The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I don’t think Duferco have even got going yet. We will have an idea at a future date as they are quite close to the 5% threshold which is reportable. Everybody has known about this for a long time so there should be no shocks here, part of the problem was the sheer number of shares Duferco received late last year due to the low sp. With a complete lack of any news sentiment has been eroded and buying is practically non-existant.
We are not going to get director buys, I’m rather fearful we could get sells next month as tax bills are due to be settled as was the case last year. That series of sells last year had a bad effect on the sp.
This article is almost 6 months old, it quotes the share price is being 13.21. It seems heavily reliant on charting using historical data, and made predictions about where the share price could be (20p) by November. I would disregard this for several reasons, aside from being out of date and already proven to be inaccurate, the methodology used is questionable ( probably why it didn’t work ).
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I would expect a RNS on Tuesday updating what is going on with this. Clearly the transaction will not conclude today , the deadline day, and MUST will not be readmitted though this has been apparent for quite sometime. I did read a High Court hearing is set for the New Year but no other details. It has crossed my mind if this is connected to the Peel Hunt announcement yesterday. We need to clarify what is going on here, are we issuing shares as part of the deal that was not concluded or has the litigation affected this?
https://www.investegate.co.uk/primorus-investments--prim-/rns/update-on-mustang-energy-investment/202112210700042721W/
Bushfield should also be updating
I’m surprised you’re not aware of it. There is a later RNS outlining litigation.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BMN/update-on-enerox-gmbh-investment-nb5vdl7vyjnmf38.html
They said it was still expected in Q4. Not definite and could have changed, still a few days to go. We are though due an update by the 31st December on the state of the Mustang deal as thats when it was due to complete. Very unclear what is happening following the litigation announcement and nothing since.
That figure and its projection seem rather low. The current lithium battery market is just over 40 billion with an expected growth over the next few years of 12% to 15%.That would bring it to over 100 billion by the end of the 2020s. I realise the application of lithium batteries is far more wider, and the uptake in electric vehicles is expected to increase over the next few years, but a figure of less than 0.5% of the overall market for vfrb seems disproportionate.
So that means we are due 2 RNS ‘s, one foe the holding notification threshold (Duferco) after which the company need to issue one for Total Voting Rights as the percentages will have changed. That will formally announce to the market the revised share total of 1.26b.
I stated yesterday that the company have still to issue a RNS covering the additional 67 million shares bringing the total to 1.126b. This was supposed to be happening last Friday. So until formal notification is made to the market, Duferco have not got these shares yet. This could be an admin lag, and the onus is on the company to update it. When this arrives it will confirm how much Duferco did offload from the initial tranche. Thats my understanding of the current situation.
I was expecting a RNS covering the admission of the additional 67 million shares giving the overall total of 1.260b shares as outlined in the RNS dated 8th November.. This admission was suppose to happen Friday morning (12th) but as yet the share total remains as it was.
I don’t think we could have given them the cash so the arrangement is the best deal we could get under the circumstances. It’s the best arrangement for both parties but certainly Duferco will do very well out of it. I expect them to start selling at a certain point , we should get an indication of this via the shareholder register and also a RNS when the relevant threshold is breached. How long this will last is anybody’s guess, but it may take a while to offload.
Spa broker note in full (issued 6/10)
https://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Bushveld_Vanchem-kiln-3-to-lead-expansion-of-vanadium_October_2021.pdf
The ‘short attack’ in terms of declared shorts is negligible at 0.6%. Yes there may be more than that below 0.5% but there are dozens of ftse companies being shorted at far higher rates and it is not always having the severe impact it has here. My guess is that GSA took the short out based on the rising operational costs and not on the falling V price. In the last six weeks the v price has been collapsing which has been a bonus to them as it will be also eating into our bottom line. They did increase the short less than 4 weeks ago. They will be out ( at a good profit) when there is a reversal in the v price and/ or the company can declare that the operational costs have reduced to levels of late last year.