Member Info for Unglove

If you look at what is happening to WTN then you can see how low this could go. WTN has dropped from C$10.8 to just over C$2 and yet we know coal prices are much the same with estimates that coking coal price will remain high for a few years and that WTN could make as much as C$500m in the financial year and with a PE ratio <2. CBM could drop to <80 in the current environment.

I did wonder if sp may drop to below 100 with the current market panic. First bought CBM at 110 some months ago so extraordinary rise and fall with peak at 340. Who knows where is the bottom of this market?

I agree that is part of the problem although the main factor is all the coal stocks have been hit very hard due to concerns about economic slowdown and decreased demand - the US bailout and Chinese economy will be key to what happens. Fortunatlely oil prices have now stabilised as this also had an effect. There are a few other considerations and one is that WTN extraction costs are more than most other coal companies so a lower coal price would have a bigger effect on profits. There are some rumours that a buyout of WTN is nearly complete but is stalling on the current economic situation - and quite rightly as why buy WTN if there is an economic depression and coal prices drop significantly. Fortunately coal prices are still holding.

340 to 140 with little change in coal prices. Shows what the wider market can do.

May see some upward movement on Thursday after FDG announcement of second quarter results (if they are as good as expected).

Looks like someone sold about £500k worth of CBM shares this afternoon so no wonder sp is staying so low.

Wide spread is possibly as MMs have little control of WTN on the LSE as nearly all of the trading is on the TSE using SETS.

WTN will be up about 5% tomorrow. PS should be yyydelilah.

Pokerbrat - I agree market sentiment has moved on and it seems likely that not much will happen in the next few weeks here. Some bullish opinion on ADVFN that news of buyer will surface before the quarterly report of WTN (probably in mid-August). I guess CLN report will be out at a similar time but CLN report will be much less predictable as we know little about their current contract payment for 2008-2009. I am looking at banks too (the banks that claim to have already dealt with their losses). Re. commodities & mining - AQP is a good one to look at re. volatility - good for both longs and shorts.

ADVFN WTN and CBM threads were interesting last night.

ADVFN WTN & CBM threads were interesting last night.

CBM now trading at just under 50% of NAV. Similar situation to when RAB were selling all their holding at around 150p in May although in this case it seem that one of hedgefunds is shorting CBM. With WTN and CLN quarterly results out in next fortnight they will have to wind their short up quickly.

Wider market worries have hit coal sp again - CBM was doing well until DJI took another small nosedive. Need some profit figures or WTN sale to get CBM going again.

Looking a bit more postive today. Apparently CLN takeover formally accepted so CBM now owns CLN and 50% of EBG as well as around 50% of WTN and then there are the other sweeteners including XTR dividend a gold mine (AGD) and part of NEMI. CLN is aiming for nearly 3m tons coal next year and should reach this with CBM finnacial support. Hopefully some news of estimated CLN and WTN profits for 2009 due soon. WTN takeover also remains likely in next few months. CBM has promised to look for maximum shareholder value so in the unlikely event takeover fails then it could pass on most of WTN shares to CBM shareholders (probably worth £3 per CBM share!)

I wish! The wider market ripped coal shares apart these last few weeks and we will have to see how much they will recover.

If I may answer you question: If u buy 500 CLN they will be transferred to 500/3.25 CBM shares on 30th July and CLN will be no more. These 154 CBM shares should be sent to you in first week in August.

WTN closed up at £3.85 and historically over the last couple of months whenever WTN was around this price CBM was around £2.30. Court meeting this morning re. agreement on takeover of CLN so hopefully some news on this later today.

Buys outweigh sells by 2:1 in volume but sp not shifting yet

A rough relationship between CBM and WTN sp over the last month would be CBM = 0.5 WTN + 50

CBM may go up to 220 tomorrow if it is keeping its linkage to WTN (it finished about £3.57 tonight on TSE). Up to 4 news items of note this month for CBM 1. CLN takeover on 14th July 2. CLN report 3. WTN quarterly report 4. possible news of WTN bid. The most crucial will be if there is a successful bid for WTN - there are competing bidders so room for some hope of a successful bid even in this current bear environment.