Financing1 May 2019 07:45
Obviously not happy one bit with dilution, but looking at the terms again as long as VALs compounds meet their targets then l can live with it if you believe in the science and that they are commercial.
The 213mn subscription shares is a given, its done and we have faced that dilution already which IMHO is now priced at 0.4 or 20% drop on Friday. They had no choice.
The warrants and CLN’s are an OPTION and this is how l read it.
The warrant exercise is over a 5 year period on total commitments and CLN’s can only be exercised after 12 months of each tranche issuance again over 5 years
There wii be a minimum of 8 tranches so VAL receive a further £1.75mn cash on drawdown (they can freeze auto drawdown), BEFORE any exercise can occur after June, so no further dilution until l’d say after July 2020 or thereafter depending on when the first CLN tranche is issued.
Also there is no interest payable, so funding cost for VAL.
Lets assume VAL don’t need any more money then after the 8 tranches and warrant exercise they will have received circa £3.5mn in monies or 2 to 3 years of funding.
The conversion has to be at 20% premium to the lowest bid.
Will the facility go through and so not trigger a break fee - yes l believe because EHGO just have 213mn new shares and without the funding VAL can’t really continue unless they have alternative financing or a plan B. It has too.
Discount the 213mn shares and ask yourself what value enhancing news are we going to get in the next minimum 13 months before any further dilution? Where could the price be and what milestones would we have achieved, what deals tied up and for how much?
EHGO are an investor - they will make much more money from the success if VAL through a shareholding. Yes they make on break fees etc, but if anyone has bought a house upfront fees, penalties are very normal.
VAL have just bought themselves time and upon successful deals with 401 and potentially 201 early, any future dilution could be swallowed up by our higher market cap which should be be for a CTII company IMHO be north of £25mn.
All IMHO and DYOR
My perspective.