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Highly likely untrue but here you are anyway

https://x.com/africanledger/status/1801838296512807344

5) Getting some additional renewable deals agreed would not be earth-shattering but would be nice to grow the pipeline in that respect and take us to 1GW+ in H2 2024.

6) Although highly unlikely, it would be nice to get some engagement from the Chad government in H2 2024, and one would assume an out-of-court settlement should be the best outcome for all parties involved, rather than waiting for an official ruling in 18 months especially as Government of the Republic of Chad has acknowledged SCI’s and SMIL’s right to compensation. We are claiming $1bn plus but if we get circa $500 million savannah should take the money and be done with it.

I think it's fair to say the past 18 months of suspension and the release of the accounts have shown the business is resilient, and we have probably got the worst of our problems out of the way. I truly believe the next 18 months is where we truly unlock ourselves.

Going back to when we come back to the market, I said it previously, and I will say it again: we come back when we complete an enlarged deal, whether it's South Sudan or another.

My one ask of the company is that I am willing to give more execution time if they are able to keep the engagement and communication flow going. I have to say the past 18 months have been poor in that respect, but I am hoping we have turned a corner in this area now.

Let's see what the next few weeks and months bring, but to start off with, we have the AGM in 2 weeks, which should be interesting. It will surely be a forum for investors to air their concerns and frustrations to date, but here's to hoping Savannah is able to provide the reassurance of its current in-flight and future strategy with conviction and poise.

It's a two-way relationship, and Savannah needs to hold up their end of the bargain now and come good, especially in the context of the patience and understanding of shareholders that they have had to date and probably will still require.

Morning All,

Here are my thoughts in response to your question and for engagement:

1) They have mentioned completion of Sipec and South Sudan acquisitions in Q3 2024. Guessing completion on South Sudan is anybody's guess as we just don't have enough information on the state of play, and all we have got is the continued extensions and the word "advancing" used in every update. It seems like incremental speed each time, moving a bit like a tortoise towards the finish line, although we are yet to know how far the finish line is and how much of it is contingent upon the 3 main workstreams mentioned in one of the previous RNS's:

- Full year audited FY2023 accounts required for Savannah (This was released 7th June and will be signed off at the AGM by the Board on 28th June.) So this will be completed by the end of June. Nice and easy step 1 complete.

- Audited PCNL accounts. Rocky managed to elicit that this was due by mid-July, but let's assume it's delayed further by 2 weeks, so we say end of July. (I am guessing these accounts go through some approval and ratification process as well for sign-off, so let's assume end of August for full sign-off.) Step 2 complete timeline variation of plus or minus 2 weeks.

- Written government sign-off from the SS government. That's the big elephant in the room and where the risk of this deal inherently lies. Step 3 is out of our control, but I am hoping this is a formality and that such terms have already been agreed that it is binding on step 1 and step 2, giving the SS government a defined period of time to approve rather than kicking the can down the road.As far as the SPA we have struck so far, at the very least, the company needs to make good on completing the Sipec acquisition as a bare minimum. Albeit small, it adds credibility to the company's execution strategy. If it completes in Q3 2024, then debottlenecking should happen pretty quickly.

2) Completion of CPF facility targeted for H2 2024 - Accugas is our bread and butter and fundamental to our growth in the short, medium, and long term. I am looking for the company to deliver on this as a bare minimum. It would be nice if they were able to get it up and running in Q3 2024, but if not, then definitely Q4 2024, no excuses.

3) Tied to Accugas is the refinancing of our US$342 million Accugas debt facility. They have executed a transitional facility in Jan 2024, so hopefully, this is a precursor to fully executing the re-finance of the Accugas debt facility. Feeling more confident now than previously with the transitional facility that this is more a formality and probably timeline of sequence of events driven.

4) Progressing the R3 East Development project in Niger in Q4 2024 remains paramount for me, as I have always mentioned the first oil out of the ground in Niger provides a psychological step change for the company. In any case, I want Niger to be taken as seriously as near-term cash generative acquisitions.

Unless you have heard otherwise from IR and we are due a separate update ?

Komakino - I believe they meant the 2023 full year accounts and they have covered on that. So not expecting a separate update based on that RNS just for SS as they have touched on it already since the 17th May update in the 2023 full year results.

If we did get a positive update than I am not complaining and will be welcomed by all. But personally not expecting anything shortly or certainly anything before the AGM.

Realistically, I would imagine the next update to be in probably late July or August of anything.

Zengas - I saw that too and I am wondering that was also part of last year's accounts so I wonder if the other significant acquisition is already worked up but the rules may be restricting us from completing that deal as we are already suspended due to the SS acquisition, I am sure there must be some rules and regulations that would prevent savannah from either completing 2 enlarged acquisitions at once or to have the other significant acquisition to supersede the SS acquisition before some clarity is established on the SS deal

Looking at the FY 2023 for the year ending December 2023 they have a wee mention of south sudan.

On page 38 of the report it say's the following -

"Completed the portfolio high-grading exercise for Myanmar and Chad while advancing discussions on South

Sudan exit with the host government."

Seems like the messaging we have got from Savannah is consistent and aligned with what Petronas say in the report which is throughout 2023 they have been advancing discussions.......

Add that to the the additional snippets we have received from Savannah this year, I am hoping that the commercial negotiations and contingency payments on conclusion of transaction have been agreed and it's simply a case of having audited 2023 accounts for PCNL with South Sudan government approval on having sight of these accounts to approve deal and progress.

https://www.petronas.com/sites/default/files/uploads/content/2024/PETRONAS-Integrated-Report-2023.pdf

It will be interesting how much they will be able to disclose during the AGM if additional news on the deal is not provided to the market by the AGM at the end of the month. I am sure the inevitable question they will not be able to avoid is people natural asking about this deal.

Rocky did mention that audited PCNL accounts are probably due mid July if that is still true than surely by the time of the AGM this month the company should have an indication of completion of the audited accounts. One would still guess that the written approval from the government has yet not been received and if the PCNL accounts are done and dusted in the next 4 weeks assuming and we are still waiting for receipt of official government approval than the natural question will be how long can we continue this deal if all the steps required by Petronas and Savannah have been completed.

I am hoping that some sort of pre-conditional agreements are already signed between Petronas, Savannah and the south sudan government and it's a simple case of having audited accounts of PCNL which makes approval of the deal, payment structures and deal completion binding. As supposed to waiting on the whim of SS government on whether they want to sign or continue to drag this out.

Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Suspended, Under Review)

2023 results exceed guidance, multiple catalysts ahead

Savannah Energy has reported FY23 financial results this morning, which exceeded guidance. Total revenues of $261m (11% above guidance) reflected a 9% YoY improvement in average gas sales realisations in Nigeria to $4.5/Mscfe, while both operating expenses (inc. G&A) and capital expenditures were below guidance. 2023 Adj EBITDA was $184m, and Savannah ended 2023 with net debt of $474m. The report outlines the broad base of catalysts Savannah has in H2 2024 and beyond, all linked to its goal of further material growth within Africa. Completion of the proposed South Sudan oil asset acquisition from PETRONAS is targeted for Q3 2024, with the shares remaining suspended until the related AIM admission document is published.

2024 guidance: 2024 financial guidance is for Total Revenues of >$245m, with operating expenses and admin expenses totalling up to $75m, and capital expenditures of up to $50m. This excludes the impact of acquisition activity.

Nigerian operations: In Nigeria, the gas compression project at the Uquo CPF is on track to complete in H2 2024, enabling the future expansion of gas production for delivery to customers via its Accugas midstream subsidiary. The refinancing of Accugas’ $342m debt is underway with a new NGN340bn (c.$225m) transitional facility signed in January 2024. The recently announced purchase of its partner’s interest in the Stubb Creek oil field is due to complete in Q3 2024 and is to be followed by a de-bottlenecking programme to double production from the asset to around 4.7kboe/d.

Further catalysts across Africa: In Niger, flow testing of key fields within the planned R3 East Development project is scheduled for late 2024. The results can help optimise the development ahead of targeted first commercial oil production in 2025/26. The country achieved first oil exports via the new Niger-Benin export pipeline, with CNPC reportedly now transporting c.90kbbl/d. Meanwhile, Savannah remains ready to discuss its disputes with the Government of Chad on the March 2023 nationalisation, in pursuit of “an amicable solution” ahead of arbitration proceedings that are expected to conclude in H2 2025. Savannah’s Renewable Energy Division also remains very active with 696MW of projects in motion across Niger and Cameroon. Management expects this to increase to over 1GW by the end of 2024 and up to 2GW by end 2026.

Seems literally after after 28 months they have got to this stage that's 2 years and 4 months and by the time of completion probably 2 and half years. deal was first announced in Feb 2022.

If we are to continue or work towards similar timescales than that would be April 2025 for us, although big difference between Seplat and Savannah is that Seplat wasn't suspended whereas we are so we probably don't have the same leeway

Brilliant outcome for Seplat this deal has been in the making for years. Seplat will be an absolute beast of a company now

https://x.com/nnpclimited/status/1796084919182979404

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/oil-rich-south-sudan-seeks-250-million-from-imf-to-spur-growth?srnd=markets-vp

Great article highlighting China influence on achieving resolution on Niger / Benin Oil exports

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3263395/after-talks-china-benin-eases-oil-export-ban-against-niger

looks like gabon government have opened the field now to a wider pool, including tri***ura and bp. vitol don't seem to have exclusive negotiating rights anymore .

we need trifgura were interested before, i must say i am a bit surprised by an oil major like bp wanting to get involved in a brown field assets for assala energy, unless of course there is major exploration potential upside

dig/ the companies trafigura and british petroleum want to finance, on behalf of gabon, the takeover of assala energy assets valued at 720 billion francs.

a delegation led by trafigura's representative in gabon, bertrand rose, and xavier venereau, financial and petroleum product marketing manager at british petroleum. presented a financing project on may 22, 2024 to the minister of oil and his colleague from the economy.

“we met with the minister of petroleum to renew our support for the gabonese state in the area of ​​upstream and downstream oil.

there are many files in progress and we leave it to the state to choose the subjects on which we will work in the coming weeks.

the idea for us is to continue working to improve the sector and the living conditions of the gabonese population,” explained bertrand rose.

gabon's long-standing partner in the hydrocarbons sector, trafigura is one of the world leaders in trading, oil brokerage and maritime chartering specializing in the transport of raw materials.

the group is the partner of the gabonese state, particularly in the supply of white products, namely diesel, for which national production is far from covering national needs.

https://directinfosgabon.com/assala-energy-trafigura-et-british-petroleum-veulent-financer-le-rachat-pour-le-compte-du-gabon/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Mcn77 - I agree and hence afentra is just a reference point and not a perfect comparison although I would say if the market hence confidence that we have achieved first oil in Niger and converted our 2c to 2p than it might also attach a premium for future potential of the whole accreage and its exploration potential. So first oil in Niger is a big phycological step change in the market perception of the companies potential and hence a higher share price

I am quite keen on getting the Stubb Creek acquisition over the line quickly so we can get to 5,000 bopd quickly. The great thing about this is once we complete the deal the timeframe shouldn't take long to increase production and de-bottleneck.

The wells are already drilled so it's just about de-bottlenecking the infrastructure and getting the wells to production. It say's 2025 but I reckon if they can achieve completion this year than they can quite easily increase production post completion in short order.

The CPR document say's "The upgrade, planned for 2025, will enable up to two more wells, SC-2 and SC-5, to be put on-stream. The wells are already drilled and completed in the Upper D3 reservoir.

Rocky ride it's probably not a comparison but the azule deal completion and the presentation this morning has put afentra at 6,800 bopd net with 32 million 2P and 20 million 2C and Afentra market cap at the moment is £130m.

So if we get Niger to 5,000 bopd and convert the 33 million 2c to 2p than we should add Afentra current market cap to our current market cap or thereabouts. Taking us to £500m market cap, plus if we can materially increase gas contracts post CPF completion than hopefully another 100 million in market cap as a result of that. Plus if we factor in Stubb creek production increase and deal completion with additional reserves, another £50m.

I think without acquisitions we have a credible path towards £600 - £700m market cap company without acquisition based on purely maximising our current assets without further dilution £600 - £700m market cap will put us in the range of 45 -50p share price. I believe any value beyond 50p will need to be boosted by another acquisition.

The below article seems to imply that we should hopefully get first oil from Niger this year.

Meanwhile, London-listed Savannah Energy, the only Western oil company operating in Niger, plans to bring a new 1,500 b/d oil project online in the coming months before ramping up to 5,000 b/d.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/052024-inaugural-cargo-of-nigers-heavy-sweet-crude-en-route-to-mediterranean

Seplat is a great story to remind people Seplat share price approx 85p (£500m market cap) when we were suspended for the south sudan deal and today its 170p (£1bn market cap). Our shareprice on suspension is 26.25p (£343m market cap).

The gap in valuation prior to suspension was circa £150m and in the suspension period seplat has added another £500m, so all in all if we are to come back to the market at the same SP the value difference will be £650m. £1bn (seplat market cap) vs £350m (Savannah market cap).

let's not forget Seplat are likely to close there exxon acquisition within the next few months that could easily add another 1 billion to their market cap. So we could see Seplat at £2bn market cap on completion of their deal that equates to an SP of 340p.

That could mean the market cap gap could be £2bn (Seplat) vs £350m (Savannah) = £1.65 bn. In this scenario seplat would have been a 4 bagger from 85p to 340p (pending exxon completion obviously)

Would be nice if savannah can close this gap in some shape or form either through strong Nigeria Accugas performance, Niger or new acquisitions or a combination of a bit of everything.

Savannah has all to play for in my assessment and even without another deal, a strong and growing accugas business with Niger first oil can easily claw some of that gap in valuation easily.

So am I correct in saying that if we assume that the worst of the naira devaluation is out the way and let’s say 1500 usd to 1 US dollar is the low. So effectively if the company thinks that this is the low and continues to build cash receipts at current levels and than naira starts to appreciate than we could effectively net off some of the losses too.

I suppose it depends on the timing of the cash reciepts and at what rate vs whether the naira has appreciated or depreciated since that cash hits the bank accounts.

So depending on how the rate fluctuates some receipts could have gains and some could be on losses. But assuming naira is only likely to appreciate from here on in than any cash receipts are likely to see an fx gain in the future with appreciation of naira against the US dollar.

So perhaps the company might want to claw back some of the FX losses this way before converting the facility prior to the term expiry date that zengas alluded to

Obviously if we are significantly able to increase our USD denominated income than the problem would fall away easily as I would imagine the company would aggressively pay off the accugas debt and be done with it