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Scotpak - I am no fx expert but I believe that the accugas debt restructuring to naira is not solely about the naira depreciation, I would imagine the company have taken a cautious view in re-financing as having a fully naira aligned debt amongst naira rate hikes could also increasing the cost of servicing naira debt.

Hence I think there would have to be a clever middle ground in restructuring all of accugas debt to naira that does the following:

1) protects against any further naira de-valuation but leaves room for positive fx appreciation in naira

2) protects against any future interest rate rises from Nigeria central bank as having a fully naira based loan could see our naira debt servicing increase with every rate hike

Perhaps this could be the reason that Savannah has held of on converting debt to naira entirely. One would imagine rate cuts in us rates will positively affect our US denominated debt so would it be better to hold USD debt for now as we are probably closer to US rate cuts than we are to naira rate cuts

Welcome your thoughts on this

Demand for a our gas will continue to grow, as Afreximbank grants $3.5bn funding for Bakassi deep see port, with the only gas pipeline in close proximity to the planned project, it makes sense why Savannah were keen on consolidating the stubb creek gas reserves from sinopec as well, the demand for their gas and the utility of there pipeline network is going only one way and this is up.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/05/criver-secures-3-5bn-for-bakassi-deep-seaport/

Location of port - https://google.com/maps/place/541115,+Cross+River,+Nigeria/@4.8861658,7.9560538,10z/data=!4m6!3m5!1s0x10679c3212428b3b:0x281026c7449a39d6!8m2!3d4.7691216!4d8.4293891!16s%2Fg%2F11nnm4mtbv?entry=ttu

Accugas pipleine network -

https://www.savannah-energy.com/operations/nigeria/

Rocky - I think payments to SS government are probably linked to this so PCNL accounts need to be audited, I also think perhaps the debt providers might want to see the accounts to determine the terms of any debt facility and hence that could also be a key reason why audited accounts are required.

All in all I look forward to the full year accounts to see how everything else is progressing

Kinkell - who knows perhaps the PCNL accounts are also required for 2023 as a lump sum payment is probably going to be given from by Petronas / Savannah as way of final sign off on the deal. Thus they need to see the audited accounts of PCNL for 2023 to determine the value of this payment and how it's performed and pay SS government a sign on fee from the residual cash in the entity.

First cargo of 1 million barrels loaded and ready for shipment.

https://x.com/gouvbenin/status/1792317435648860200

Caution although I recall rocky mentioning in his update call with IR yesterday that the company are going to release the financials this month so we are not exactly going to have to wait till 14th June

Keep the faith Rocky as I have mentioned I am not going to get frustrated about acquisition stuff and always viewed it as a bonus even if we are suspended for another year till June 2025, what i will judge the company on is how are they doing in Nigeria and Niger as that is the priority for me which I am looking to see how both of those operations are articulated in the full year results.

- I want to see CPF facility on the cusp of completion

- I want to see volumes increasing and potential new gas customers taking our production to over 30,000 boepd per day

- I want to see them clearly articulate how they are managing the Naira fluctuations, and if they aren't restructuring the accugas debt than how are they managing this now and going forewords, hopefully in plain English.

- I want to see Niger plans being more aggressive now that the pipeline is complete and oil is heading to international markets.

If they can achieve on all of the above than I will give them as long as they need to close the south sudan acquisition or bring a deal to market.

Obviously we will have to wait to see what the update within the next 4 weeks tells us in terms of South Sudan acquisition progress and whether we are still pursuing this towards completion it’s a wait and see.

Did notice slight drift in timelines as the one on the 5th April suggested AD would be published in late Q2 2024 /early Q3 2024. Whilst the rns this morning simply states Q3 2024 so we could in theory be talking end of September as well…………. As I said let’s see what the update says in the next 4 weeks as this one still lacks the necessary clarity.

At least we will have our full year 2023 accounts now been craving for a business update for our current operations for a while now so would be a good place for all on here to view how the accugas business is performing and Niger plans

Thanks Rocky - Appreciate that you keep the line of communication still open with IR and feedback to the board on the conversations you have much appreciated by myself and all.

Caution - I believe a lot of the info is based on FY 2022 accounts so perhaps once they release the FY 2023 accounts a lot of the actual content will be updated to reflect / reference the wording in FY 2023 document.

Https://x.com/gouvbenin/status/1790800423986565489?s=46

Is this the plan for Niger as per the updated website

https://www.savannah-energy.com/operations/niger/market-opportunity/

Interesting Looks like Savannah Energy has a new website which has just gone live, looks like they have enhance some design work etc.............

https://www.savannah-energy.com/

Looks like CNPC playing a big role in mediation and initiated first loading

Benin-Niger Pipeline: Talon authorises the first load

The Minister of Water and Mines, Samou Séidou Adambi, was in the afternoon of Wednesday, May 15 in front of Beninese media men. The objective of this press briefing, which he jointly hosted with the Chinese delegation, was to decide on the Benin-Niger Pipeline project. During this media release, the ministerial authority announced that Benin intends to play its partition under this agreement. "We have decided to authorise the loading of the first ship that anchors in our waters. Benin has no intention of harming the interests of the State of Niger or those of our common partner," said the ministerial authority.

This authorisation follows a letter from Nigerian customs to Beninese customs. The tone has not ceased to be harsh on the Benin side. According to the Minister, this authorisation will not be a rule of conduct for the operation of the Benin-Niger Pipeline. He also informed in his statement that an inter-state meeting will take place as part of the continuation of this project. The meeting was requested by the Chinese Wapco Society.

The objective is to examine urgent topics related to the proper conduct of operating operations. As a reminder, in the past week, Benin decided to block the embarcation of Nigerian oil from the Sèmè Kpodji platform in Benin where the pipeline lands. This decision was justified by the Beninese number one during an interview, the entirety of which was broadcast by the Presidency of the Republic on its Youtube channel.

https://lanouvelletribune.info/2024/05/pipeline-benin-niger-talon-autorise-le-premier-chargement/

Breaking news | Benin, Niger

Beijing dispatches delegation to Cotonou in bid to reach deal over CNPC oil

Breaking news published on 15/05/24, at 12:45 pm GMT - Patrice Talon quietly welcomed a Chinese delegation on the morning of 15 May. Its aim is to help broker a deal between Niamey and Cotonou on the thorny Agadem oil dossier.

A delegation including Chinese officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Energy, as well as executives from China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), is currently in Cotonou. Their mission is to settle the crisis between Benin and Niger over the Agadem oil field, which the Chinese state-owned company operates. The delegation arrived in the Beninese capital on the evening of 14 May, accompanied by the Chinese ambassador to Benin, Peng Jingtao, and was received in the morning of 15 May by President Patrice Talon. Benin's energy minister, Samou Séidou Adambi, and its foreign minister, Adjadi Bakar, were also present. In the course of the meeting, the Beninese side was persuaded to allow the filling of the first tanker with Nigerien crude.

Talon publicly had made it known last week that the crude oil from Agadem, which is being transported via a recently completed pipeline, would not be transferred to a tanker at the Beninese port of Sémè until the land border with Niger is reopened by Niamey (AI, 10/05/24). That border has been closed since the July 2023 coup d'état in Niger led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani.

Time is of the essence

The Nigerien junta is relying heavily on the $400m in pre-financing promised by CNPC, pledged against future shipments of crude oil from Agadem. But so far, not a single dollar has been disbursed.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking: the tanker responsible for loading the first cargo of Agadem crude oil entered Benin's territorial waters on 14 May. The 275m-long vessel named Front Cascade is registered in the Marshall Islands and has a capacity of 130,000 tonnes of crude oil, or 900,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The pipeline between Agadem and Sémè, completed a few weeks ago, is set to transport some 90,000 bpd from the Agadem fields. These fields have supplied Niger's Zinder refinery (20,000 bpd) since 2011.

Rockyride - On a deal cancel scenario a business update would have to be given on re-listing as we have been suspended for over 18 months, so even if there is a deal cancel scenario than they would have to either release a comprehensive business update or FY23 accounts.

Hence even if we are heading down deal cancel scenario, one would expect to either extend this Friday or if the accounts are ready release the accounts Savannah may seek to extend even if they know that is the scenario just by a few additional weeks in order to get the FY23 accounts out and than terminate deal.

The article states that the pipeline is a major boon for CNPC and savannah energy let’s hope this Benin border dispute gets resolved soon and Savannah release a compprehensive plan for Niger as part of full year accounts

Africa Pipeline Alert! – The Niger-Benin mega pipeline has transported its first Nigerien oil to the Seme Krake oil terminal in Benin. However, the oil remains within the pipeline due to a border dispute. Benin has said that Niger has closed its border with Benin, causing an increase in smuggling. As a result, Benin is refusing to allow Nigerien crude to be offloaded at the terminal. The pipeline runs 1,275 km from the Agadem oil field to the SORAZ refinery in Niger and then extends 675 km to the Port Seme terminal in Benin.

Niger is a landlocked country with severe infrastructure constraints. The new pipeline has a capacity of 110,000 bbl/d, with up to 90,000 bbl/d of this being exported from Seme and the remainder supplying SORAZ. The pipeline is a major boon for CNPC International Ltd. (operator of Agadem) and Savannah Energy (operator of the R1/R2/R3/R4 development), as it will provide easier access to international markets.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/welligence_africa-pipeline-alert-the-niger-benin-activity-7196108914524930049-cY5m?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Great article from FT highlighting the current dispute with Benin and Niger. I don't think this will last long considering it's in there mutual interest to get the oil flowing and loading from Benin port

https://www.ft.com/content/13ecd2c4-61a6-49c9-9b37-6429e3c67538

Looks like savannah will be moving to new head quarters in Akwa Ibom hopefully spurring the growth trajectory of the accugas asset and the recent developments occurring in OML 13 Licence area which covers our pipeline network.

https://daybreak.ng/aibom-multi-billion-naira-21-storey-building-still-vacant-four-years-after/

SP reporting today that we are still waiting on key approvals from Juba

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/051424-oil-output-dip-pipeline-woes-lead-south-sudan-economy-to-cliff-edge

Moment of flux

Promises to supply large quantities of crude to the UAE come at a moment of flux for South Sudan's oil sector, with Malaysia's Petronas in the process of selling the country's main upstream assets to London-listed Savannah Energy for $1.2 billion.

South Sudan holds Africa's third-largest oil reserves but has seen production fall dramatically from a peak of 350,000 b/d after independence from Sudan in 2011.

The Savannah deal -- initially expected to be completed in September 2023 -- would make the UK company a key stakeholder in Blocks 3/7, 1/2/4 and 5A, with a 40% stake in Dar Petroleum Operating Co., alongside CNPC with 41%, Sinpec with 6% and Nilepet with the remainder. The general manager position rotates between shareholders.

However, the deal has been repeatedly delayed, most recently on April 6, when Savannah announced the transaction would likely close in the late second quarter or early third quarter.

The UK firm, which last year had its assets in Chad nationalized by the country's government, is still awaiting key approvals from Juba.