Member Info for TrustILie

Zengas - I believe the incremental extensions are more for AIM to keep tabs on progress and nothing to do with us being close to completion is my take to be fair, it would not be prudent to provide longer extensions when the company has been suspended for long so the shorter extensions provide periodic check ins

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/makuach-j-makeny-p-eng-spec-35284128_nilepettower-stateoftheart-buildingthefuturetogether-activity-7169704142330871808-7_p-?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Zengas -whatever is going on it’s safe to say approval is still not forthcoming in the next 4 weeks. With a clear discord in ministries clearly our approval wouldn’t feature top of the agenda.

One hopes AK relationships are strong across the South Sudan political spectrum in particular those close to the president and the president himself to get this over the line. AK would have to be smart to grease all the wheels and stay neutral

Https://rb.gy/5z2nwe

Https://www.eyeradio.org/president-salva-kiir-inaugurates-nilepet-hqs-in-juba/

Https://x.com/southsudangov/status/1763921608228384815?s=12&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw

Nigeria trying to stimulate gas sector by isettling historical debts to power generation companies

https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1581559-improved-power-supply-coming-fg-finally-pays-120-million-gas-suppliers-boost-electricity/

SS president to inaugurate nilepet office today

https://m.facebook.com/Nilepetroleumcorporation

https://x.com/patrickheinisc1/status/1763875514098356429?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw

Longshort - agreed on the Nigeria fx stuff I think naira will see a material appreciation in H2 2024.

Not still convinced we are on track to achieve deal closure in this suspension window so let’s hope for another extension and see the Q1 2024 results in early April to give us an update on the wider business

Zengas - To put it simply pulling out of the deal made more sense earlier, but with every passing month the deal becomes more favourable and tastier in terms of balance of payments so makes less sense.

It all comes down to south sudan government approval, I would imagine that Petronas and savannah want to see it through. I guess the question than depends on hard deadline approvals timeframe, as there comes a point where some sensibility comes into play.........................

Can petronas and savannah continue in stalemate on approvals for another 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 months, that's the question and it's safe to assume by the change of wording that savannah are not coming to the market without an admission document so definitely not an easy conundrum.........................

Longshort - In my mind I had set the 15th March as my expectation, one would expect if we don't get anything by than than the last 2 weeks of March are more about planning for further extensions that's how I tend to view each extension to be fair is if we don't have anything 2 weeks prior to deadline than we are pretty much in the same position in terms of progress.

Interesting to see the below, we know the export issues and as the eye radio article suggest they are progressing with repairs.

Something that caught my eye is the mention of Vitol, seems to me like Vitol are the principal trading house that market south sudanese crude, and I wonder if they played a key role in us striking an SPA with Petronas, they could be our financial backers and with a company like savannah operating south sudanese assets and increasing production they would be the principal benefactors in marketing addtional volumes if south sudan can increase it's export capacity to levels it was capable of doing previously

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022924-force-majeure-declared-on-south-sudans-dar-blend-crude-loadings-sources

Morning All - A new month and all is quiet in the Savannah front.

https://www.eyeradio.org/crude-oil-set-for-smooth-flow-as-pipelines-under-repair-amour/

Https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-crisis-oil-red-sea-f8954810435083ade292f79ac08a7638

Sail - this article says it’s $23 dollars per barrel

I personally feel that both waring Sudanese parties need the pipeline revenues so they have already started to fix the oil pipeline infrastructure

https://twitter.com/RSFSudan/status/1761375911830503789

Https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1581142-fg-addressed-rumoured-plan-chevron-exxon-mobil-leave-nigeria/

Tier - SS Government is in a dire financial situation so unless so dodgy transaction occurs there is slim chance of them purchasing the acquisition themselves.

A few articles below to stew on until savannah is able to pull the finger out and provide updates

https://sudantribune.com/article282734/

https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-crisis-oil-red-sea-f8954810435083ade292f79ac08a7638

StreetsofGold - I am guessing the recent red sea troubles as a matter of fact would re-instate Petronas stance further for leaving. Obviously for someone like size of our company can extract significant value and is probably still a good asset to go for even with export interruptions especially if the balance of payment on closing is low with the significant amount of time passed since deal inception.

It clearly hinges on approvals being the main thing that slows progress or stops the deal from occruing.

Zengas - if there is a signing bonus attached to approval and deal it could expedite approval especially when the government is in need of cash