Member Info for UncleBean

Two articles in the Daily Telegraph over the weekend expecting commodity prices to rise and stay high for many years. Might be subscription only reads.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/03/commodities-supercycle-set-make-generation-investors-rich/

It's certainly possible that dividends will start this year although at least $10m will be spent on the new licence areas. Roger said that his "American friends" prefer share buy backs. Wonder what Richard Griffiths prefers?

Can't think of one negative. Cash in the bank, cash rolling in massively. PoZ and PoG at fantastic levels for profitable mining. Processing ramping up this year and next to sweat the paid for assets on a fixed cost business. $bns of metals in the ground and increasing resource. Share buy backs at a very low SP. Likely divis in 2022 will boost the IIs on the share register.
SP should start with 2 in 2021 and 3 in 2022.

I think the trades at 146.5p were buys. I bought 8,46 @ 145p in my wife’s ISA. Total holding nearly 250,000 shares.

wow. c. 10% more on 70% of "our" revenue? I'm not selling for less than 380p.

Griffiths' shareholding has only gone up 375,000. The rest of the change is in financial instruments. Unless my comparison with the last RNS is wrong.

Yep. Glad they believe they have $10m of spare capital. Wonder what it means for the big shareholders as their %ages will increase albeit they will reduce as options are exercised.

Exactly Mattjos. My colleague is a very sophisticated investor. He is very comfortable with GFM making up 30% of his very substantial portfolio.

It seems straightforward. Processing is ready to accept 1.5m tonnes a year. The metal deposits have been surveyed so they know where is best to dig first. A lot of work has been done in anticipation of the new licences so they need to complete this during 2021.

They probably have someone starting work on licence extensions already.

No need to get distracted except for surveying over surrounding areas.

The only risk is the Chinese Government which I think is minimal as the local party owns 11.2% so I would think they will be happy to keep milking that for ever.

My first purchase was on 3rd October 2008 - 25,797 @ 24.03p and have accumulated a lot more since. I have a work colleague who also bought before we met. Our consensus is that after initial proof of delivery a price around 400p would be fair.

I don't expect them before the latter part of April at the earliest. We pretty much know the revenue so 2nd half costs , CAPEX and cash balances will be the interest. I would suspect that the later they are released the more chance of a dividend being declared as there will be more visibility of the ramp up of production and the associated CAPEX requirements. Personally I'm expecting a token 2021 interim payout.

Thanks Skopolitis. My Noddy maths thinks that this halves the cost of production and, therefore doubles the gross margin from Zone II. Calculating DCF on $7bn of metal will be interesting.

I agree that the first production report from Zone II will be necessary to see the actual future revenues.

Does the resource update improve your model's forecasts for 2021 and 2022 Skop?

Thank you Skopolitis. Do you have a gut feeling as to Griffiths' intentions? Or a concert party if that is what it is in effect from your comments?

Thank you Skopolitis. Interesting - especially you say Griffiths and "other" insiders. Is he an insider?

Thank you. Very interesting

I know nothing about Richard Griffiths. Does anybody want to educate me?

Some big trades that could be to do with the granting of options or anything else. A constant stream of buys following. These are the trades:-

15.01.21 11:36:50 112.61 GBX 800,000 900,904.00 Off-Book PRIC LRGS AIMX
15.01.21 11:38:01 112.61 GBX 1,700,000 1,914,421.00 Off-Book PRIC AIMX
15.01.21 11:32:38 112.61 GBX 2,000,000 2,252,260.00 Off-Book - AIMX
15.01.21 11:26:14 112.50 GBX 4,846,263 5,452,045.88 Off-Book - AIMX

Hi Skop. No idea. Can only speculate. Often, I believe, such sales are often related to divorce but can be house purchase for themselves or children or anything else really. I suspect you know more than me really.

Thank you ashikshetty. That implies p/es of 6.5x for 2021 and 4.9x for 2022. This ignores the cash on hand which (or debt) I use to adjust the p/e which will be impacted by the capital spend which is a positive.

Not forgetting the substantial options that can be exercised upon the granting of the licences.