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Overlooked without a doubt. Wonder what has made someone start buying over the last couple of days. It could be a fund manager who has a small fund where a few purchases make a difference to their performance. Is it the company or a Director buying? Is the final licence clearance imminent? Has someone tipped GFM?
Whatever we could be at 80p next week
With GFM predicting results etc. is tricky. It's only early August but here's my take on where we might be:-
H1 operations continue in H2 without the closure but current commodity prices. Revenue of $52m, net profit of $17.3 eps of 4.9c
H2 same operations as H2 2019 (gold mined back to usual) and lower smelting charges. Revenue of $71m, net profit of $36m eps of 11c.
For me this implies a share price in normal times of 59p to 136p (P/e of 8 to reflect the offshore nature of the company). Higher than this currently due to there being not many games in town to park your money, an expectation of higher commodity prices and Governments to try to build infrastructure projects. Lower than this if you expect the global economy to really struggle and China to become more of a pariah.
I suspect the NAV is, unfortunately, a red herring. It is the amount of moNney spent developing the mine and not a realisable value.
I bought even more shares yesterday. Good money after bad? The 3,846 shares are shown as a sell but it was a buy. Around the same time a trade of 75,000 shares is listed as a sell at a higher price. I’m willing this to be a Director or company purchase.
I'd love to be able to predict why any commodity would move but won't. Industrial production is more important for zinc but most commodity prices are correlated if only marginally. Am I the only person that wants Trump reelected and to build his wall? On a full year's basis the fall in the £ relative to the $ price adds c.£5.5m to GFM's revenue. GFM has claimed that as they are remote COVID has had less of an impact on them than might have been expected.
I'd snap your hand off for 80p at any point in the next year. In a perfect World a zinc price over $2,800, gold and silver prices a bit higher, doubled production from the new mine licence and the shares should be over 400p. Or......zinc and gold prices fall and no new licence and the mine could close meaning the shares are worthless.
Hi Rubey. Welcome to GFM. Officially there doesn't appear to be much Chinese state interference but I suspect there is and the Chairman's statements wouldn't benefit from mentioning it. I don't think we know why there is such a hold up over the additional mining licence. If you're looking for a company that communicates well with it's investors you are in the wrong place unfortunately. I'm thinking that there must have been at least one Director's share purchase in the last 48 hours.
Thank you FOTF - your posts have made me look at Skopolitis's post again. I think that a gold and silver price at current levels would reduce S's calculation of the second half zinc break even price of $1,850 by $130 so a zinc price of $2,000 would mean about 4.5p of earnings on an annual basis. This has massively eased my concerns. Apologies if my plagiarism is offensive.
What if AAL bought the shareholders shares who wanted to sell and kept SM as a separately listed company for those of us that don't? Yes we could be shafted with dilution at AAL's whim but would they risk their credibility?
Hi Skopolitis. Like you I realise that day to day movements in the zinc price are immaterial but long term trends are significant. Despite this I'm curious as to the reason for two consecutive days of big gains - admittedly only back to the price of a month ago. Unfortunately this has been offset by a gold price fall and recent strong gains. Any thoughts??
An astute purchase me thinks. And hopes.