Member Info for TrustILie

Zengas - Even if the chad deal fails to close, i imagine we would extend until the accounts are released and than come back to the market, with us being suspended for nearly 1 year and half there isn't a pricing point if the south sudan deal fails to complete so the release of 2023 full year accounts will inform the markets on how to view the business performance regardless of any other deals and attribute a deemed value based on performance and prospect assigned to accugas and Niger

We all know that savannah are under no obligation to wait for formal written government approval to come to market with an admission document, however with the chad situation and increasing trend of African government sticking there foot in divestment deals has made AK vary of coming to market without formal written approval on this front I fully concur with him and best to wait out as there is plenty of deals out there that has had interventions the list is endless, chad, gabon, nigeria etc................all the deals in the countries listed have struggled to close successfully as i write so in this respect we are not alone, the only exception is probably the afentra azule deal which again was smaller in size compared to all the other deals in various countries still awaiting government approval.

I think many on here are annoyed by the fact of silence on the accugas and niger side of the business where there the company has frustrated on that's the main sticking point and not the deal making for me personally.

Longshort / Zen - not long to wait now as the full year results are due in the next 4 weeks. So all will be revealed.

Personally if they can get stuff right which is within there control I.e cpf completion and Niger work programme than we will be on our way towards the so growth that we all seek here.

Time for savannah to be more aggressive with what’s within there control and not waste too much time on blue sky chasing

Reason I was excited by the the OML 13 production news is because last weekend the NNPC Gas and power minister visited critical gas infrastructure sites in Eket and I believe that's where our Uquo CPF facility is in Eket Akwa Ibom, the pictures very much look like some of our accugas infrastructure as I don't believe there is any other Gas facility in Eket, I wonder whether the visit was to do our CPFfacility expansion completion which is likely due shortly

Over the past weekend, Mr. Olalekan Ogunleye, the Executive Vice President, Gas, Power & New Energy, NNPC Ltd., led the State House Media Team on a tour of critical gas infrastructure sites in Eket, Akwa Ibom State.

I think the OML 13 production news alongside the Gas minister visit to see the gas infrastructure in Eket tells me that gas production is likely to start to ramp up in OML 13 licence area and we are perfectly placed with the CPF facility expansion and increase development in the licence

https://x.com/nnpclimited/status/1787860218732257667

A few weeks away from proving right those analysts who spoke last January of the fact that "this first operation in the oil sector since the August coup d'état is doomed to failure on a financial and political level and that it harms the investment climate of OPEC members”, those responsible for this takeover now have their backs against the wall. How will they go about obtaining this funding? What will be the conditions if they get funding? So many questions that arise at a time when “the GOC has clearly expressed its commitment to revitalizing Gabon's oil production through renewed exploration and a field optimization strategy” as stated Elsewhere recently indicated Sandra Jeque, event director at Energy Capital & Power.

https://gabonmediatime.com/rachat-dassala-goc-et-letat-gabonais-plus-que-jamais-sous-pression/

Pre-emption is never easy when the funding is difficult to find for failed economical states

Less than three weeks before the end of the pre-emption period, Gabon Oil Company (GOC) and the State are still looking for solutions to complete the acquisition of the Assala tanker. In search of the 1.2 billion dollars necessary for the conclusion of this operation, the Gabonese State comes up against its own turpitudes, in particular less than optimal governance and management of resources, which favor operating expenses to the detriment of public expenditure. investment. As a result, oil trading and brokerage companies could be called to the rescue, but at what cost? And under what conditions?

Announced just a few months after General Oligui Nguema came to power, the purchase of Assala's assets is struggling to be finalized by the Gabonese state, which is trying to buy time and attract new investors. In search of a strategy to shield this deal by the end of May and the end of the pre-emption period, Gabon Oil Company (GOC), mandated by the State in this operation, should for example take advantage of the Invest in forum African Energy 2024 (IAE 2024) which will be held in Paris on May 14 and 15, to continue its quest for financing. During this event focused on collaboration between European and African markets, Marcellin Simba Ngabi, ADG of GOC, will play his part. But how did we get there?

Follow us on WhatsApp

Receive the latest news live on our WhatsApp channel.

Join ➡

By putting forward its “right of pre-emption”, an initiative which according to several analysts, notably those from Standard & Poor's Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, could not hold water due to cash flow tensions inherited from the fallen regime, the Gabonese state which has since handed over to his secular arm in the oil sector, surely did not imagine such difficulties. Floundering between political will and economic reality, this operation seems to be in trouble and could further undermine our economic prospects, not for its irrelevance, but rather for the conditions that should be offered by investors in a context slowdown in global economic growth.

Only three weeks left to raise the equivalent of 7% of GDP

The Gabonese state which is trying to “call on trading companies to help it finance a 1.3 billion dollar agreement for the Carlyle fund's Assala oil company” confirming its cash flow difficulties and investors' uncertainties as to in our situation, is currently trying to complete this operation which is ultimately not as simple as that. With less than a month to find 1.2 or even 1.3 billion US dollars, the equivalent of 7% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the pressure increases a little more every day on the shoulders of resource people, in charge of this file which could have been discussed and handled differently in view of the emergencies of the day, particularly in terms of infrastructure.

Nigeria OML 13 is really coming to life now with first oil, this licence operated by Sterling Oil Exploration and Energy Production Company Limited (SEEPCO) is finally starting to produce oil and ramp up to 40,000 bopd by end of month.

Below is the extract from one of the articles highlighting the production and reserves of OML 13, and luck has it that we are the only pipeline in south east Nigeria to benefit from this where there is oil production there is also gas and Nigeria is keen to reduce flaring so we would be able to use all of the non associated gas and associated gas production to feed through our pipeline.

As a result of this could see plenty of Amocon stye feedstock gas being fed through our pipeline and distributed as seepco ramps up production in OML 13 now.

"When SEEPCO inked the FTSA with the then NPDC in June 2019, close to five years ago, a statement by

the NNPC said that the Indian operator, the only non-indigenous independent oil producer operating an

asset in Nigeria, would pump $3.15Billion to drain the recoverable portion of the 926Million stock tank

barrels (MMSTB) and 5.24Trillion cubic feet (Tcf) respectively of oil and gas reserves in place, over a period

of 15 years.

First oil of about 7,900BOPD was expected from the project by 1st April, 2020, while production is expected

to peak at 94,000BOPD and 542Million standard cubic feet a day (542MMscf/d) within four years, the

NNPC statement added.

https://x.com/nnpclimited/status/1789738184076607524

https://africaoilgasreport.com/2024/05/in-the-news/long-awaited-nigerias-oml-13-reaches-first-oil-looks-to-ramp-up-to-40kbd/

https://businessday.ng/energy/oilandgas/article/nnpc-secures-3-15bn-financing-for-oml-13-to-spike-crude-reserve/

I have always mentioned that accugas has the potential as a standalone asset to put us on a billion dollar business journey and I believe this positive news and the start of development of OML 13 will unlock our pipeline infrastructure further.

Https://www.africa-energy-forum.com/2024-sponsors

Looks like the funding is still proving difficult to close article from africa intelligence below:

I believe the vitol exclusivity period is until the end of May, so clearly there seems to be sticking points if they are still unable to agree with vitol, vitol as ever can provide funding but i am sure they have their limit as to concessions they are willing to offer no oil trader would sign a bad deal for them so not sure whether Gunvor or Trafigura would offer anything different to what vitol is offering

GOC changes advisers in quest to buy out Carlyle assets

The state-owned Gabon Oil Co recently reviewed its strategy to give itself a better chance of financing the pre-emption of the US investment firm's assets.

Gabon Oil Co (GOC) has changed its advisers as it searches for funds to acquire Carlyle's oil assets in the country, which are operated by Assala Energy, The Paris branch of US law firm Norton Rose Fulbright is now handling the legal side of the highly sensitive matter.

Norton Rose in the past regularly represented the son of former president Ali Bongo, Noureddin Bongo, who has been in prison since a coup last August led by General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema (AI, 19/01/23). Until April, GOC worked mainly with the Paris offshoot of the US law firm Baker McKenzie.

But on the banking aspects of the Carlyle-Assala takeover, GOC continues to use the advisory bank Africa Bright, one of whose new executives is Emmanuel Leroueil, who worked as an economic and financial adviser to the Gabonese president's office from 2019 till last October.

Leroueil was a director of GOC until last October. The Franco-Rwandan, a graduate of Sciences-Po in Paris, managed negotiations with oil operators in Gabon from 2022 until last year's coup. Prior to the coup, he had taken on increasing responsibility at the presidential palace in Libreville (AI, 07/12/22).

Exclusivity agreement

Gabon's junta leader said in November that he wanted to nationalise the assets of Carlyle, which produce 45,000 barrels a day, rendering null and void a sales agreement signed six months earlier with Maurel & Prom of the Pertamina group.

GOC signed an exclusivity agreement earlier this year with Vitol to negotiate the terms of raising funds in exchange for marketing the crude generated by these licences, which will remain in Shell's hands until 2017 (AI, 09/04/24). But the exclusivity period will come to an end in a few weeks' time and other commodity traders, such as Gunvor and Trafigura, are keeping a close eye on the deal.

GOC managing director Marcellin Simba Ngabi is under pressure to find the billion dollars needed for the state's pre-emption. If the compromise with Vitol fails and Gunvor or Trafigura cannot raise the money, there will be few other options.

Looks Like Deby has been officially announced as winner in Chad, not that it will have an effect on Savannah's case but will be interesting to see what direction he takes the energy sector now that he has secured and consolidated his position.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz96ezdljl9o

Interesting stance by the Nigerian regulator, they are willing to expediate oil major divestment plans if they commit to paying clean up costs

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/oil-majors-offered-faster-nigerian-exit-if-they-pay-cleanup-2024-05-03/

The South Sudan National oil company is in serious need of cash by the looks of it as it has currently implemented 50% salary cuts leading to some protests

https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1787148306507862178

https://x.com/ssemtv/status/1787134822747361341

https://t.co/SHLFwcI7QN

Clearly the South Sudan National oil company as an entity struggles with operational stability, and a very good example of why they are not ready to takeover the Petronas assests.

A strong market signal needs to be given by the government to increase investments and materially increase production from fields

Zengas - One thing I would like to add is if they are unable to secure another acquisition, and are unable to re-finance the accugas debt. Than my personal choice would be any cash which is considered spare and by spare I mean cash not needed for Accugas and Niger work programmes should be used to pay down the accugas debt as aggressively as possible or share buybacks. Personally not a huge fan of dividends at our current valuation and feel that paying down the accugas debt above the usual payments or share buybacks will be more pleasing to shareholders in terms of growth.

Zengas - Totally agree I think the company now has to deliver substantial / material news flow considering we will be suspended for over 18 months possibly even longer.

To put it into context Afentra was thereabout 25/26p in December 2022 now near 50p and Seplat our Nigerian peer was around 85p and now close to 160p. So these 2 companies are a classic example of seeing close to a 100% share price growth over the same period.

In similar context if we are to have parity growth over the same period than we deserve a minimum price growth up to 50p, and if we are to be fully diluted 1.4 billion shares that would equate to a market cap of circa £700m, how the company is able to deliver this growth will be interesting, now whether they can materially increase accugas output well beyond 200 mmscfd, start aggressive Niger exploration and production or deliver through another acquisition, but that's minimum that needs to occur

Looks like Deal approvals in Nigeria are gathering pace -

Nigeria

ENI sale of NAOC to Oando imminent

After concluding a months-long assessment, the Nigerian upstream regulator is expected to authorise the transaction in the coming days. The acquisition means the company led by President Tinubu's nephew will nearly double its oil reserves. [...]

https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2024/04/29/eni-sale-of-naoc-to-oando-imminent,110220658-art

If the ENI to Oando deal is approved than the Seplat / Exxon Deal and also the Shell / Renaissance could also be imminent. Perhaps there is never a better time than to strike another deal in Nigeria, whilst the government could be about to start an approvals spree.

The company has to do all in it's power to get another Nigerian deal over the line seems like the investment environment there is relatively more friendly albeit still drawn out.

The charts I am referring to is on the CPR document released in March 2024

https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/03/Nigeria-Competent-Persons-Report-18-March-2024.pdf

I was just looking at 2 interesting charts to see if there is anything that catches my eye and 2 charts particularly caught my eye, please see below:

1) Figure 4-2 Uquo Field production forecast profiles page 41 shows our production from roughly mid 2024 should be 190 MMScfd = 33,676 BOEPD.

2) Figure 4-4 Stubb Creek production forecast profiles page 43 shows our production being 5,000 BOPD from Stubb Creek

If those forecast are as accurate considering that were released in the CPR as latest at March 2024, than I expect us to between 35,000 - 40,000 Boepd by close of this year, unless i have misinterpreted what the chart is trying to tell. That doesn't factor in any production from Niger.

In that context our Accugas Contracts:

Long-term GSAs in place with the Calabar power plant (131 MMscf/d) and Lafarge cement plant (24.2 MMscf/d)

The GSAs have a combined 155.2 MMscf/d Daily Contract Quantity (DCQ) with an 80% Take-or-Pay provision

Additional interruptible GSAs are in place with:

Central Horizon Gas Company (CHGC), an Axxela subsidiary, for up to 10 MMscf/d

Notore Chemical Industries for up to 10 MMscf/d

Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) for up to 3 MMscf/d

Shell Nigeria Gas Limited (SNG) for up to 3 MMscf/d

Nice to see ex Nigeria president driving investors to Akwa Ibom state as promoting gas development

https://leadership.ng/why-i-endorsed-akwa-ibom-for-huge-gas-investment-jonathan/

Porsche - I have seen this article a personally I don’t believe any entity will loan 2-3 x GDP it’s another silly caltech style news and not worth the paper it’s written on. A distant relative of the royal family is laughable.

It’s like saying I am related to the royal family and got them on speed dial

Ground breaking ceremony for plant in akwa ibom in local ibeno area right in the midst of accugas pipeline, attended by Nigeria gas minister.

https://independent.ng/windek-energy-breaks-ground-for-20000-mt-liquified-gas-depot-in-aibom/

Zengas - With the target of reaching 200,000 bopd by 2026, one would expect an aggressive drilling programme in the 18 months leading up to it.