to have broken even. Therefore, this year could see profits of $160 x 3.7m = around $600m or £300m. Spot coal prices are already reaching $400/t so next year could see profits well in excess of $1 billion or £500m.

Equity value of CBM is 433p despite recent drop in WTN sp. Therefore, current sp is only 57% of this figure. There was some very heavy buying by a number of hedge funds around the 320-330 mark. It would be helpful to calm the market if WTN would provide some figures on their likely profits over the next year.

I wish I had gone on holiday with my profits! Busy day job so have had little time to post but not much to add from what has been said recently. Initially there were some treeshakes and a temporary dip of 10% might have expected looking at the historical chart of CBM this year. However, I wasn't expecting what has happened to occur and had topped up heavily in CBM & CLN (around the 310 & 90 mark). Fundamentals remain good and no obvious reason for such a drop apart from general market changes as far as I am aware. I am holding on with sweaty palms for mid-July when I am expecting another surge. I will top up if I can free up some more funds. WTN seems very volatile on TSX & I am not sure why they are so worried as it should be raking in profit.

One observation is that in all these treeshakes the buys seem to consistently outnumber the sells for CBM. Sp will climb and should be before mid-July.

WTN closed around 505p tonight (not sure that there was any specific news - maybe just finding it's new level whilst awaiting developments) so might be volatile again tomorrow.