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Looks like Akwa Ibom government in south east Nigeria are building a LNG plant, I am sure this will unlock further opportunities for our accugas asset.

https://thestreetjournal.org/governor-umo-eno-receives-former-president-jonathan-over-planned-lng-plant-to-be-built-in-akwa-ibom/

Https://theenergyrepublic.com/nigeria-launches-new-fiscal-incentives-to-revitalise-oil-gas-sector/

Looks like first oil is now flowing to Benin port ready for first shipment

https://www.africanews.com/2024/04/24/niger-benin-pipeline-first-drops-of-oil-arrive-at-seme-krake/

Https://x.com/niger_cnsp/status/1781819448296370314?s=46

Looks like things could be moving quick now in Niger, with the oil minister having a meeting with CNPC and Savannah at the orders of the transitional leader. Seems like Niger are taking an aggressive approach and trying to push operators and partners to come together and be aggressive with their programmes by giving certain directives.

On April 20, 2024, the Minister of Oil of Niger, Mahamane Moustapha Barké Bako, organized a crucial meeting with officials of oil companies and their subcontractors. The main objective of this meeting was to transmit specific directives issued by Brigadier General Abdourahamane Tiani, President of the National Council for the Protection of the Fatherland and Head of State. These directives target the strengthening of oil and gas resource exploitation practices with the aim of consolidating the national economy.

Three key points were highlighted: optimization of contracts, improvement of recruitment strategies, and more rigorous management, marking an important step towards more efficient and responsible management of Niger's natural resources.

This initiative illustrates the government's commitment to maximising the economic benefits of its natural resources while ensuring sustainable and equitable management.

Discussion between the Minister of Oil

And the operators of the National Oil Company, China, Savannah and CEPEX

The Minister of Oil, Mr. Barka Bako Mahamane Mustapha, met Saturday in his office with officials of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Savannah and CEPEX, major oil companies in Niger.

The purpose of the meeting was to inform these companies of the instructions issued by the Chairman of the National Council for the Protection of the Fatherland, Head of State, Brigadier General Abderrahmane Tayani, within the framework of the arrangements for oil exploitation in Niger.

The meeting focused on three main points: operating contracts, hiring employees, and managing oil resources in Niger.

On the issue of contracts, Minister Barque noted that the national oil company CNPC and WAPCO had always been responsible for hiring their subcontractors, and if they failed to do so, they would bear the consequences. The Minister has already indicated that he will contact the Chamber of Commerce to create a database of companies that will be pre-qualified to provide upstream and downstream services, so as to officially send it to all operators.

Regarding employment, the Minister of Oil indicated that a joint mission from the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Civil Service had already investigated the matter at the level of Suraz Company and its subcontractors, then WAPCO Company and its subcontractors, and finally the China National Petroleum Company and its subcontractors. The final report was submitted on April 20 to the office of the Minister of Oil, who will transmit it to the President of the State, who issued his instructions in this regard

https://x.com/nigerar/status/1

Good to see Akwa Ibom Gas development being forefront of mind, with our CPF completion our ability to harness additional gas through our pipeline both through feedstock of new gas and delivery of gas to new customers will transform accugas asset to another level..

https://guardian.ng/business-services/fg-akwa-ibom-unite-to-unlock-economic-potential-of-gas-deposits/

This article is quite clear not all exports has stopped but they are at lows compared to recent highs. 6-8 weeks to get back to recent levels

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2558621-south-sudan-eyes-dar-blend-export-restart-in-6-8-weeks

Https://www.linkedin.com/in/chidimma-alozie/

Gas Commercial

Savannah Energy · Full-timeSavannah Energy · Full-time

Jan 2024 - Present · 4 mos Jan 2024 - Present · 4 mos

On-site

A new hire to focus on Commercial Gas, Joined in Jan 2024 from ANOH Gas Processing Company. This is the company which is bringing online a significant gas to power project towards completion with Seplat in Q3 2024, which is a massive 300 MMscfd.

Her recent experience and knowledge on that project which is coming online will add massive experience to our team. I wonder if this hire is designed to help us increase our gas contracts intime for CPF completion.

Perhaps and probably not out the question completely is could we pursue another Gas / Power deal in Nigeria, we know our preference is an oil deal, but additional gas deals in Nigeria are not bad if fairly priced especially with the recent pricing and sector reforms by the Nigerian government this year.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/julianaeigbe/

Business Development, M&A Joined August 2023

Perhaps if we can agree with chad to Compensate at a discounted amount for chad Doba field, whilst accepting our share in Cotco Separately would be a good outcome for all parties.

I believe someone posted a few weeks ago that SNH were talking to gran tierra about a partnership in Doba oil fields so it is definitely clear that they probably realise that they definitely need a partner to help them run the field as they clearly feel they will struggle to maximise the field otherwise.

We Know that Chad has elections next month on 6th May so perhaps they might take a different view once Deby has consolidated his power, perhaps for the time being he needed to appear with Chad first mentality to gain popularity but could pivot after he secures his win.

Rocky - On your question on Cotco revenues my understanding is that the funds still continue to go into and being held under the Citi Gabon account, which is currently under restriction, the only funds allowed to be paid out the account are for operational purposes, but any dividend payments of shareholders i.e savannah being one of them is currently restricted.

Citi Bank did appeal this last year and there was a hearing in January 2024. I believe our lawyers argued that the stay order should be in place till until the merit of the overall dispute for the Doba fields is concluded in Chad as that should help determine the merit in which Savannah Cotco holding based on the Chad Doba field outcomes. So in essence everything is tied together.

https://dockets.justia.com/docket/circuit-courts/ca2/23-1295

One thing I did observe is Jadestone had their deal terminated and returned to market on 11th April, it was suspended for 2 months from Feb at price 23.75p yet it came to market at a premium and opened back at 28p on re-listing a premium of roughly 18%

A lot of people quoting silly SP prices on SS deal failure cant contextualize, we have been suspended for 18 months with accugas hopefully performing at previous levels or better and we have also completed the Stubb Creek deal, plus on the cusp of CPF completion and potential for a Niger work programme. It would be hard not to still come back at a premium of our suspended price and hence even if SS fails I believe we will have modest premium price return probably in the conservative range of 30-35p as a minimum.

This is going to have a massive impact in the next few weeks and months. Dollars can no longer be used as collateral for Naira loans, which will stop the hoarding of dollars and more dollars will be liquidated to Naira thus massively increasing dollar supply in the next 3 months.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/nigeria-bars-lenders-using-fx-denominated-collateral-naira-loans-2024-04-08/

Interesting to see a new role being posted in Nigeria

https://careers.savannah-energy.com/job/Lagos-Supply-Chain-Manager-LA/975464255/

On the Naira Goldman predicting further gains and see potentially naira back below 1,000. I truly believe in the Q2 2024 we will see Naira back in the 800 - 900 range effectively re-couping all of the second de-valuation that occurred earlier this year.

It could also start to claw back some of the first de-valuation value which occured in June 2023. With Dangote and port harcourt refinery products reaching domestic market alleviating need to import dollar denominated refined products

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-12/usd-ngn-nigerian-naira-could-extend-rally-to-below-1000-dollar-goldman-sachs

Caution here is the article Vitol still front runners -

Trader Gunvor takes a swing at GOC-Vitol agreement over Carlyle assets

Guillaume Letessier, a senior manager at Geneva-based trading company Gunvor, visited Libreville in February to meet with junta leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema as part of the company's efforts to get in Gabon's good graces over its rival Vitol to buy Carlyle's assets. According to our sources, Gunvor offered the Gabon Oil Company (GOC) $950m for Carlyle's local assets, currently operated by Assala Energy. However, Vitol is also based in Geneva and has exclusive negotiating rights with the GOC for this. It is also promising the GOC a hefty sum in exchange for Carlye's production of 45,000 bpd. These assets were acquired from Shell in 2017 for over $700m.

This buying race follows the GOC's November 2023 announcement that it was exterting its pre-emption rights over Carlyle's assets in Gabon. Initially, these were supposed to go to Maurel & Prom, a subsidiary of Indonesian Pertamina (AI, 01/04/24). Oligui Ngema confirmed his intention to finalise the acquisition during his official New Year's address. On 15 February, Carlyle and GOC signed a sales and purchase agreement, and GOC must now raise the necessary funds to seal the deal.

Scotpak - if the company sticks to its usual reporting timeline than we should receive a Q1 2024 operational update either the coming we or the week after similar to last year, so I am hoping this will shed some light on a few of the items I have listed.

In conclusion, the strategic extensions undertaken by Savannah are not merely procedural but instrumental in repositioning the company for substantial growth. As a shareholder and observer, I maintain a positive and forward-looking perspective. I believe in Savannah's strategic direction and its potential to enhance value through careful selection of opportunities and diligent execution. The foundational assets in Nigeria and Niger, alongside prospective ventures, position Savannah for a bright future across the short, medium, and long term.

I am optimistic about the recent developments indicated by Savannah's announcements. Here's a summary reflecting my bullish outlook:

I'm encouraged by the decision to postpone market re-engagement until the full-year results are disclosed. This approach is prudent because the market couldn't properly value Savannah during its 2023 suspension, lacking a reference for its performance and growth trajectory in Nigeria. This extension ensures a fair assessment, irrespective of potential acquisitions.

On the Nigerian front, several operational and corporate matters are nearing resolution:

The Accugas debt restructuring, bolstered by the Naira's recovery.

The impact of the CPF completion timeline.

Engagement with new gas customers.

Finalization of the Sinopec acquisition.

The extension grants Savannah additional time to advance its arbitration cases. While outcomes may still be 6-12 months away, progress indicators are promising.

In Niger, the strategic focus remains paramount. With the pipeline ready for imminent operations, expectations are high for Savannah to prioritize this asset, acquisition aside.

The Mali wind project, pending government approval, underscores our commitment to renewable energy initiatives.

Recent updates suggest a strategic preference for market re-entry as a larger entity, possibly incorporating the South Sudan acquisition among others. This aligns with the notion that current extensions are strategic, facilitating a broader consolidation.

The pursuit of additional deals, such as the Sinopec Stubb Creek acquisition and interest in Assala Gabon (as reported by Africa Intelligence), demonstrates our capability to engage in significant transactions despite the ongoing South Sudan situation.

The continued ability to secure capital for attractive deals reaffirms our strategic acumen. The challenge lies in navigating approval timelines efficiently.

I am particularly supportive of pursuing the Assala Gabon deal, recognizing the value of a potentially expedited government approval process. This strategic approach may warrant a premium investment for timely execution.

This strategy suggests a desire to minimize future trading suspensions, leveraging current opportunities to enhance company stature and market presence.

Clarity around the South Sudan deal, particularly regarding government approvals, dispels previous uncertainties related to export routes and financing.

It's evident that the focus isn't solely on South Sudan. Discussions on other potential deals are advancing, with some nearing agreement phases.

Keep the faith guys you have got to understand that any update they provide has to go through various reviews and they are juggling a tight legal rope as well wouldn't surprise me if they wanted to run past the South Sudan government if the deal was still active the last thing the company would want to do is release something which jeopardises all the work they have put to date and annoy the SS government, this is one of the many reasons why I feel the company has chosen to provide limited information with this particular deal.

I will continue to keep the faith it what Andrew is trying to deliver and happy to receive only info which has all parties on board and keeps the transaction alive.

Tier - I am expecting the update to be wrapped in with Q1 2024 update and that usual comes in the second week of April so I am not expecting any news this week even though that was the words used in the rns last week. Perhaps they will be able to push out the Q1 202 update on Friday but lets see.