Member Info for UncleBean

Good morning JustOne. I don't think I'm seeing the same in the RNS. There is no mention that Zone II final approval has been given. It's a relief that the shutdown will be the minimum 6 weeks. I'd have preferred some more meat to the RNS. Eg. "We will be able to get all necessary supplies to last until 14th March. We have a plan of works for the 6 week shutdown that will enable xxxxxx."

What is there in the RNS that thinks this will change the dividend policy and share price? I see nothing to that effect.

Any specific reason for the rapid rise in the zinc price?

Very acceptable production. Gross zinc price was below $3,000 for most of Q3 and above $3,200 today. Fingers crossed that there is no production disruption and zinc goes even higher from here. Q1 2022 looks like a write off for production but as it's been so well flagged mine improvements will be actioned. Presuming Zone II final sign off is received Q3 2022 looks like being over 400,000 in production with even higher prices.

Q3 production should be released next week. On the last broadcast Roger said they couldn't get hold of any shares as there aren't any sellers. Surely in the 2 months since then they could have found the odd '000 shares to buy.
I find it very interesting that none of the options have been exercised since January which gives me great comfort that there are no problems on site.

We must be throwing cash off with zinc at this price. Maybe the Board are holding onto the cash to pay a dividend. I wonder why Roger said they couldn't get hold of any shares. 10,000 were bought this afternoon so could be by the Board?

Poppyc%ck. will the price falling there are shares being sold that could be bought.

I’m expecting there to have been buy backs today. From the Chairman’s comments on the teleconference I would expect they’ll be buying as many as they can within their rules. I personally would like 5m shares bought before divis start triggering the exercising and sale of many of the 20m options.

Reads well? I found them to be horrible with the exception of cash on the Balance Sheet. A huge increase in unit costs is not what we wanted. 2022 earnings forecasts are almost unchanged but 2021 FY forecast is down 42%. Some of the downside is due to depreciation reflecting the huge investment in the past.
In all honesty I was only really looking for the 30th June cash balance and I am very pleasantly surprised. PRC fees haven’t been paid and don’t look like they will be anytime soon.

With the pRice of zinc sticking around $3,000 cash generation will be even stronger in H2 so let’s hope it is conserved or used wisely.

Is it just me who looks for a RNS half year report daily at 7:05? Anyone know when the results will be published?

Hi volcano. The shares held in Treasury before the buy back programme started was already 540,000. 399,799 shares have been bought this year so far. I don't think $1m in purchases has been completed so we are less than 10% through.

Brilliant. Everything on track. 1.2m throughput even without Zone II. Good prices. Results will be wonderful.

Funded my SIPP and bought another 8,018 @ 108.5p

Either something's desperately wrong on site or this is a very cheap bargain price.

I can get a quote for 700 @ 117.9p (all the funds in my SIPP).

As Skopolitis said GFM is minting it - even at lower metal prices. I think the market will be surprised how much has been earned in Q2.

Sorry to be a bore but I've been disproportionately thinking about the options. The 2020 EPS calculation uses 9,861,227 options for 2020 but 15,107,500 for 2019 which led me to hope that 5m options had lapsed as the number of shares in issue only went up by the 40,000 issued to Mark Hine.
This doesn't equate with the total options shown later as 22,167,499. Of these Roger Goodwin has 2m, Val Brynelsden 900k, Rupert Crowe's estate 900k and Mark Hine 250,000. That leaves 18.1m in management, staff and ex-staff's hands. Are these insiders? In China probably yes even if they've left the company.

I hope you are correct as I'm 55 in March 2023 and would love to have the shares to be 390p (total value of £1m). Why wait, though, if you are Richard Griffiths for the market to value the business when running at 1.5 tonnes + instead of today's undervalued level?

Morning Skopolitis. Have you factored the 22m options into your calcs?

For some reason I think the p/e should be 8.4 x 2022 earnings but once dividends are at 30-40% of net earnings the yield will be equally important to some investors. I think the company will get incrementally more efficient gradually increasing the throughput and seeking out the highest grades available.
On 35 to 40 (p?) (I have just under 34p for 2022) that suggests my target as 294p to 336p in April 2023.
Don't believe a dividend will be declared with the interims as the licence fees needed to be paid - over $18m - which I believe (hope) partially explains the low level of share buy backs.

Just a heads up as I can't see the results RNS here

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GFM/2020-results/14974827

I am looking forward to the outlook as part of the report. Also cash generation.

I was considering quarterly production. 200k of 2021's 1.1m in Q1. 300k average for Q2-4 so maybe 260k, 300k, 340k which would be a good place to meet the 375k average on 1.5m.

Yes. I was very pleased to see that this morning. Although it's now 2.5p actual quotes are 146.05p to see and only 146.2p to buy.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/02/spending-spree-boost-commodity-prices/