RE: Reversal14 Mar 2023 12:58
HVO had risen 130% since the New Year started, some sort of pullback and top slicing was inevitable at some point and together with a lack of newsflow over the last 5 weeks it was to be expected. Also we were heavily tipped in the latter of 2022 and earlier this year, many of the targets printed were hit and therefore there will have been profit taking from those that bought in on the tips.
More sellers than buyers? Recently yes, however there are two things missing in that argument, firstly that the sellers probably haven't outweighed the buyers on the rise, so it is in MMs interests to try and draw out more. Secondly one of the ways is to put both sells and buys through below mid so showing an inflated sell volumn, which in turn allows for people to believe there are far more sells than buys.
Then we have the SVB collapse, that should not affect HVO, however the whole market is affected whether directly or indirectly and let's just say if you were MMs trying to balance your books or even building up some stock for the next move up, the SVB market concern can help you to get more sellers out.
Lastly there have been a few rollovers and transfers go through and these will accelerate as we get closer to 5th April, as will anyone looking to crystallize their position by selling.
The reasons people were tipping this and buying haven't gone away,, the market is at best flakey at the moment, HVO is in a great position but all boats drop when the tide goes out and that is currently happening, there will be opportunities for some to get more/buy in before any further rise and I believe that won't be far away.