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CTDA is hopefully on the short term horizon, assuming they didn't f*ck up and sent the right data. Others have started to come thru in the last couple of days. That at least gets them selling again in DAM UK. ODX said that DAM are using 200K a month, but we don't know if thats all antigen lfts. But given what we now know about ODX actually production quantities over the last year, *IF* ODX can supply 200K a month, then several months of that gets them beyond their entire output to date. And the £750K payment is nearly twice what they took in from LFTs in the 6 month report.

Small in the grand scheme of things, but we have to adjust expectations

SneakySimon, I'm guessing meant UK/CE Home use (not usa) approval, which would indeed be the next thing up.

Having had a booster a couple of weeks back, and having a really faint line from by previous biosure test, thought I'd get another to see what my levels are now. It's showing OOS, so I'm guessing they have been hit with the CTDA thing like everyone else.

Further down the same page, you see a similar passage for the Delta variant, however the wording is different..for the delta variant it says " we have conducted a thorough analysis of the new variant......and the sensitivity and specificity of our tests, including our BinaxNOW rapid antigen tests, are not impacted by the Delta variant." And although the Delta variant has been around for >6 months, that passage declaring the same figures for it's detection was only done in Aug.

Whereas for the Omicron they are saying "We have already conducted an assessment of the Omicron variant and we're confident our rapid and PCR tests can detect the virus."

Its far too early to determine sensitivity and specificity for Omicron, they are confident it detects it, but at this time they are not prepared to say the LFT is as effective.

different type of diagnostic me thinks.

Who can reply
"People @Omega_ODX mentioned can reply"

lol

https://data.gov.uk/dataset/0351cb08-2fcc-43df-914a-c1822d82b766/spend-over-25-000-in-the-department-of-health

Could be I've missed something, but I don't see any spending in Oct for any LFTs (Sterilab, Innova, Tannet Pharma etc)

Sweetcornhorse 20th Nov
"We are about to witness Omega Diagnostics go from strength to strength.... And we are part of it. "

Sweetcornhorse 25th Nov
"5p-10p SP ?"

See what Capt just quoted.

Given they resized capacity upwards x20 (100k->2M a week) mostly because of the covid opportunity in general and the gov contracts in particular, it's clear they are re-sizing downwards to reduce costs as the covid opportunities are not what they thought. We also know they have around 650K weekly capacity from their own equipment and 1.3M from gov equipment.

The chart on the presentation told us that the 6 months ending Sept 2021 they sold a grand total of £30K of antigen LFTs, and £400K of antibody RTC

Pick a figure per test as you like, but at even just £1 a test, that's 430K tests combined. I said, somewhat tongue in cheek many many months ago, when the usual suspects were talking about NDAs, producing at capacity week after week, and warehouses jammed full of tests, that I'd be surprised if ODX had made 2M covid LFT tests in total, nevermind 2M a week. And of course I got hounded for it with the "don't be silly, you think those 250 employees are twiddling their thumbs, and they keep on taking on more people"

Give than we know they sold 250K RTC tests in Sept 2020 to March 2021 (and not much other covid LFTs), adding that to a really generous 430K tests for the 6 months to Sept, you'll see that ODX hasn't even made less than 700K covid LFT tests in total in over a year.

I pointed out the consistent dodging of questions regarding, weekly production, total production and stockpiling in the last Q&A. We can see why they were not divulging them, it was all non-existent compared to many investors expectations.

The point of the above is with the gov contract currently dead, it wipes out a massive amount of the reasoning for having 2M a week capacity.

Note if you ask shredz a challenging question he'll immediately block you, only those that continue to pay due deference get to see his tweets :)

bigbangs
"they could hardly reduce their actual capacity as they have been producing virtually nothing."

You are confusing capacity with production. They increased their capacity from 100/200K to 2M without producing much. They have now indicated they will reduce their capacity

Yes they have launched "covios" which is their brand name for the test.

Mologic has rights. We have not been informed if ODX got exclusive 3rd party rights, at least i certainly don't remember. On the other hand i don't recall any announcements saying others had rights to the same test.

BigBang
Sorry I missed something, if at some future point ODX did receive confirmation from the DHSC that the contract was not only lapsed but they had no intention of utilising it in the future then of course they would have to report that but of course.

I disagree, they've told the market in an RNS it is dead.
"We now have confirmation that the contract expired at the end of Phase 1"

The extra colour around how it happened was provided via walbrook and the video presentation, not in the RNS. But they have told the market in no uncertain terms that the contract is expired. I don't want them under any circumstances to tell the market again, as it would just be repeating the same news again.

clearly if they get orders from HMG that's something different from the status quo.

BigBang, did you read the bit in the RNS that they said they are reducing their LFT capacity ? This is not just a "we have to formally tell the market", they are now acting in line with the contract being dead, as they have no visibility that gets them to requiring 2M LFTs a week.

CaptainSwag:
"I suspect Colin is also not used to his every word being scrutinised "
I would very much agree with this.

When listening back to the Oct 2020 presentation about the capacity, he stated that most of the Oct/Nov capacity (200-300K) was "already committed". At best, that's poorly worded as many would take that to mean that orders were in place for that weekly capacity, which was far from accurate.

BigBangs:
"I always read your posts carefully TWatcher as whatever else you are well researched but I am struggling a little to get your point. I don’t think you are suggesting that with this single new variant LFT’s are now worthless but you might be suggesting that some are more worthy than others in which case who is to say that the Chinese test are now even less effective than our own home grown test and what we actually have now is a major opportunity"

Bigbang, I frankly have no idea, I am just going on the public information that on immediately hearing that this new variant was on the move, they immediately scrapped LFT's being used for returning travellers. I *assume* it's because this is really fresh news and actually no one knows, so their first reaction is to go back to the more reliable (but severely capacity limited) test. Clearly it isn't a situation that can survive, and so they'll have to nominate / select LFTs that they determine will detect. And maybe in the scheme of things in a week or two, it'll be deemed that all PD passed tests will work and indeed all CTDA passed tests.

It's a "lets improve the odds" thing, until they have further information....in my opinion.

Hes only getting to the thought process that myself and others discussed here on Friday. i.e. how can ODX senior management not realise the contract expired on whatever date they were told was the latest extension to the long stop date. What he doesn't realise, or is pretending to be dumb, is that there is NO requirement in the contract for either party to tell the other than there isn't another extension. ODX may well have enquired about a new long stop date on several occasions, which means there was "discussions", but if no new long stop date came back, the contract expired. The mere lack of comms back from DHSC means the last agreed date is the one that expires the contract.

Once again people seem to be twisting and turning to come up with some scenario that meets their story, rather than accepting that the company has said in a formal notification to the market that the contract is expired, and as a result the company are reducing their LFT capacity.

I've review the presentation from Oct, which include a bar chart of capacity increase. Between the chart and the narative it states:
500K by Dec.
600K by Jan. This is not by more machinery, but by using the existing kit more efficiently. He says ( and this is being said in Oct) that they were initially trying to target 1M tests per week. Feb shows 900K a week, March around 1.2 and April around 2M.

This was 5 months before any antigen lft announcement, when ODX was just talking about antibody testing. To be fair the March and April steps on the chart are marked as "exploring options to acheive these levels of production".

But there was a clear assumption by Shareholders that in-house was around 1M, driven by that circa 900K figure for Feb.

660k commericial capacity does sound like less than what was promised. And in the several interims since then, there was no indication that the capacity was less in-house than what was previously advised was the plan.

"Several companies have announced already that based on in silicon analysis their products will still work."

However given the detailed testing that PDdoes before HMG uses an LFt for gov use, surely it'll be the same again. If absolutely pushed for capacity they might pre-qualify some of the existing gov selected LFT tests. but they'll still test them.

"Easier for PCR products"

Kinda has to be working for PCR, otherwise how was it picked up they had covid ?