Member Info for UncleBean

just checking ashik - the 25 and 30 forecasts are cent's not pence's.

Very hard to give advice without knowing specifics and personal circumstances. Whilst Skop will have better analysis I'm forecasting PBT of c. $49m in the first year of 1.5m tonnes production at current prices. This could be much higher as I've factored in a lot of costs associated with new licences and areas of operation. This would give a p/e of 3.0x

It's not hard to see a SP above 200p in 2021 and 350p in 2022. FWIW I have a very disproportiate amount invested in GFM and will be buying more.

DYOR.

I agree. I would love to hear Skop's views. 1.5m tonnes in 2022.

No it isn’t but it implies that the reason for the delay isn’t due to something GFM has or hasn’t done and the Chinese authorities aren’t looking negatively at GFM. I’m looking forward to updating my 2021 forecast and reading Skop’s take on the RNS.

Thought we might get an update today as the AGM is currently taking place.

A fair and reasonable comment. Although without the back up rationale it is worthless? Do they base their comment on profits? Cash generation? Zinc / gold price upside?

Take their price target with a pinch of salt? Not that I don't think over 100p would be unreasonable.

Are they the house broker?

Although zinc production is lower gold is massively up. As much revenue in Q3 as in all of H1. Very much welcome the trading statement and comments.

Someone bought 10,000 at 70p an hour ago?

As always making predictions is a fool's game so call me a fool here's my guess.
If production (with fingers crossed gold has been mined at previous quantities) has been the same as H2 2019 in Q3 then Q3 will have been:-
Revenue $26.1m
Gross Profit $14.7m
Net Profit $9.5m
EPS 3.4c
p/e 6.7x

A lot of ifs and guesses.

Unlikely. Could have sold this morning for c. 60p and this evening for c. 69p! Not the best timed comment.

Why do you think GFM is overvalued? To my thinking this is massively undervalued unless you believe that zinc and gold prices are going to collapse or the company will never repatriate it's profits.

Overlooked without a doubt. Wonder what has made someone start buying over the last couple of days. It could be a fund manager who has a small fund where a few purchases make a difference to their performance. Is it the company or a Director buying? Is the final licence clearance imminent? Has someone tipped GFM?

Whatever we could be at 80p next week

Good morning L2. No RNS this morning. Gold below $2,000 and zinc off it's recent high. Still potentially massively undervalued.

With GFM predicting results etc. is tricky. It's only early August but here's my take on where we might be:-

H1 operations continue in H2 without the closure but current commodity prices. Revenue of $52m, net profit of $17.3 eps of 4.9c

H2 same operations as H2 2019 (gold mined back to usual) and lower smelting charges. Revenue of $71m, net profit of $36m eps of 11c.

For me this implies a share price in normal times of 59p to 136p (P/e of 8 to reflect the offshore nature of the company). Higher than this currently due to there being not many games in town to park your money, an expectation of higher commodity prices and Governments to try to build infrastructure projects. Lower than this if you expect the global economy to really struggle and China to become more of a pariah.

The 3 x 1m share trades were all listed as sells. Anybody care to try to explain why that would make the share price rise?

I suspect the NAV is, unfortunately, a red herring. It is the amount of moNney spent developing the mine and not a realisable value.

I bought even more shares yesterday. Good money after bad? The 3,846 shares are shown as a sell but it was a buy. Around the same time a trade of 75,000 shares is listed as a sell at a higher price. I’m willing this to be a Director or company purchase.

I’ve been a holder for longer than that.

I really don't understand who is deciding to sell now. I estimate that current metal prices would be £8.8m higher over a full year than the prices of a month ago.