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I posted a long message re the above and for some reason it has not been posted by LSE
Namely I think Arg and RKH are in the same boat , no sanction of SL we are both fairly brown bread, however my understanding, is HE are not going to be the front runner on this but let another more experienced company to actually produce the oil.
If that is the case Arg two fields will seem attractive to explore for considerably less than the 1 billion mentioned earlier.
Correct me if I am wrong but I think Argos and RKH are in the same boat with respect to survival, however Argos have another string to their bow namely their fishing business which is huge for the economy of FI.
They have huge influence in many other aspects of the whole makeup of the potential oil business , and I frankly find it tiresome that people on the BB make rather rash statements.
If HE do not sanction SL then RKH and Arg will no longer be a going concern , but at least the Arg directors have not paid themselves disgusting amounts of money.
I am still optimistic HE will go ahead with SL but as a partner to another well known production company, with whom I believe Argos have been in contact with , but honestly that name alludes me for now, they are keeping things very close to their chests.
Finally the Argos PL001 licence is and will be worth that partner to drill their two prospects and it will not cost 1 billion.
Read interesting posts on Rockhopper board
I agree with both Cyan And Steve comments especially the analysis of reverse takeover accounting, however Argos did find Noble and Edison to drill Rhea and one other prospect before the Rig started to falter badly and all concerned were unwilling to continue with a possible ecological disaster on their hands.
However Navitas are financiers rather than drillers , so SL was prime for their interests, notably Israeli interests.
Harbour will in my opinion want to partner a renowned explorer probably not British, to go into production, and reduce oil price turmoil , and of course squeeze FI for better tax terms.
I wish I knew who Argos are talking to , but John Hogan has been around here with Lasmo back in the nineties and has a multitude of contacts, and their is no better Chairman in Ian Thomson.
They are sitting on 100./. owned licence , fantastic seismic data, etc etc , the potential partner will want to drill a couple of wells especially as Rhea is such a short distance away from SL approx 3 Kms away no distance at all .
They own a third of Johnson already.
John Hogan Argos MD who left Chrysour in Dec 2019, as a non exec, has just raised further monies to keep the company going whilst they get a company to drill Rhea their own SL lookalike.
I totally agree with Cyan that no one is going to commit until SL sanction , so essentially we are in the same boat , however Argos has the advantage of undiluted shareholders and an extremely lucrative income stream by way of royalty payments on production , as well as the huge uplift in terms of share price, which of course will reflect on RKH to the same extent but without the pension like payments each individual shareholder Argos will enjoy.
It is extremely exciting times and the outcome is not far away.
Reasons to be jeerful.
Ian Thomson, is always very conservative in the content of any news, unlike the other companies involved in the past and current situation in the NFB.
However I agree with Cyan , Sea Lion sanction or action of any kind is critical to Argos, and as Harbour are now officially on board, even if they do not commit fully to production as sure as eggs is eggs , they will farm out to another company but retain considerable clout to support the huge potential return.
Remember John Hogan our MD worked as a non exec up to the end of 2019, not long ago, and was possibly more than helpful with thePremier tie up, with Harbour and of course the Navitas tie up with Noble before their commitment to SeaLion last year and still game on to do Sea Lion.
These guys are not going to pass up this opportunity I assure you, all to the long term benefit of Argos whose own licence potential is as huge as SeaLion, another reason to be optimistic.
As I said months ago Argos have raised further monies to secure funding the company until May 2022, meanwhile they are in discussion with a potential driller who might unlock the promised riches in mainly the Rhea site which was sadly only three weeks away from drilling four years with Noble. Harbour deal now sealed will add to the comfort for further exploration and the possible sanctioning of SeaLion. This share has huge potential.
I am afraid Tony I only asked the question with regards funding of the Sea Lion project, nothing else, having said that Dolphin drilling I gather got funding a year ago, a lot of goalposts have changed in a year with regard fossil fuels.
I am sorry I may have caused concern on that front but I am sure that any agreement will not be changed now.
There are also all the old concerns of funding any project which might inflame Argentina tensions, old hat I know but British Govt have been down that road before.
I do agree with the theory of HE not wanting to get too involved in Mexico, especially if the have SL gift wrapped, hence my belief that they will sanction SL but but with operating partner.
A reliable source is someone with whom I have known in the oil world for over quarter of a century, who has got a lot of future happenings correct , I am not going to going any further than saying I never post make believe or false posts , just sometimes add to the intelligent thoughts on this board which I enjoy reading.
I have a huge interest in SeaLion being sanctioned, and I really do not care who actually finally gets the oil out, but we are going to have to be quick and resilient to the new wave if this is going to happen.
Hi Much
Totally agree with your sediment about the ridiculous speed of dismantling the oil industry without any clear cut thought of replacement capacity, however on the question of Gov funding on Sea Lion , I have it from a fairly reliable source that any form of funding through the normal channels is off the table, however the Govt would like to offset the considerable cost of Armed Force commitment , funded by an independent industry.
I have always maintained Boris wants a new North Sea and another source of export , but I think it will be financed in a more clandestine way.
Hey Much
I do not disagree with the forty per cent holding and remain in control, but I do emphasis HE will not go it alone even if Navitas are on board. Especially as their is no chance of monies from Govt investment because of our climate change complexities.
Navitas might have a favoured American company with no links to Argentina , who have the same attitude as Noble had with Argos back in I think 2013 , who have themselves been bought by Chevron.
But I do agree HE will want to retain control, as at present they own the lions share and will not want to play second fiddle to anyone, however secretly the British Govt want a new NS .
Twenty per cent is probably the amount HE will retain of SL after farming out the rest to another company.
Not a bad prospect for RKH or ARG as the new company will want to expose the region over a twenty year programme and during this time HE will have a nice investment with little exposure.
Far from it, the FIG aware not going to not agree to an extension at this crucial time, however they will have to raise a small amount institutionally to fund the company for the next coming years , John Hogan the MD of Argos was an non exec with Choaysoar until Dec 2019, so have first hand knowledge of the tie up with Premier and more importantly the prospect of Sea Lion being sanctioned.
I tend to agree with Stevo12 analysis of the situation on Harbour Energy viewpoint on SL but they will I think farm out to another player alongside Navitas money and still take a say twenty per cent interest, and when the production is underway and money start to roll in they will expand the potential of the North basin more fully . Controlling the situation with minimum risk is their forte.
Johnson field and the surrounding Argos acreage namely Rhea must be a future target.
I have little hope for the Southern basin for certainly the foreseeable future.
No one has mentioned or noticed that John Hogan MD of Argos just happened to be a non executive with Chraoysor until Dec 2019.
The FIG have extended the overall licences of Premier / RKH and will extend the same courtesy to Argos in May.
Even if Harbour do not sanction SL themselves , as this type of exploration is not really their bag, they will find an active partner to produce SL and keep a small percentage themselves.
In the event of that happening the Argos territory only a few Kms away will be as tempting to one other as it did for Noble , who had it not been for a inferior rig bit Rhea would have been drilled.
At three pence as Wraith has stated is a no brainier, and with no dilution to existing shareholders and a probable royalty deal as before, which is a perfect pension source for at least twenty years.
It has not been mentioned on any BB but John Hogan Argos MD was a exec director of Chaorsyor until Dec 2019.
Argos I reckon will finance another extension of their licence through an institution fund raise through Cenkos, and then when Harbour either go ahead with SL with Navitas themselves or more likely farm out to another player and retain a 20% share, as they are not known to venture in such huge projects on their own.
It is starting to look good for Argos as they will do a similar deal as they did with Noble, which is great for existing shareholders as it involves no dilution,and a great increase in value and more importantly a twenty year royalty on production.
Remember Rhea is as big as SL and Argos own 30% of Johnson.
All oilies share rigs as was the case when Noble had the license , when their is a appraisal gap during SL exploration, then Rhea will be drilled takes Approx 3 weeks, and only 3 kms from Sea Lion, just shows you the close proximity.
I am a small holder of RKH but as everyone knows a larger holder of Argos shares.
Sanctioning SeaLion would inevitably allow the partners or another company drill the four prospects on Argos territory, which Rhea is a stones throw away from SL.
I agree with all Happyinvestors comments and remain quietly confident we all might at last reap the benefit after a ten year wait.