Ovets has hit the nail on the head, something I have been saying for quite some time ,essentially someone big is waiting on the wings to pick this up for tuppence, from PMO who are hamstrung in so many departments and Rockhopper who are running out of money , time and options.
Not withstanding I suspect Navitas will remain in the frame in some form , as they can see the opportunity and will not want to lose this potential asset and act as a joint venture deal which is nine times out of ten how oil companies do business these days.
FIG will ask PMO shortly how long if oil goes to say 45 dollars will they suspend sanctioning.
They have so many plates spinning at the moment they might have to relinquish their jewel in the crown.
North Sea is on its last legs , this a completely new source of energy, why to think the Israeli ( Navitas ) are prepared to farm in with Premier. Premier still see this as their long term strategy and will resuscitate when POO is back in the late forties and purchase of the Shell fields , Zama is sold and the fund shorting the stock become redundant .
Premier announced this morning a very sensible decision in light of the current turmoil and has a encouraging footnote notable the Navitas comment.
Premier have announced the decision to suspend Sea Lion Phase 1 to minimise ongoing spend in light of the current market conditions.
SL is complete from a technical aspect and all of the work which has been done to date is being fully documented, such that the project can be reactivated once the macroeconomic outlook improves.
A reduced team will continue to progress government, commercial and financing matters including the transaction documentation with Navitas who remain committed to farming in farming in for a 30 per cent interest in the SL licences.
As my previous post in March said , the GB govt are not going to see this asset go to waste and also allow the current holders of said licences remain in place.
Just a little longer wait, but we are used to setbacks, however I prefer decisions made now rather than the normal ramping or dreaming comments that are numerable on Rockhopper posts.
Thanks Ralph for your normal well informed response , take your anger out on RKH , as I know you post there with the same venom , although Sam has taken fortunes out of the company the virus and POO has disrupted any sanctioning of SeaLion for the time being , but as I have just posted, the British Govt are not going to let a potential North Sea oil field discovery remain in the ground.
No I am not a member of the board but the very earliest investor in Argos and I retain just under 1% of the company having sold a quarter of my holdings in 2010 and bought and sold small amounts over the years. That is why I know that our BOD are beyond reproach and not filling their boots as is Sam at RKH.
I posted four months ago the possibility of PMO and RKH failure in funding Sea Loin , that I am afraid might be a reality sooner rather than later, however they have a asset which is worth something, so RKH shareholders will hopefully get some money back .
As mentioned also this opens the whole of the Sea Lion discovery up for grabs and I suspect Navitas will try and remain in the reckoning but with a robust company with ability to fund production.
Argos will then find it far easier to find a partner to drill Rhea and extend the discovery further , improve viability due to increase volumes and its location a perfect fit to the existing SL preparations for production.
Oil down to 48 and PMO down to 60 and RKH to 13.
It will pass as the worlds market makers make hay and PMO shooters get their money back.
Do not sell. By the way there are two guys at Argos who are in their late forties so they are not all fossils. Stay calm.
Thank you for your very well researched info re Argos prospects ,I a slightly at a loss why you remain so determined in pointing out the so called defiance’s of the licence , if as you point out the drilling of Chatham had not been so disastrous Noble would have gone on to drill Rhea, and I know for a fact they were very excited about the prospect, hence why their is considerable interest again .Cos percentages are only a quide and are not always that accurate.
I appreciate your point of view and strict reference to past disclosures by Argos , but then again they have to release information very much by the book, and hence where the BOD are reluctant to over egg the basic facts before them.
Cyan, I totally agree with you how the companies are separate, and also agree with Nigoil with regard the Chatham and Tyce fields flow into PL001 territory and the Johnson field is one third in that same licence so in effect there is considerable value even before the drilling of Rhea which is only 3 kms from Sea Lion.
Probably did not make it that clear in my last post, that the same people Thomson plus others front both fishing business and the oil business and of course parcels of land in and around Stanley.
One thing they will not do is give the licence or go bust.
Cyan in response to your input, of course the businesses are separate , oil, fishing and property all I am stating as fact because I actually know the people involved that their collective influence counts for an awful lot and they are considered in very high regard within the Falkland people and have been very much the driving force to bring the oil business to the region.
John Hogan fronted Lasmo back in the nineties and said to me personally he has come out retirement just to see the oil to flow from the region.
There are all sorts of scenarios which could happen , been rest assured we are at a pivotal point of negotiations which in my humble opinion will bear fruit.
I have read Cyan rather gloomy outlook and can see the obvious question is essentially sanctioning is crucial for RKH and PMO as the latter have planned for years FI is the preferred long term project , so if it does not happen Navitas will not farm in to help finance SL.
However I think Argos will survive if the SeaLion discovery is bought by a larger British company who can easily afford the production expenses, Rhea and the three other prospects are owned by a company who has been in the FI for a long long time and of course have a very successful fishing business and property interests on the island itself, so they will be justified in passing all their expertise to the new incumbent for a 5 per cent royalty payment of production income , rather than the embarrassment to all involved to withdraw the licence on a whim.
However if RKH and PMO do not deliver they will be shown the door I fear.
Realistically we should all be optimistic in their endeavours bearing fruit, the market will settle down soon, the Zama deal sorted and oil back to 55 dollars to allow PMO to pay down its debt and proceed with Phase 1 of Sea Lion.
My belief is that the company involved namely Navitas would have the opportunity to own the adjoining acreage to SeaLion for practically nothing as Argos are only concerned with future income for existing shareholders as reward for exploring and ultimately producing oil alongside SL.
It would also help pay the costs for their share of Sea Lion overhead with their own income stream.
The current oil price does not matter that much thankfully as we are looking four years away from first production which has a twenty year span.
The reward for Argos will be the in the obvious share price increase during the next year but also the future royalty payment will reward existing shareholders with no risk of dilution, in effect a perfect pension plan.
That’s my theory anyway for what it’s worth , I am sure someone will disagree , but I have been with this company since day one and hold the BOD in the highest esteem and know they doing everything possible the get a deal done.
Of course this is my opinion so as you always say DYOR, however sanctioning is important so all parties concerned have a lot to loose , however with the new impotence of a new GB government wanting a new territory the chances are certainly better than early December.
The RKH disposal of Epyptian asset significant due to their Israeli tie up and the fact they are based in Houston and Noble heavily involved in the Middle East, makes this farm in with PMO and RKH on Sea Lion sanction an easy gateway to have their own acreage which allows them to have a relatively cheap entree in PL001
No dilution for Argos and a huge potential royalty payment yearly which will make the value of the shares rocket.
Rhea will be drilled and maybe the other three prospects.
It is going to be as exciting as ten years ago.
Someone is slowly accumulating shares which are small in circulation, however I have a hunch we have secured a partner to drill Rhea, and an idea of who that is but I shall keep that to myself for now as sanctioning of SL not far away, and all will come apparent then, but I am very optimistic GB want this source of energy independent of outside influences, to the great envy of Germany and France especially.