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Certainly looks like a strong partner for savannah and big experience in closing a number of renewable deals towards financing, impressive credentials and I am sure the partnership would bode well for savannah. I am interested to see what the first funded renewable project impact on the SP for savannah would be, that would be interesting to see. As all the projects at the moment are still pretty much on scoping to study phases, but when savannah manages to land a renewable project which is either close to funding or funded that would be massive on the renewables front

https://www.rencore-energy.com/people-1

Looks like our next renewable partnership is in Mali and a wind farm 150 MW, with us partnering with another company called rencore energy.

Here is an interesting article on a potential investment by British companies in 🇲🇱 .

Rencore Energy and its partner Savannah Energy are British companies with considerable experience in the renewable energy sector.

https://x.com/uk_mali/status/1775457539347362299?s=46

https://www.rencore-energy.com/kayes-en

With CPF facility progressing and hopefully completing in the next few months alongside new gas contracts and increased volumes to gas power customers as well as commercial customers will significantly further enhance the value generated by the accugas business.

Interesting to see Nigeria has increased the baseline gas prices for gas supplied to power generation companies and gas supplied to commercial companies.

https://www.naijanews.com/2024/04/01/breaking-tinubu-govt-increases-gas-to-power-price/

Vitol in exclusives discussion, surely they would want a credible operator to run the fields for their loan.

I like this bit “ Meanwhile, Savannah Energy - backed by certain executives in the oil ministry's hydrocarbons department.”

Could Vitol provide a loan and savannah be the operator with the government having a greater profit share.

National oil firm under pressure to raise funds for Carlyle assets

The next few weeks will be decisive in determining whether Gabon's junta is able to raise the necessary $1.3bn to clinch the transaction with the American company.

An agreement under which the Gabon Oil Co (GOC) buys Carlyle's oil assets in the country was struck under the gaze of television cameras and in the presence of junta leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema on 15 February. Ever since, Libreville has been frantically trying to raise the required $1.3bn by the deal's May deadline. The GOC has undertaken to pay a substantial deposit of several tens of millions of dollars, and must now set about finding the rest. If it fails, Carlyle could grant GOC an extension or decide to prolong its oil activities in the country. Production is currently estimated at 45,000b/d.

Geneva-based oil trader Vitol is in exclusive discussions with the GOC to contribute a significant chunk of the purchase price. In exchange, Vitol hopes to obtain the right to market the assets' output. Its optimism is all the greater now that the Société Gabonaise de Raffinage has settled its debts to the trader (AI, 12/02/24). Until the end of the exclusivity period, GOC cannot enter into talks with new potential partners.

Under special adviser's gun

For Carlyle, the February deal was signed by Bob Maguire, head of the Carlyle International Energy Partners fund, which directly owns the assets acquired from Shell in 2017. The Gamba oil fields and terminal are operated by Assala Energy, which is run by Tullow Oil veteran David Roux.

The buyer was represented by GOC CEO Marcellin Simba Ngabi, who used to work for TotalEnergies. The pressure on Simba Ngabi is so great that the matter is being closely monitored by Gabon's transitional head of state via his special adviser on mining, hydrocarbons and energy, Arnauld Calixte Engandji-Alandji, a former director of GOC.

‘Gabon-ising' the economy

Meanwhile, Savannah Energy - backed by certain executives in the oil ministry's hydrocarbons department -, the Turkish trader BGN and Indian groups have also been mentioned as potential partners. However, none has made a strong enough commitment for exclusive discussions to be concluded.

The only certainty is that Maurel & Prom (Pertamina) is definitely out of the running. The group, already heavily involved in the country, signed a sale and purchase agreement with Carlyle last August, just before president Ali Bongo was toppled. However, when Nguema came to power, the new administration quickly decided to pre-empt the deal, making it a symbol of the "Gabon-isation" of the economy championed by the junta leader, who officially announced this decision in November, and reaffirmed it during his 31 December address to the country.

If we invited Petronas to become shareholders in the enlarged group of Savannah could it convince SS government in approving the transaction they will still get the comfort that they have Petronas still operating albeit through Savannah shareholding. Perhaps we could offer Petronas 20-25% of the enlarged share capital. I brought this point as I saw that the recent deal announced by Ithaca will see eni take an enlarged share capital in Ithaca and become a major shareholder on completion.

https://www.ft.com/content/ba599bb2-dd8e-4289-a80e-8a4d40ae6395

If the economics still made sense than it wouldn’t be a bad outcome although anything above 20-25% would reduce value enhancement for existing shareholders

The argument for approval at the moment could be that low oil exports and pipeline disruption and government coffers running dry could tempt approval from government if the exit tax or approval fees are tasty and high $100 - $200m dollars and could tempt the government into approval when they are struggling to pay salaries at the moment

Overall I am pleased with the rns for one main reason as it also a window for Q1 2024 update to land by 2 week of April as per usual timelines which will allow for a broader update on the business particularly interested to see plans on Niger being strongly articulated, also interesting to see how the accugas business is performing and if we are still growing our volumes by double percentage production. I always maintained in any circumstance or whatever is the outcome of SS I wanted to come back after the full year results of 2023. So I will be supportive of a further extension until mid June and come to market post full year 2023 results.

As for the rns last week I believe it’s probably to intended to make public the difficulties in completing the South Sudan deal I.e outing the South Sudan investment environment as a difficult place for

Investments. I believe if savannah think they have completed all there workstreams and the only thing now outstanding is government approvals than they are hoping a public statement will shame the government into action, especially with the South Sudan oil conference in June 2024, it could be savannah way of saying to the government you are your own stumbling block to approvals and a public statement could pressure South Sudan government and make it look bad especially when they are also looking to attract investments.

As for deals I believe Andrew should pursue an oil acquisition in Nigeria and if he can land another prior to re-listing that would be a bonus. Even a small acquisition of 10,000 Bopd and 50 million in 2p reserves would take us another level.

I want to remain optimistic on progress and closing of SS but I remain skeptical and believe if a rns does provide more detail next week it would likely be a public outing on the SS approval inaction more than anything else. I for one like all want a positive outcome on SS but let’s see the detail behind the detail that Savannah intend to provide.

The RNS next week could be as strong as savannnah have completed all work streams and if they don’t get approval in the next 6 weeks I.e by 17th May we will terminate the deal and come back to market it could be the final ultimatum to the SS government and a public outing

Wood Mackenzie predicting more Nigeria deal making

https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/navigating-nigerias-changing-oil-and-gas-landscape/

Great to see us engage in a top legal Nigeria law firm who are experts in oil and gas law alongside our UK based Bracewell team. Always great to see as it helps to tighten the SPA and deal approval process when the local law firm has relationships and experience with Nigerian laws and government representatives.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7176532218163396608?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7176532218163396608%29

I am sure they can help facilitate more deal making in Nigeria for us if they are not already in the midst of doing.

https://enradvisory.com/

Here is a great summary on what the new Oil and Gas reform to drive investment by Nigeria president means

https://enradvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ENR-Client-Alert-Presidential-Order-and-Policy-Directives-1-1.pdf

Naira continuing strengthen now 1 USD = 1362.50. Continues to strengthen significantly at pace.

Definately some nigerian deal making coming into play.

I have a sneaky feeling more Nigeria deals are on the cards or at the very least being worked on especially with the recent reforms encouraging oil and gas investment in country...................................

Https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/movies/exclusive-exxon-steps-assets-sales-145150073.html

Noix - Angola is one of the regions that the majors are still keen to retain and invest in as they have large reserves, but sure they may be looking to get rid of smaller fields a bit like afentra deals

One thing I find fascinating about Savannah compared to other small cap players is that AK has built a strong network in the industry and also some of the executive team are also ex investment bankers in there past life at major banks, in addition to this we have access to capital unlike other players.

This makes us a prime candidate for deals and we would definitely be on all majors list for divestment of assets, in some cases it wouldn't surprise me if majors came to us asking to buy there assets rather than us going to them such is our position of strength in negotiating deals. We have made inroads with 3 majors already since we have started to deal make Exxon, Petronas and Eni who we wanted to purchase tunisia assets on in the past, i am sure we there are many more which we would have consulted.

This gives me great confidence that we will always be offered deals, the question than becomes whether the deal is right for us from an asset performance and financial metric and how the host governments are receptive of us, both can be overcome with some hard work and going for the right countries.

NicetoMichu - One would imagine that AK plan is to come back being an enlarged entity so it stops future suspensions and they can carry on deal making whilst trading. Now whether that comes in the form of SS or another remains to be seen. It would seem illogical to come to market and than ask for another suspension if the acquisition is large they would be better of continuing the current one.

Looks like Bracewell continue to be our Deal advisors for acquisitions, let's hope they have a few more juicy ones lined up for us.........

https://bracewell.com/news/bracewell-advises-savannah-energy-on-acquisition-of-49-percent-participating-interest-in-stubb-creek-field

Rocky - This morning's news alongside hopefully Niger coming into play again has certainly alleviated some of my concerns. now and continue to be supportive of further accretive growth.