Member Info for Tuggy

I am not anti anyone and as perplexed as anyone with Rockhopper situation but I think even with the 750 m export finance PMO still need a partner and will not wish to go it alone.
Argos is a separate entity as it still owns all their acreage and will be seen as a foothold for any willing new operator to invest in without the huge payments, hence why I think it is a very good investment for the long term and short term with the share spike and no dilution in the value of the existing shareholders.
We will see in the coming months, once and for all .

Key question in all this is whether PMO will carry on trying to raise money for Sea Lion, or relinquish the territory to another major who has the muscle to start production.
The money raised from Zama will also help debt levels and leave the shooters out of pocket.
The only losers here will unfortunately be Rockhopper, because I cannot see PMO getting a another partner for SL . The new partner is required to help raise the 1.5 b PMO need , however why go into partnership with a company which will be so restrictive in monetary terms in the future years, when in fact that same partner can pick up the licence from the Falklands G for a minimal amount so long as they go into production, something the FI G feel is paramount.

I don’t mind being called Tubby instead of tuggy rather amusing, however Cyan is correct on the wording, I am out of RKH , would be pleased to be proved wrong, as you shareholders have had a rough time of late. All down to PMO I am afraid .

Argos will have a new partner to drill Rhea who will in turn do a deal with PMO and RKH to help finance production, that seems unlikely hence for my money on a new owner of SL being the preferred route for Argos.
If SL comes up for crabs a vast number of companies will be more than interested, that’s the whole point, and Rockhopper are very vulnerable and hence their share price tells a story.

The question is of course who is more likely to sanction SL , is it PMO and RKH or another new company waiting on the wings , my theory is the latter I am afraid , as I have had RKH shares for years and it will be a great shame their find has not been produced, but they picked the wrong partner in the first place .

My mistake in wording , I did not mean Argos would hire rig but whoever they get into bed with , will invest or fund the drill , for ownership of the prospect in return for an annual fee and a huge 5 per cent royalty on the gross production. The prospect of a rise in share price in announcing a drill , success of the drill and other prospects and the royalty and without diluting existing shareholders is and will be very very rewarding.

Negotiations have been active over the last thirteen years, and yet both parties have gone their separate ways, if PMO pull off sanctioning, ARG might hire platform to drill Rhea and if successful amalgamate into future production, however I think PMO will find it hard to fund without a partner who knows full well that if PMO do not sanction the whole RKH licence is up for crabs in its entirety rather than a small percentage.
Argos I think will prefer the latter scenario.

The current licence now expires May 1 st 2021 giving plenty of time for the sanctioning of SL to be settled a year earlier with PMO or for the prospects given new ownership and Argos fund their own drilling of Rhea with the new owner or another party. It is not in the best interests of the FIG to withdraw a licence from the frontier company and personnel who are wholly responsible for getting where we are today.
They never intended to raise money for exploration or production and will only need to raise a small amount for yearly expenses when Nobles money finished two days ago, however they have enough for at least two years.
You can disagree with me till the cows come home, but I am supremely confident the British Govt have big plans for this region and Argos will one way or other benefit meaning the shares will motor.

The PMO have to sanction by May 2020 if they do not then FIG will force them and RKH to relinquish their licence. Argos have another year after that to piggy back onto the new incumbent give up their licence for a royalty payment of 5 per cent of the gross production .
Remember Argos have the largest fishing fleet and own property strategically positioned in Stanley which they have owned for a quarter of a century and if you look at their directors you will people who live and work on the island .
Of course they will have to be successful in either scenario to maintain their licence but I do not think for one minute that they will give up after John Hogan the MD vowed after leaving Lasmo that he would see oil before he officially retired.

They only need a very small yearly income to cover costs, their main aim is to never dilute shareholders as the amount privately owned stands at less than fifteen per cent , Jp Morgan original backers still in as are all the old shareholders back ten years ago.
The reason Noble pulled was because PMO and RKH has no chance of production in 2018 so their Italian 25 per cent partner decided to pull out of all oil business internationally and sold up and Noble resumed their business in the homeland fracking in The Permian Basin.
Argos are in the very enviable position of any predators will encounter zero debt , but also the ownership of potentially a bigger field than Sea Lion for free, hence the reasoning behind any potential partner with PMO , why not just wait until their licence expires and get it for free.

Interesting comments but I believe Argos to be in a very good place as it will benefit from the sanctioning of Sea Lion as the rig can be used to drill Rhea during a lull in activity funded by an outside investor, OR the more likely scenario of PMO failing to fund or partner SL by the May deadline. The FIG will then offer the prospect to a much larger company debt free, which in turn will allow the use of the rig for Rhea exploration with in house funding from the new owner who in turn would pay a royalty payment to undiluted shareholders of Argos.
Argos have always believed this was the best way forward when they did a deal with Noble , whom decided the debt ridden PMO RKH partnership was doomed.
PMO have been very quiet about funding and the clock is ticking, I would prefer the British Govt select a new company who can provide 20 years of energy 100 per cent owned by GB, leaving us less reliant on foreign imports.

Now we have a clear mandate the F I will happen and Argos have some exciting options this will not be this low again.
If PMO and RKH fail , Argos will be in a better position, but either way Rhea will be drilled.

If matey boy gets in forget the investment in the Falklands and all sorts of other assets this company holds, investment will flee and we will have a country in crisis within a year and this share will probably go bankrupt and everyone will lose their investment.
People should not sleep walk into this scenario, I was working in a Merchant bank 1974 and saw with my own eyes the disaster.
On the other hand PMO get investment, this share will be a good recovery stock to hold long term .

If Corbyn gets in not only will Sea Lion the bread and butter for PMO for the next ten years will be not sanctioned but also a windfall tax on oil, when half the houses in GB still need oil and gas.
Quess who will pay because the billionaires will be long gone and the high taxpayers like a majority of PMO shareholders will be either bankrupt or in a loony bin.

Better go and see how all your investments would fair in Venezuela because that is the basket case you are suggesting we have to govern us. Your obviously a champagne socialist.

Boris might be your saviour you left wing git

The question is PMO are prevaricating over SeaLion, as they cannot afford to do it without another partner but that potential partner knows the clock is ticking with FIG and if they hold out after that period and PMO do not start sanctioning Sea Lion they will pick up the licence for considerably better value . PMO have to fund it themselves which is the only way RKH will survive.

Cyan you are incorrect in stating Chatham is not attached to potential prospects of Argos the exact amount is probably 20 per cent, however the Johnson field is varified as being thirty per cent in PLOOI .
No one at present showing their hand as to the significance of the extension of both territories at the same time and also more importantly the one drill condition put forward by FID to Argos.

If you read RKH bb over the weekend you will read some very interesting viewpoints , some thirty comments all relating to Argos.
Dare I say it but I think we are going to see quite a spike in the morning.

I fully agree with Nigoil ,in his defence he and I are only looking at possible scenarios that might happen in the next eighteen months, I have my theories and holding them close to my chest for the time being but all I would say, a lot of Nigoil theories are not that wide of the mark, so rather than joining in the discussion and dissing him always , I for one support his thoughts.
Question , why have Argos accepted a eighteen month licence and more importantly agreed to a one drill during that period.