Member Info for triumph1

We discussed this last night olderwiser; unfortunately for some reason our thread got removed/deleted. I thought we concluded that during testing, any flaring is likely to be intermittent short bursts. We also do not know the downhole oil/gas ratios, so we do not know the constant in the equation oil flow is proportional to gas flow, i.e by what factor is it proportional? The relationship is logarithmic.

So to state that lack of flaring means zero (or near zero oil flow), this is simply not true at all.

We also saw a document ftom the state of alaska posted by another member stating restrictions on flaring for longer than an hour (except for pilot light and emergencies). To purposely flare excess gas for long periods of time is illegal except for emergencies in the state of alaska.

In conclusion...we are not expecting to see a roaring dirty great flame from the flare stack for days on end during flowback. To suggest otherwise is just plain factually incorrect.

Yeah, fair enough Olderwiser.

I dont believe DW thought icewine would be a duster from the outset, and looking at the data, you could argue the probablity for good news was high hence the pre results ramping. In hindsight, this was a terrible idea. "Probability of good news" has meant nothing in the past, and pre results ramping based on probability of good news has lead to disasterous results. So based on history, logic would dictate the following where 88e is concerned:

- Ramp up from company into results = duster

- no ramp up = sucess?? (we never had this scenario before)

Probability of good news aside, i can only see it as a good thing that the company have finally learnt from their past mistakes of agressively ramping into results, which has lead them to dusters and disaster in the past. Has this leopard changed its spots? We can only know for certain when results come out.

And i would hardly call that a ramp where it clearly states in the bottom table 88e's share of resources. Even caling that a subtle ramp is a stretch of the imagination.

And look what happened in the past when 88e put a positive spin on things!

The fact they are remaining much more tight lipped and not being as rampy can only be interpreted as good. Let the results talk....then raise. What good would a rampy RNS do now regarding getting away a capital raise given the results are literally a couple of days away?? That would only benefit traders. The company have had months to ramp this to get away a raise, yet we havent seen any ramping at all. This is where your arguement falls over. We have seen a completely new RNS style throughout this campaign.

I dont see how you think a rampy RNS of the old DW days would be interpreted as positive! That would be history repeating itself.

Maybe they learnt their lesson from previous failiures Older. This used to get savagely ramped by DW back in the day if there was a sniff of oil. Look how disasterous that ended up. If 88e mentioned oil in flowback in some bombastic RNS, this would have got savagely ramped allowing traders to profit. Under promise, over deliver! Nothing wrong with a flat RNS...as long as they deliver the goods come results.

Mystic also has a point. PANR lending ther expertise would only happen if it was worth their efforts. I cannot see this backscratching happen if PANR expected a duster.

Cant believe i am saying this, but even putin is right on one thing. Getting caught up in RNS semantics is pointless, as there is no reading between the lines there. Its a straightfrward RNS detailing when results are expected. Nothing more, nothing less. Why would they mention any oil shows in flowback if results are to be released in a few days? That would be very rampy to me, and a massive sell signal.

There is one massive positive in that RNS!!!

The company have stated clearly the results will be with us by the end of this week. Before this release, we were all thinking that there could be a major delay in the release. Now that simply isnt the case. On AIM, knowing when news will hit without any major delay is very positive.

I expect the SP to react accordingly.

Yes igor. Nothing more sinister than that. If there were technical issues or serious disruptions, the company would be legally obliged to inform us.

But now we know it is happening. They spelled it out for us clear as day now, so the SP should now begin to move north in anticipation.

Yup, results for the first zone will definitely be next week as expected (Thu or Fri), with operations ending mid april with second zone results following. We all knew the deadline slipped a little, but a couple of weeks is immaterial.

So there we have it. Lets see how the market reacts to that, as now the company have put a definitive timeline on results for the first zone!

Now is the time to take your positions people! Now is the time to be in or out. Lets see what the SP does in anticipation of a definitive newsflow date.

You would think that to have any sort of credibility going forward (not that they have much going into this test given their track record), at least the first test zone needs to be complete by the end of march, which is effectively until Friday next week.

Given the last RNS on the 11th, i firmly believe first zone testing should be complete by the end of march, so hopefully we recieve an update next week. Lots of SP movement next week as it is surely the last full week before results come in, and many will be taking positions. Now would be the time for the speculative ramp up into results if there is to be one.

As for those commenting on 88e and its valuation and comparison to the likes of others such as PANR, for some reason unbenown, the market does price 88e at a premium like for like despite its past (which trust me, i am equally puzzled). But to say this valuation is inaccurate is also inaccurate in its own way as after all, the market dictates a value, and this premium valuation has remained for such a period of time now as it is safe to say that it has become normalised/baselined. It is illogical based on this to suggest that the SP will not increase if 88e does in fact flow commercial oil which will improve on this baseline the maket has given 88e. The SP will certainly move if they find commercial oil! However what i will say is that if 88e fail to flow commercial, perhaps the premium valuation "spell" would break, and valuation models such as Scots could come into play. Funny old things are stock markets, right or wrong doesnt really matter for long periods of time. It just is what it is...until it isn't.

A very exciting week ahead, and many will be firmly watching 88e for any signs of a breakout. If 88e do finally strike oil, then the SP will increase significantly. That I have no doubt about.

Good luck to all!

Still all to play for here! An uptick in derampers is a good sign for things to come. Holding firm here.

So what banditputin? Dont mock others misfortunes as what goes around usually comes around. At least shareguru had balls to sell his burger van. Heres hoping he will own his own fleet after 88e flows and gobs in your burger.

GLA, and filter the noise! not long now

Put your tray tables up, because we have lift off! More of the same tomorrow please

Next stop, the moon. GLA!

Taking longer than expected, but convinced she will get there in the end. Lets hope today is the start of the runup to news.

As usual on AIM, the small PI does the heavy lifting and takes all the risk. Big business and end users get all the reward in a nice neat, derisked package without a care in the world regarding how many millions it took to get there. Thats just how the world here works.

As always, its all about timing. Holding an AIM stock is an utter mugs game and is not how this game should be played unless you want to keep your shirt.

Indeed. seen so many times oil fields that had oil in them which were commercial on paper, but low natural flow rates and fast tapering of these rates meant artificial lift was required. This costs millions of dollars, very high risk and lots of time. So many have come a cropper over this. "0.5million minimum"? i dont even know what that means. Was that the lowest flow rate seen throughout the testing campaign? what was the peak flow rate seen, and under what conditions, i.e choke size ect? Its odd that a more detailed explanation of these figures is always left out on HE1.

How sustainable is that flow rate even? We wont know until the EWS is carried out. You cannot blame the market for reacting the way it has.

My money is on a JV with Noble. It makes a lot of sense, both operate in the same area, both looking at the same data ect.

But yes, the scary part is the cost to bring to production. Early days, but the well doesnt flow naturally as well as we all hoped. Still, very early days and a ton of variables that need to become constants.

Unfortunately this is untouchable at the moment. Even for the bottom feeders/contrarians.

Certainly on my radar, but the dust needs to settle first. The company is under scrutiny now, so would not be surprised if more things came to light.

Writing was on the wall here, and you cannot blame the market reaction. Tens of millions spent, tens of millions more required for a well that produces £3m/pa GROSS. This doesnt een take into account downtime ect.

Obviously more wells will be drilled, but how much more will that cost? how much will fine tuning this well to flow better cost? artificial lift required? Will there be a return on the vast amounts already spent? So many questions still need answering, but one thing is clear. HE1 desperately need a JV. Why not get into bed with Noble? It would make a lot of sense considering they both operate in the same area.

HE1 will be diluted to oblivion without a JV. Even then, expect heavy dilution here. Will it all be worth it for the HE1 shareholder? Im not so sure. As usual, the small PI does the heavy lifting and big business reaps the rewards.

500mscfd×0.047%×365days×US450/mcf = US3.86m or approx £3m.

What research are we missing here mrnewbie? Perhaps you would like to enlighen us all with your interpretation of what a flow rate of 0.5mmscfd equates to.

Well, in the face of it, 0.5 per day or approx $3.6m pa simply wont cut it. Calling this commercial is stretching the imagination, and forget about seeing a return on the tens of millions of dollars poured in to find this trickle. Certainly no gusher like some were expecting here.

There was always this risk with unconventional plays. And now lorna has to work out how this unique formation works in order to increase flow rates. Stimulation/artificial lift is almost a certainty now, which will require another 10s of millions of dollars. I hope she has a good plan!

She really needs to pull something out of the hat now, becuase i cannot see a return on equity here at all. Its back to risk on from here on out after todays news.

As for the SP...the fun is over. I can see this drift slowly right back to c.1p based on that.

Dont let the resident doomers who have set up shop here prevent you from an opportunity to make money on AIM! Every board has one.

A run up to flow results is fully in play here! History has shown us time and time again that this is the only time to make money here. Fact!

Who can be surprised by an election victory of a rank outsider in a place such as Rochdale. As always, context is everything, and galloway, like so many politicians before him fully capitalised on the disenfranchisement of so many groups of people, of which Rochdale (Even mcdonalds left rochdale town centre!) seems to be the epicentre. All he had to do was rattle a few sabres. The oldest trick in the book, but still as potent and effective as it was in the 30s.

If this isnt a wake up call for lib/lab/con, i dont know what is. Because with all of what is going on in the UK over the last couple of decades, the ground is fertile for populists to seize the initiative and bloom through age old tactics to get people to vote with emotion and stoke up tensions.