Member Info for triumph1

At the end of the day, I don't really care about the labour did this, tory did that waffle. I only care about the bottom line finances.

All I know is that any good business absolutely despises giving away a penny to the state and will go to great lengths to keep that penny....but would be willing to kill to make a penny. So what's the path of least resistance here?

Truss had good ideas to really kick-start growth and let businesses do their thing. But she failed in explaining how she will fund these cuts. She should have been much more aggressive on state wastage and efficiency savings like trump and elon are doing.

It's all well and good wanting to better public services....but biting the hand that feeds you without providing a bandage? No no no. That will never work labour.

It was always the case that uk gilt yields were placed somewhere between Germany (eurozone) and US. So i think you need to dust down and do some reading yourself if you think US debt has been historically lower yield pokerchips. UK guilt yields have shot past and overtaken US yields since the budget. Which for your reasons given re the US very suspect balance sheets, is even more crazy! Why is that? I simply explained the reason. Higher taxes and borrowing to fund things that are not going to drive gdp higher equals higher debt to income which equals more risk. The equation is that simple! There is no growth in labour plans. Whatever you say won't change the fact that there will be zero to negative growth. Labour are just feeding their fictitious black hole at the private sectors expense. You think businesses will take that lying down?? Hell no, they will run for the hills with their capital. Starmer and reeves made the same mistake as truss and kwarteng, but the opposite. One had no plans for funding tax cuts....one has no plans for growth increasing taxes. Funding and growth are the fundamentals to balance.

Oh and one more thing....never trust a politician with numbers! If you think that 40bn black hole, or however much she said, and yeah I couldn't even be bothered to remember the number....that's the reason. Its nonsense. Seems the cold hard logic take on a perspective on their own when talking to politicians depending on what side they lean....but in the bond market....that cold hard logic reins supreme, and things become much simpler. When you want the truth of the matter....study the bond markets!

And I'm sorry, but bond markets say no to starmer and reeves. The math just isn't mathing for them.

I never said the tories did a good job! That being said, debt to gdp flatlined mid decade and was actually on a downtrend....until covid happened.

Public sector costs inherited? Ha! They couldn't even explain where precisely they found this mystical black hole and its exact nature. But that's the thing with black holes....they are featureless. All they care about is consumption.

And back then, we had something called growth pokerchips! Funny you lefties dont mention that word very often. Its the most important side of the equation. If the economy grows, debt as a ratio of gdp....the metric the bond market looks at closely drops, which allows us to borrow more to improve public services! So wheres the growth here? Why do you think the US can get away with trumps rhetoric on slashing taxes but truss didnt, and still their bond yields are lower than ours? Growth is the answer!!!

None to negative growth plus borrowing at similar levels equals debt/gdp going higher, which means higher risk which means higher yield demanded. And if you actually think the money splurged on the public sector, mainly in the form of a massive pay increase across the board of the already inefficient public services will actually help, you are deluded. So ask yourself the question again pokerchips. Whose fault is it that we are stuck in a zero growth rut? Is trump putting up our taxes, killing off investment, driving capital away from us? Can you blame trump for that? Trump is UK friendly....if only we had a government to reciprocate and take full advantage of!

A mess entirely of labours making.

Will the bond markets overthrow yet another chancellor and government?

I can't see things calming down anytime soon without some sort of u-turn in this plugging of the "black hole".

That's the mistake that labour made. You can't plug black holes. If you feed them, they only get bigger, even more hungry and just as useless as before. This black hole is the state public sector.

Sorry pokerchips...disagree on pretty much everything. Starmer is not realist, all his policies are ideological.

How many times have "big bets" been made by past labour governments regarding increasing taxation and borrowing to "improve" public services, for them to only be made worse, less efficient and even more cash hungry.

Public services in the UK are monsterous black holes, inefficient and care more about ideologies and wokeness than practicality and realism. Example: TFL, though not state run...it may as well be as they constantly cry about being on the brink, with begging bowl in hand to public funds pretty much on a monthly basis and with horrendous service records yet they find £6m to name a few overground lines the most incredulous woke names imaginable with the help of that tool of a mayor who couldnt run the finances of a p1ss up in a brewery.

No matter how much cash you throw at public services, it will never be enough and will never get better....it will just get bigger, ever more hungry and more wasteful! The only solution is a massive efficiency campaign. Bonfire the bs mid management/consultant roles costing the NHS billions. Allow it to cannibalise itself to become more efficient and resourceful! Even ideas like massive subsidies of gym memberships and fruit/veg, or state gyms for those who are obese and go to the doctors/hospital every week clogging up the system with ailments single handedly caused by their obesity and lifestyle choices would net massive savings. Sometimes, it just has to be called what it is. Diagnosis: You are fat. Prognosis: Being too fat. Prescription: Gym membership. Thats what i call realist and practical! None of this mental health, body shaming, woke bs. You give someone an inch, they will always go for the mile. Sometimes a fatty needs to be called fat. Same as public services; they are too fat, and need to be put on a tough diet to improve their health! Not fed more.

Personally, i would go as far as questioning whether the NHS in its current form is compatible with UK's economic interests going forward, and whether it will or can exist in the next 30-50 years as it currently is as it is becoming too costly. Europe's social welfare/bloated public services is why the US is pulling away from us at an alarming rate. And what does Europe have to show for all this waste? F all other than being poorer with the same gaping wealth divide. Europes experiment with centralisation, woke ideology and beaurocratic nonsense has failed. I predict a total breakup of the EU within 20 yrs and a massive overcorrection to rightwing policies right across europe.

Porsche is certainly one of the more pessimistic on these boards, but you can't argue with his assesment of the current situation in the UK. I have very little exposure to the UK markets now and all income is in USD (thank goodness). i occasionally rear my head for a trade, but even then, when things look dirt cheap, you get caught out and they just get cheaper. There really is very little to be positive about. In fact, i can't see anything to be positive about for the forseeable future. Just think, we have another 4.5 years of this yet! And even then, who will be left to pick up the pieces? More of the same from the tories? You can see why Farage is making huge gains.

He needs to get trump to rein in Elon urgently though, or explain to elon very clearly that tommy robinson is a big no no in the UK. His claptrap about tommy robinson shows how little elon understands the political landscape here, and how politically toxic robinson is even to those who are moderately far right and have a brain. Elon is massively undermining farage and the gains made and is risking the entire party success. Not a smart thing to do for a supposedly smart man. Elon has now made any donations practically impossible for farage to accept without taking on severe, party ending political damage.

I dont think house prices will capitulate however. No way will 1.5m houses be built considering the stranglehold on capital required to build and i see no meaningful relaxation of red tape considering all this government want to do is bloat the public sector further. This will only squeeze supply.

Seems that way. Any ambition is slapped down, any energy and positivity is sapped, any growth is taxed into submission. Makes you think what's the point....and that's the point you really question whether we are becoming a socialist state.

The country still doesn't know what it wants though. Liz truss was lambasted for the complete opposite, trumpesqe budget of slashing tax and bonfiring red tape to boost growth. The middle ground has failed miserably over the last 15 years to create any meaningful growth and increase in living standard, and what we have now from reeves is miserable. So where does this leave us?

Farage perhaps? But all he cares about is immigration. If he started making right noises about the economy, I.e. setting up a department of efficiency like the US to torch the bloated cash guzzling public sector in a massive efficiency drive, reduce taxes to draw in capital and bonfire red tape...that would get my vote.

Agree that the UK is in a right mess right now. But borrowing is going down thus cost of servicing debt is lower. Just as well really considering the 30yr guilt yield is scarily high. With growth looking to go into reverse, the govt can't keep taxing to make up the shortfall. They are in a right mess of their own making, stuck between a rock and a hard place. Can't tax any higher as it would be political suicide, can't borrow because of the cost....

The UK is in a precarious position. Stuck in a high tax, low growth rut. But that's what the country voted for, so now we have to deal with it for the next 4.5 years. Terrifying really, its all doom and gloom. Hard to see any light at the end of the tunnel even for the most optimistic.

Haha indeed JDF7. But it's been a long time since we saw any swallows come our way, and it sure has been a long wait for that one swallow to land on our turf. Looks like all the bird watchers in the city are out with their binoculars. Where there's one, hopefully more are following.

Upgrades here, positives there. Is LGEN back in vogue? Sentiment can turn on a sixpence.

Mike was certainly undermined today by frasers stock movement.

Does he need to get his own house in order first? I'm sure the kamanis have a bound in their step today.

Could this finally be the long waited inflexion point? I cant remember the last day with lgen up over 5%.

Saw the same with barclays. One good report triggered a rally from 150p to where it is now. This is looking like a very good trigger to me.

Patience has finally been rewarded. I knew this day would come eventually, but it's nice to see it come sooner than expected.

Cor blimey. Lgen up on a report day? Must have caught a few out.

A lot of positives in that report

Yeah it does seem that way. Like pushing treacle up a hill on a good ftse day. Yet on a bad ftse day, this is more than happy to fall off a cliff.

This company has a terrible track record on report day. Sods law if you try to trade it, it will be the report that may kick start lgen into action.

Most likely a short closing I would guess given the volumes.

I don't know why the press keep saying that this spat is doing us no good. In fact, it's doing us great good! There's no more hiding behind covid for boohoo. This has put the entire management in the spotlight to get this dog barking again. Perform better or die is the message.

As I said, MA in the background = Good

MA running the show = Bad

MA only cares about....MA. He wants debenhams badly. He regrets not paying for it back in covid times. He will not make the same mistake again.

BOO, after this vote and if MA loses, should threat a suicide pill clause into any hostile takeovers in the future. Force his hand and get out in front for once. Force him to put his hands deep into his pockets if he wants debenhams so badly. Make him very aware that there is no sneaking through the back door.

Nope. The swap rates havent moved appreciably vs ours or the rest of the worlds, despite trump planning to slash taxes order of magnitudes greater than truss ever planned to. No massive spike in longer term debt at all, no armageddon or carnage or massively out of sync with fed rates. I really cant see any eyelids batting over in the US regarding debt markets out of control. The reaction here was a joke over just 45bn and caused by irrational debt markets via a negative media death loop (run on debt similar to a bank run) and lack of faith in the UK economy to grow its way back to prosperity.

The only thing different is that trump is very clear where savings are coming from, and is determined to slash government spend...something that truss didnt articulate nearly as well.

As we have seen, in the UK you are damned if you do, and damned if you dont. Inflation happens either way! The difference is, i'd rather have growth and inflation rather than no growth but still persistent inflation i.e. stagflation.

Punitive tax regimes only benefit cash guzzling state run black hole monsters who are still inefficient no matter how much they get fed. Government "consultants" paid eye watering sums to still fack things up are the only winners here.

Truss had some decent ideas. However the debt markets lack of faith in the UK was clear as day to see. Maybe she didnt sell it as well as she could have, or articulated clearly where she was going to make savings. The only progressive this country has become is progressive decline in wealth and growth.

Meanwhile, the US can and will cut trillions in taxes under trump. Debt markets dont bat an eyelid, and a pie in the sky 2 trillion state cut figure from elon musk is good enough for the debt markets. A paultry 45bn "unfunded" tax cut here, and all hell breaks loose and you get the IMF making silly comments about wealth inequality haha.

The only thing Truss miscalculated was the total lack of faith investors have with the UK markets caused by decades of terminal decline. Something radical like truss's budget was needed to jolt this market back to life. But now we are firmly stuck in the rut of a high punitive tax, low growth regime along witht the rest of europe.

What phyl said. The yield is about 9.7% here, but the fact that I am getting 4.5% risk free effectively provides 5.2% net additional yield risk on if ininvest here.

So is it worth it? I personally feel very pessimistic about the UK economy as a whole now after that budget. It was gloomy, uninspiring, and an absolute drain on confidence. For me, not worth piling in as it's hard to see when things will get better.

The US markets are probably the complete opposite. I keep saying its too high, but it keeps going higher. Or maybe I keep comparing it to UK which is like chalk and cheese right now. Has been for 25 years. Seems like the US is the only market in the world doing any decent. Europe is in trouble, China, ect. No wonder why everyone is piling in there.

Whilst LGEN is as frustrating as hell to watch, and it just seems to go down down down, eventually it will turn and when you least expect it. Look at BARC, meandering in the 130s to 160s range for ages and then finally the penny dropped. Same with NWG. It will eventually drop here and pick up again towards 300s, but probably not before we get an appreciable drop in swap rates. And who knows when that will happen.

Thanks to Mrs reeves, the dropping of the penny has been pushed back somewhat.

Yes the dividend is good, but I would prefer it to recover at least back to pre ex divi. We have been languishing down here for quite a while now.

For all intent and purposes, the dividend is effectively c.5.5%. I can get 4.5% risk free in a bank still, so is 5.5% extra worth the risk of piling into here. Not really.

When swap rates go back down and savers rates drop back, then the risk free yield gap widens. Thats when people pile in. Only then will the SP pick up to balance out yield.

Well Antony, he might just be our saving grace. Whilst everyone in labour was pitching for the wrong team, farage was the only one openly and proudly batting for trump, who hit a home run! The fact that are good friends might be the only thing saving a UK-US deal. And boy do we need some sort of get out of jail free card here. We need all the help we can get.

Beggars cant be choosers! Its getting to the point now that i'll rather vote for king kong to see some actual change as opposed to the same useless rubbish we have seen for the last 20 years who has overseen our wealth and standing evaporate. I dont see how farage could do a worse job than what is being done now.

As for the 1.5m houses, never trust a politician with numbers!

I agree with Porsche1946. Although a serial pessimist, this poster has been vindicated time and time again as the uk economy goes from crap to f&£king crap to a downright disaster zone gagging for breath on life support.

Things can only get better??? Not with this labour government! All I see is doom and gloom for the next 5 years at least.

The uk is absolutely uninvestable in this state.