Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Sorry to be a bore but I've been disproportionately thinking about the options. The 2020 EPS calculation uses 9,861,227 options for 2020 but 15,107,500 for 2019 which led me to hope that 5m options had lapsed as the number of shares in issue only went up by the 40,000 issued to Mark Hine.
This doesn't equate with the total options shown later as 22,167,499. Of these Roger Goodwin has 2m, Val Brynelsden 900k, Rupert Crowe's estate 900k and Mark Hine 250,000. That leaves 18.1m in management, staff and ex-staff's hands. Are these insiders? In China probably yes even if they've left the company.
I hope you are correct as I'm 55 in March 2023 and would love to have the shares to be 390p (total value of £1m). Why wait, though, if you are Richard Griffiths for the market to value the business when running at 1.5 tonnes + instead of today's undervalued level?
For some reason I think the p/e should be 8.4 x 2022 earnings but once dividends are at 30-40% of net earnings the yield will be equally important to some investors. I think the company will get incrementally more efficient gradually increasing the throughput and seeking out the highest grades available.
On 35 to 40 (p?) (I have just under 34p for 2022) that suggests my target as 294p to 336p in April 2023.
Don't believe a dividend will be declared with the interims as the licence fees needed to be paid - over $18m - which I believe (hope) partially explains the low level of share buy backs.
Just a heads up as I can't see the results RNS here
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GFM/2020-results/14974827
I am looking forward to the outlook as part of the report. Also cash generation.
I was considering quarterly production. 200k of 2021's 1.1m in Q1. 300k average for Q2-4 so maybe 260k, 300k, 340k which would be a good place to meet the 375k average on 1.5m.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/02/spending-spree-boost-commodity-prices/
Two articles in the Daily Telegraph over the weekend expecting commodity prices to rise and stay high for many years. Might be subscription only reads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/03/commodities-supercycle-set-make-generation-investors-rich/
It's certainly possible that dividends will start this year although at least $10m will be spent on the new licence areas. Roger said that his "American friends" prefer share buy backs. Wonder what Richard Griffiths prefers?
Can't think of one negative. Cash in the bank, cash rolling in massively. PoZ and PoG at fantastic levels for profitable mining. Processing ramping up this year and next to sweat the paid for assets on a fixed cost business. $bns of metals in the ground and increasing resource. Share buy backs at a very low SP. Likely divis in 2022 will boost the IIs on the share register.
SP should start with 2 in 2021 and 3 in 2022.
Exactly Mattjos. My colleague is a very sophisticated investor. He is very comfortable with GFM making up 30% of his very substantial portfolio.
It seems straightforward. Processing is ready to accept 1.5m tonnes a year. The metal deposits have been surveyed so they know where is best to dig first. A lot of work has been done in anticipation of the new licences so they need to complete this during 2021.
They probably have someone starting work on licence extensions already.
No need to get distracted except for surveying over surrounding areas.
The only risk is the Chinese Government which I think is minimal as the local party owns 11.2% so I would think they will be happy to keep milking that for ever.
My first purchase was on 3rd October 2008 - 25,797 @ 24.03p and have accumulated a lot more since. I have a work colleague who also bought before we met. Our consensus is that after initial proof of delivery a price around 400p would be fair.
I don't expect them before the latter part of April at the earliest. We pretty much know the revenue so 2nd half costs , CAPEX and cash balances will be the interest. I would suspect that the later they are released the more chance of a dividend being declared as there will be more visibility of the ramp up of production and the associated CAPEX requirements. Personally I'm expecting a token 2021 interim payout.
Thanks Skopolitis. My Noddy maths thinks that this halves the cost of production and, therefore doubles the gross margin from Zone II. Calculating DCF on $7bn of metal will be interesting.
I agree that the first production report from Zone II will be necessary to see the actual future revenues.