RE: How good the today's RNS was.....13 Feb 2025 08:37
This deal has elements of both potential upside and significant risk, making it a controversial financing method. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors:
Potential Benefits for ImmuPharma:
Immediate Funding: The company secures £2.91m, with £1.875m coming from Lanstead.
Potential Upside: If ImmuPharma’s share price exceeds the benchmark price (5p) over the 7-month period, the company could receive more than the pledged amount.
Fixed Share Dilution: Unlike convertible loan notes, the number of issued shares is fixed upfront.
Extended Cash Runway: The company suggests it will be funded until at least the end of 2026, assuming share price performance aligns with expectations.
Potential Risks (Possible "Death Spiral" Scenario):
Downside Exposure: If the share price drops below the 5p benchmark price, the company receives less than the pledged £1.875m, potentially creating a cash shortfall.
Dilution: Lanstead will own around 10.7% of the company, and the new shares increase the total share count significantly.
Market Impact: Lanstead’s model involves selling shares into the market over time to realise returns, which could depress the share price, leading to a self-fulfilling decline.
Past Performance: Previous Lanstead deals in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 resulted in losses of £0.9m to £1.7m for ImmuPharma, suggesting this structure has historically not favoured the company.
If ImmuPharma delivers strong news flow and its share price rises above 5p, this could be a reasonable funding method. However, if the share price stagnates or declines, the company will receive less funding than expected, potentially requiring further capital raises, exacerbating dilution and investor confidence issues.