Member Info for UncleBean

Interim results were out on 12th September last year. Don't believe this should have any impact of share buy backs as it's supposed to be a process independent of GFM.

35 minutes to go and we've breached 160p. And on a day when zinc is down over 2%.

Chris

Just for info (ifs and ands and all that):-

IF the average zinc price received in 2023 had matched 2022, GFM would have received $65.2m additional revenue with little increase in costs. The comparison was $1,931 v $2,513. With the reduction in smelting charges this equates to a current spot price of c. $3,090 giving GFM c. $2,300. That's c.$360,000 additional cash and profit each and every week zinc is at this price v 2023. That is a serious amount of cash.

PS. I'm still furious no dividend was declared.

Yep. The price of zinc and gold will mean increased profits just by standing still.

I did used to know but have completely forgotten. Is zone II more concentrated in metals? This is important as the processing facility is the constriction. If 1,500,000 being processed is the limit then revenue can only be increased by greater concentrations. Costs will be reduced for the first several years minings from zone II. I can see a second processing facility being constructed. That would be transformational.

The Zinc price will hold the share price up by no dividends means a drift I think. Deduct cash and GFM is trading on a p/e of 21.5x. Based on the political risks I've always thought 8.5x to be appropriate. A 10c dividend would IMO have pushed the price to 200p+.

I'm a seller. Yesterday I would have been a buyer if I wasn't massively overweight already.

I'm fuming. Totally fuming. No reason given.

The 2023 Annual Accounts should be published imminently. I'm sure Zone II will be addressed in that.

As I reckon GFM currently has more than $63m in cash on deposit I’m thinking 160p will be passed for good when they say how 70% of that will be distributed. Yes, the zinc price has traded 40% higher than now but it is at a level that throws off cash for fun.

IMO opinion you have as much chance of buying for 5p as 70p in the next 2 months. On the one hand PXC seems to be a slam dunk brilliant opportunity for a multi, multi bagger. BUT if that's the case why is funding taking soooooooo long? You'll go mad trying to time your entry. You either gamble now or pay a much higher price later if funding is non dilutative.

IMO do your research. If you choose to invest do so sooner rather than later.

Who cares but that is the most likely explanation. I was tempted to take some profit but resisted. I expect results and a dividend announcement in the next fortnight. Chances are the price will be 170p+ before 31st July IMO.

Yes. The Board have regularly referenced the ability to get funds out of China. There was a RNS on 29th November 2023:-

Griffin Mining Ltd ("the "Company" with its subsidiaries "the Group") is pleased to announce that on 24th November 2023, it received into the Group's bank accounts outside of China, a further dividend from its operating Chinese subsidiary, Hebei Hua Ao Mining Industry Company Limited, in the amount of Renminbi75 million (US$10.5 million) less PRC withholding tax of 5%. The net funds were received in the normal course of business and in normal electronic wire transfer times.

Have you got a lot of shares or bought at the very top 3 years ago? Otherwise why is it difficult getting your money back?

I agree that the share buyback is encouraging. For me this is because it must mean that plenty of cash is outside of China, there is no bad news on the horizon and the huge cash accumulation is continuing. Is that your reasoning too?

I'm thinking that a 3p - 5p dividend will be declared in the results in a week or two.

You wait. 2023 results could be out in the next 2 weeks. No unexpected costs. No bonuses. No options granted. Zone II even better than expected. Exploration area extension granted. Chairman says "We have too much cash so going to distribute 15p in dividends." Share price will be well over 160p.

OK. That's my very poor attempt at having a laugh.

Hi Kaypea. I understand your thinking but I think you missed this RNS on 5th January:-

Today, Griffin announces that it has entered into trades committing to purchase, through its joint broker Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, 8,886,128 of the Company's own ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares"), representing 4.6% of the Company's issued share capital (excluding shares already held in treasury), at a price of 88 pence per Ordinary Share, for a total consideration of £7,819,792, excluding brokers fees, (the "Transaction"). On settlement of these trades the Ordinary Shares purchased will be held in treasury for the time being.

These transactions seem to have transformed the investment outlook for institutional investors who now seem to be gradually coming on board. Buying these shares now would cost almost £7m more than it did then.

History would suggest that's a good idea. Especially with zinc and gold tanking today. I'm gambling that a dividend will be declared (history suggests no dividends declared) with the results in 2 weeks time.

I feel strange celebrating 16.5p/17p.

I can see many more reasons to buy than sell. Hence I'll hold. Unless the price of zinc tanks I'm hoping not to sell before 240p.

At 30th June 2023 GFM had almost $47m in cash. Admittedly net current assets was just under $21m. After nearly 10 months of trading and buying 9m shares at 88p (!) the numbers are probably c.$63m and $37m. Cash is a very significant proportion of the c.£260m market cap. What would the declaration of a 10c dividend do to the share price???

Wealth warning. Whenever I speculate on a dividend boosting the share price it is ruled out and the price falls.

Unless the buys or sells have inside information I would still consider the technicals to be irrelevant.