Member Info for UncleBean

I'd love to be able to predict why any commodity would move but won't. Industrial production is more important for zinc but most commodity prices are correlated if only marginally. Am I the only person that wants Trump reelected and to build his wall? On a full year's basis the fall in the £ relative to the $ price adds c.£5.5m to GFM's revenue. GFM has claimed that as they are remote COVID has had less of an impact on them than might have been expected.

I'd snap your hand off for 80p at any point in the next year. In a perfect World a zinc price over $2,800, gold and silver prices a bit higher, doubled production from the new mine licence and the shares should be over 400p. Or......zinc and gold prices fall and no new licence and the mine could close meaning the shares are worthless.

Hi Rubey. Welcome to GFM. Officially there doesn't appear to be much Chinese state interference but I suspect there is and the Chairman's statements wouldn't benefit from mentioning it. I don't think we know why there is such a hold up over the additional mining licence. If you're looking for a company that communicates well with it's investors you are in the wrong place unfortunately. I'm thinking that there must have been at least one Director's share purchase in the last 48 hours.

I know message boards often comment on buys and sells being recorded wrongly. I've just bought another 11,000 @ 44.9p (14:32:23) which has been flagged as a sell.

A nice rise in the share price mid week and a very nice rise in the zinc price yesterday. A very long way to go but encouraging.

Thank you FOTF - your posts have made me look at Skopolitis's post again. I think that a gold and silver price at current levels would reduce S's calculation of the second half zinc break even price of $1,850 by $130 so a zinc price of $2,000 would mean about 4.5p of earnings on an annual basis. This has massively eased my concerns. Apologies if my plagiarism is offensive.

What if AAL bought the shareholders shares who wanted to sell and kept SM as a separately listed company for those of us that don't? Yes we could be shafted with dilution at AAL's whim but would they risk their credibility?

I dreaded looking this morning but amazed to see a rise. You'd think something is going on but no zinc price rise, small Directors' purchases and no good news from China.

Have you had a chance to review the interims?

Hi Skopolitis. Like you I realise that day to day movements in the zinc price are immaterial but long term trends are significant. Despite this I'm curious as to the reason for two consecutive days of big gains - admittedly only back to the price of a month ago. Unfortunately this has been offset by a gold price fall and recent strong gains. Any thoughts??

An astute purchase me thinks. And hopes.

Could be in a sweet spot to reopen the bond sales. Trump posting positively about China trade talks. Central banks likely to provide fiscal stimulus . China likely to divert attention from Hong Kong with economic stimulus.

If we get back to risk on on the yield curve some way from being inverted we might get the bonds away.

Here’s hoping.

What was yesterday’s news?

Thank you Skopolitis. I appreciate all your points. My concern is that the zinc price has tootled along in a range and suddenly fallen from $2,550 - $2,700 to $2,350 - $2,400 with no change on the known reasons.

Any ideas why the zinc price is falling sharply?

I look forward with great interest to your projected numbers. My first thought on your post was how low would the zinc price be with Chinese smelters at full capacity? My second thought is has this meant that less zinc has been sent to the smelters by Griffin. My third thought is that we have so much hope on the new mine area. Is this less of a potential boon if there is no spare smelter capacity. GFM might be a well run company - I doubt that it really is - but..... Instead of scouring the globe for acquisitions how about building an on site eco friendlier smelter???? We have the reserves to get a payback for decades.

Maybe 13p is the bottom. Maybe just the beginning of the fall. Maybe.

I agree with that but GFM had zero debt last week. SP was 82 2 weeks ago. zinc price is on a sharp trend downwards. Either better efficiency is implied in recent internal financials or the extension announcement is close. I agree that the SP is too cheap but see no reason why the SP has moved.

Still confusing. Zinc price continually dropping, no volume. Why is the price going up?

yes. Very interesting movement this week. Nothing to report on the zinc price. Gold price is good. Low volumes. Very interesting.