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As I posted the other day, we will know soon enough if Duferco have started selling. They have to report when they dip below 5% threshold of the overall share total which is around 63 million. They need to sell just over 3,000,000 to get to this milestone.
No fixed duration, could be several weeks to several months. Some judgements coming through now were heard in September. Iām not sure if the company get advance notice of when the judgement is likely to come, it is posted on the court website when itās issued.
We will get an early indication of any Duferco selling when they breach the 5% holding step. This has to be reported to the market. They need to sell 3 to 4 million of the 66 million in order to hit this.
Ben, you have omitted the additional admin and sundries costs which need to go on. This is usually revealed in the end of year financials, it depends exactly what has occurred during the year but a figure of around $5 kg has been previously used. See various recent FY reports.
The reason the sp rose sharply in 2018 was down to sustained buying pressure driven by Golden Summit in very large quantities , (was it around 80 million they eventually bought?) and to a lesser extent the precious metals fund Van something, who I vaguely recall bought tens of millions. The reasons Golden Summit bought in vast numbers is unclear, but they then sold out around 18 months later at a loss and seemingly falling out with certain bod members. How many piās bought on the back of this is unclear but it was a lot and created tremendous interest in 2018/19. When such huge numbers of shares are bought it will always create a massive increase in sp, the opposite obviously applies when selling occurs as it did when GS and the metals fund started offloading.
Gowling acted for both Bushveld and Garnet in this deal and described it as a joint venture. The use of Gowling must have been at Bushvelds insistence due to the fact the company have used them before, so up to a point in time everything seemed ok and everyone was on the same page. Garnet then raised the litigation after the formal market announcement, quite why their grievances did not get raised earlier is a bit of a mystery but clearly its delayed things.
Garnet will have taken the dissolution route themselves rather than it being a forced action, i.e. company being liquidated. They would not be able to do this if they were not solvent. It would seem the dissolution is dependant on what transpires from this court case. This legal action will certainly be costing a lot.
I donāt think Duferco have even got going yet. We will have an idea at a future date as they are quite close to the 5% threshold which is reportable. Everybody has known about this for a long time so there should be no shocks here, part of the problem was the sheer number of shares Duferco received late last year due to the low sp. With a complete lack of any news sentiment has been eroded and buying is practically non-existant.
We are not going to get director buys, Iām rather fearful we could get sells next month as tax bills are due to be settled as was the case last year. That series of sells last year had a bad effect on the sp.
This article is almost 6 months old, it quotes the share price is being 13.21. It seems heavily reliant on charting using historical data, and made predictions about where the share price could be (20p) by November. I would disregard this for several reasons, aside from being out of date and already proven to be inaccurate, the methodology used is questionable ( probably why it didnāt work ).
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