Member Info for Trinityman

EmeraldCarrots @ 14.30: 'Angle getting a bid. I'm lost for words.'

If only..On both counts.

DocD -

I genuinely hope you're right and you get some sort of reward for holding on until the bitter end, no one has put more time, effort or thought into this board than yourself.

It's a personal choice to buy, hold or sell, no agenda, gospel or motives from me.

I've supported SNG longer than most and have always backed up my thoughts with supporting evidence where possible, instead of endlessly ramping/ deramping on a daily basis.

Always fascinating to see old names disappear without trace when the ship starts sinking and new names with the same message appear.

ATVB

I agree with your forecast scenario Doc - So what is the rationale for not selling at 2p tomorrow and moving on?

As much as it pains me to say this, I can't see any reason for holding now, unless I'm missing something?

T

DocD - As always, another good post.

To those who are considering hanging on grimly in the hope of regaining some of their losses, here’s an example of what dilution actually looks like today. One of the most over-hyped doomed to fail shares in AIM history, ‘SYME’ (Supply@Me Capital PLC), who have no physical product or technology to market, merely a future concept.

8th Feb 2020 1.2p

8th Feb 2025 0.002p

Minus 99.8% down in five years and this is a listed company that is still trading on AIM.

Now imagine the level of dilution a private, de-regulated company could bring to the table. These figures are a sobering reminder of what can happen when clinging on to the wreckage, in the vain hope the lifeboats will come to the rescue.

I’ve made good money on SNG in the past and also lost heavily on ‘Black Monday’, selling out as soon as possible to avoid further losses. In an effort to recoup some of the deficit, I built another position on the strength of the ‘mini trial’ announcement with an average of 5.6p, hoping to sell on the ‘bounce’ when the start date was announced.

When these trials were abandoned, it was clear the company had lost it’s way, so I immediately sold out around 3p for another loss, as it was obvious which way the share price would be heading after yet another disappointing RNS – Swings and roundabouts as they say.

I’ve lost 3% of my total portfolio on this share, not great but not the end of the world. My wife and I are not happy with the way the BOD and Marsden in particular have behaved towards shareholders, but we’re hardly ‘destroyed’ as one of the mentally ill posters on here would like you to believe.

With the macro economy deteriorating with every month, I’ve readjusted my entire portfolio to 80% commodities, mainly in the precious metals and energy sectors, with only a small interest in two AIM shares remaining AGL and PHE, both are long shots and not for the faint-hearted.

I’m only invested there, as I like what they could bring to the world, any profit would be most welcome but I won’t lose any sleep if they go the same way as SNG.

I’ll remain here a while longer to rake over the coals with the handful of remaining sane posters and leave when I reach my 5th year anniversary on this board, but won’t hang around with those hoping to survive, as things usually turn sour as reality starts to kick in with each passing month.

T

scinv – you were banned off this page for constant vile abuse – shall i trawl through your posting history and re-post the long list as a reminder to those who still remain?

pathetic that you have the time to do that – i don’t, as i have a life away from lse.

easy to denigrate with the benefit of hindsight, there were many who thought this a decent punt pre p2 and we all multi-bagged and banked good profits – where were you then? nowhere.

there were even more who thought this was a decent punt pre p3 results. without punters there would be no aim, there are always winners and losers – and then there’s you, sliding back onto the board to snipe on the sidelines.

i didn’t notice you on the ncyt board when the ‘early birds’ bagged x11 inside a year – profits my wife described as ‘obscene’ at the time. you’re never around when shares do well and you’re always there when they collapse, a truly sad way to live.

p3 results showed sng came fairly close to pulling this off, for brevity i won’t quote the p value data again, but the truth is you didn’t want this to succeed – you actually wanted failure so you could say, ‘i told you so’, which you have done many, many times now - a sad, sad way to spend your time.

without trial and error there would be no new drugs and without investors who are willing to take risks in the early days of development there would be no trials.

most investors only allocate 5-20% of their portfolios to aim/ ftse350, so don’t think we’ve all lost our shirts, we haven’t. you’d have to be greedy, naïve or desperate to risk everything on any one trade/ bet/ investment.

i was told some time ago that due to staff cuts, these boards are no longer well regulated, allowing people like you to **** off highly respected investors and research scientists alike.

you are a shining example of why the majority of investors have migrated away from these boards, in order to have a more civil conversation elsewhere.

you’ve made your point, now leave.

Scinv 09.40: 'In my humble opinion...'

Humble?

There's double standards and then there's this... You don't even know the meaning of the word.

At least credit some of us with memories longer than a goldfish will you.

Thankfully, no one engaged with your opening gambit over on the AGL board the other week and no one will here any longer.

Only last month you were telling another hapless poster he 'deserved to lose all his money', adding to your extensive litany of bile spewed from behind the safety of your keyboard.

Go away and ply your miserable diatribe elsewhere you odious creature.

Genuinely sorry to hear of your plight Gampy, really feel for you.

Your story brings back too many bad memories, reading about the tragic losses inexperienced local investors endured up in N. Yorks in the aftermath of the SXX debacle.

'The Whitby Gazette' printed many stories similar to yours, including a heartfelt account of an ex war veteran who only had months to live, placing his entire £120,000 disability pension pot into Sirius, in an attempt to provide a secure future for his wife and kids.

I know, I know - He shouldn't have listened to the snake oil salesman or put all his eggs in one basket. The guy admitted he knew nothing about investing and was charmed by the CEO at a village hall presentation if memory serves me correctly.

It really was a difficult read, even for a thick-skinned seasoned investor like me.

I hope I'm wrong about the FCA, but their long-term track record is poor and you need a cast-iron case to succeed with those people and sorry to say there simply isn't one here.

It's pitchforks rattling the gates at present, so don't get your hopes up too high, as you could be setting yourself up for more disappointment and you've already been through quite enough as it is.

TM.

(Cont from below)..

In other words, I had no idea whether my e doc had been opened or ignored. I’m going for option two, as in my and several financial journalist’s opinion, the FCA are a toothless entity, merely a flimsy facade designed to convince the general public that LSE is a level playing field for both institutional and individual retail investors alike.

Some will say all of the above is sour grapes from a disgruntled investor, but it’s not as I’ve been ‘playing the AIM game’ for over twenty years now, so I appreciate the risks. It’s the equivalent of backing 50/1 outsiders at the racetrack, you know most will lose but you expect a decent ride and assume the jockey has some clue how to guide your selection to the finish line, not lose his way half way round and pull up short.

Selling out and taking a heavy loss is all part of playing the AIM game. Hanging on and listening to the fools that tell you, ‘A loss is only a loss when you sell’ is never a good idea. Shares could have been sold for 30-25p during the week of ‘Black Monday’, but most thought the loss was too big to cope with and hung on for dear life. Wouldn’t you love 25p for your shares now?

Knowing when to let go is one of the hardest lessons to learn, even harder at 2p, but those still holding are like guests who are the last to leave a party. The music has stopped, the drinks are no longer being served and everyone else has gone home. Your now unwelcoming hosts are looking at you, wondering why you’re still here and wishing you’d leave, shortly they’ll make sure you do by turning the lights out.

Imagine stirring your shares around in a mug of coffee, now imagine throwing them into a washing up bowl and then a swimming pool. That’s what dilution will look like going forward.

Selling shares in a private company has to be carried out ‘over the counter’ (OTC), so you have to find a broker that is willing to find a buyer on your behalf. This involves higher dealing costs than simply clicking your keyboard and the spreads are wider, meaning you won’t get a fair price.

No information, no control, no profit.

Selling now will give you the chance to start licking your wounds and begin the process of recovery much sooner. Learn the lessons and take the experience with you into the next phase. More on that another day, with apologies for the long post.

TM.

I haven’t posted for around a year now, but this isn’t a return as I never left, preferring to simply read this page every evening, as I have since Jan 2020. Five long years, longer than most.

Most of my thoughts were usually already posted and expressed more eloquently than I by Doc83, DocDaneeka and the weekly summaries from the always reliable Paladin.

Before you gradually take your leave, many thanks to you three gents for your contributions and also to Diffps and Jint for their excellent reporting back to the board. A fine example of how to communicate and keep shareholders abreast of current events, unlike a certain CEO we could mention.

I noted with surprise the recent post from ‘Fred16’, who is actually a woman. I won’t give her name for obvious reasons, but I can confirm this lady is 100% genuine, a regular working mum with kids who was caught up in the Sirius Minerals debacle a few years ago. A regular poster on that board and Facebook page, who helped set up a support group and potential legal challenge to the former CEO of Sirius, for grossly misleading investors on more than one occasion.

Private investors need deep pockets when taking on multi-national companies in court, guess who will run out of cash first?

A noble idea in theory, but pointless throwing good money after bad in practise IMO.

Having been deeply embroiled in the SXX scandal myself, I decided to paddle my own canoe and go down the FCA route. I wrote a carefully scripted 20,000 word document, ensuring I didn’t incriminate myself and also a longer article entitled ‘Daylight Robbery’ and toted this round the media in an attempt to garner interest. No takers there, as most considered the content a legal minefield and wouldn’t go into print or go on camera. The closest I came was strong interest from a BBC investigative TV journalist, who was cut off at the knees by his immediate superior, describing it as ‘a can of worms’.

There was prima face evidence of sustained suppression of the share price by ai bots, backed up by an Australian journalist, who campaigned against routine foul play on many AUS commodity shares, providing You Tube video links explaining how bots and ‘big business’ routinely take control. I opened up a direct line of comms with this totally genuine and brave guy, who was already fully aware of the Sirius situation from a third party.

A couple of weeks later his website went down and he was forced into hiding, due to constant personal family threats and harassment.

Complaints to the FCA have to be made in writing, they are NOT the equivalent of The Citizens Advice Bureau for investors, with a friendly voice at the other end of the phone – Far from it. You receive an automated reply, confirming receipt and explaining they will consider your complaint, but would not enter into correspondence about progress.

(Cont Above)..

DocD/ Fruits/ Et al:

Apologies for any ambiguity caused yesterday, to clarify:

From memory, Holgate has been researching into respiratory medicine for over four decades now, Synairgen were set up over two decades ago for the same reason. P2 should start before 30/06/24, but I estimate it will be at least two years from now before definitive P3 trial results will be released via a JV and we finally find out the true value of our investment.

20+ years is a generation, but that’s how long this process takes.

It takes time and time is not on our side. Anyone looking at the macro-economic picture will tell you there is another global crisis on the horizon and AIM shares don’t fare well in such an environment.

This did not start out as what some term ‘a covid share’ and it isn’t one now. SNG were blown off course by a once in a lifetime pandemic. Yes, funding came as a result, but I’m of the opinion that without covid, SNG would be 2-3 years closer to knowing how effective their course of treatment is in treating other respiratory conditions than they are now.

Covid/ Sars etc are transitory, but COPD and asthma are constant and that’s where the recurring income streams lie. These are the primary focus of GSK, they own 5 out of the top 10 selling respiratory drugs – Kerching.

As we wait ever so patiently for news, I was trying to impress that this whole process takes far longer than some members of this board realise or are willing to admit. I used TD’s quote merely as a starting reference, not to take sides.

I have absolutely no intention of getting in the middle of the long running three cornered spat that has been a feature of this board for over two years.

All three have provided valuable info/ insight in their own distinctive styles over the years.

I totally understand everyone is getting more than a little prickly now and I lay the reason for this firmly at Marsden’s door.

A breadcrumb trail, a bone to chew on, a mere morsel – Anything would be welcome at this stage. This isn’t a hand holding request, it’s normal corporate practise for the CEO to update shareholders on a quarterly basis as a bare minimum and RM has failed in his duty in this respect.

Hopefully our reticent CEO will deign to speak to those who are rattling their virtual pitchforks and lighted torches against the railings down in Southampton sooner rather than later, finally giving us a timeline for P2.

As always, ‘The Paladin’ summed the situation up nicely earlier this morning:

‘Last year, Simon Shaw spoke positively to investors and clearly stated that successful P2 outcomes would be likely to attract investment from BP companies.

Until we hear something to the contrary, this is what investors have been left with. The sooner that Synairgen add further clarity to their previous statement, the better it will be for all concerned.'

ATVB to genuine LTHs.

Good to see TommyD and DocD finally finding common ground yesterday.

Almost the equivalent of Putin and Biden shaking hands!

TommyD last month:

‘Generally developing a drug takes 10-15 yrs on average.’

Whatever your opinion of the poster TommyD, he is 100% correct when he says new drugs tend to take approx 15 years to develop.

This timeline is based on development by major pharmas, so a small research spin-off company like Synairgen will take even longer. Factor in another 2-3 years due to the disruption caused by covid and you’re looking at a timespan of 20+ years.

Here’s just a couple of examples relating to commonly used respiratory drugs:

Brown inhaler (beclomethasone) – First patent 1962 – First sale (USA) 1976 = 14 years.

Blue inhaler (salbutamol) – First patent 1966 – First sale (USA) 1982 = 16 years.

Blue inhaler is the 7th most prescribed drug in USA – 61 million sold last year.

Global patient numbers are massive, as are the profits.

It’s worth the wait.

The following link provides the numbers and shows why GSK are always looking over the shoulder of companies involved in respiratory research.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1061043/top-asthma-medicines-sold-worldwide-by-revenue/

If SNG succeed this share will move North and fast.

If SNG fail, they will de-list from the stock exchange.

‘Trial and error’, but with the ‘error’ now largely factored in, this is no longer a 50/50 coin toss.

Not a share for the impatient or faint-hearted, but certainly compelling at this price.

Contrarian investing i.e. finding shares that are out of favour and undervalued can bring rich rewards, but you have to mentally prepare for the occasional loss now and again. If this does fail, you won’t hear any complaints from me, as no one told me to hit the ‘buy’ button.

I have the upmost respect for Sir David Jack, whose pioneering work led to the mass production of the commonly used inhalers listed above. These drugs changed the quality of my life, along with the lives of countless millions around the world.

I have the same respect for Sir Stephen Holgate, as without researchers of his ilk, new respiratory drugs would never be developed.

I for one hope that Sir Stephen’s decades of work come to fruition, for him, his colleagues and ourselves, but mainly for the millions of sufferers who are in desperate need of new treatments.

I guess we’ll find out within the next two years….If you can wait that long.

....invested/ genuine/ ill?

I'll leave you to decide.

‘Proven product’.…’Viable option’….OK, so you’re not reading these terms in a peer reviewed article in ‘The Lancet’….Yet. However, if you were one of the patients described below, you would certainly class yourself as ‘living proof’. These are just two examples of the type of patient SNG will be looking to treat in P2/P3.

Four years this week since my first investment here, in Spring 2020 this board had a similar feel as today. Only a small group of shareholders were posting, one or two were squabbling amongst themselves, along with a smattering of naysayers and damaged individuals sowing the seeds of doubt as per usual, as P2 trials were about to begin.

A couple of months passed when a link was posted, taking us to an image from a local paper of a smiling man surrounded by his family, from Melton Mowbray I think. A week earlier he was at death’s door on an ICU unit suffering from covid, but after trialling a new unnamed drug inhaled via nebuliser he made a remarkable recovery and went home early, virtually back to normal.

A couple of weeks later, another link appeared with a similar story, this time a woman from Hull had made a swift recovery from a position of little hope. Both were from SNG designated trial hospitals. This new trial drug was definitely ‘proven and viable’ in their eyes.

Investors started topping up, the share price rose from 20p – 50p within a couple of weeks as news spread, then multi-bagged during the summer when P2 results were released. Shares that were freely available around 35p in March were trading for well over 200p during August.

Four years later, we have a similar scenario, preparing P2 trials in order to reduce the time spent on ICU units.

With a specifically targeted cohort of patients (precision medicine), there is no reason why we shouldn’t see similar results.

I doubt there will be any mid-trial leaks this time, as covid is no longer a headline grabber and we won’t see exaggerated gains when the whole investment community seemed to be jumping from one covid stock to the other from week to week.

Even so, decent profits should be there for the taking for contrarian investors and LTHs may reach the nirvana of ‘break-even’ or better.

The current situation was succinctly summed up by ‘Doc83’ a couple of months ago:

‘To me, the plan is simple. Get the P2's underway, pass them, see a rerate in the SP and then partner up with BP for the P3. This is also what SS said to me post AGM.’

Holding an opposing view is fine, but you have to question the motives of those still present, who don’t think these trials will go ahead due to lack of funds or will fail due to lack of efficacy. If this is a dog share, why are they still here?

Waiting over two years for SNG to fail to say, ‘I told you so’ is a desperately sad way to spend your time, as is hovering over your keyboard in total isolation all weekend waiting for TD to post.

Are they inves

Fruits – With reference to ‘a large slice of the pie’:

This depends on an individual’s perception of the term ‘large’. You may consider a 33% slice as large, where another may view a 50/50 split as favourable, some would be content with losing 60% – We all have our own personal viewpoint of what is large. Obviously the quality of P2 results, the cash position, the resilience of the BOD during negotiations etc will be key in determining ‘the slice’, assuming we actually reach that stage.

I would imagine initial discussions will already have taken place to some degree behind closed doors.

Judging from most of the comments on here, investor fatigue is now well and truly entrenched. I suspect many individual retail investors would be relieved to see any type of JV and eventual takeover, in order to finally see SNG leave their portfolios. Playing ‘the long game’ takes patience, more so when a pandemic forces the ship to alter course for a couple of years.

Your link was an interesting read and shows how the BP view of minnows like SNG has altered over the years but even so, it has to be said the company is in a much weaker position post Sprinter with regard to negotiations going forward.

The future risk/ reward factor cannot be determined until we know the cash position/ P2 results/ TFG stance/ present BOD view etc.

As we move into Spring, I assume we’ll find out where we stand sooner rather than later. The highly contentious remark recently made on this board by Scinv (sorry, a freudian slip) by Sakura that ‘Interferons don’t work’ will be put to the test once again in due course.

If P2 results are favourable, those buying in at current levels may well make similar returns to those made back in the summer of 2020. Those who haven’t will be heavily reliant on Marsden + Co. negotiating a favourable deal.

Interesting to note that another AIM pharma research company with no commercial product readily available, recently spiked from 12p to 31p in less than two days on the back of promising, but not stellar results from a mere 67 patient trial, having drifted down from over 130p two years earlier.

I would imagine much bigger gains would be made in SNG’s case, given they have a proven product/ staff/ infrastructure ready to deliver if all goes to plan.

Pharma AIM shares are akin to playing high stakes snakes and ladders, especially when trial results are due. They’re not for the faint hearted or those with limited amounts of patience, especially when you have a CEO that likes to keep you guessing.

Whatever happens, I wish you and all genuine holders of this share all the very best going forward.

Spacman 08/01 @ 22.47: - ‘That’s me done here.’

If Only.

Reposting three previous contributions, in order to add a degree of respectability and reality back to the board this evening, in what has been another largely dismal week on here.

The Paladin:

‘Whatever happened to the sensible dialogue (positive and negative opinions) previously offered on this forum? Nowadays, it is a sea of green rectangles, sadly with otherwise sensible investors responding to them.’

DocD:

‘The funds will come from elsewhere - in exchange for a large slice of the pie. How large depends on how good the P2s are. Everything rests on the quality of patient selection. If they find the right 20 or 30 in each of the trials and the margin of improvement is stellar then the company will be back in business with a drug that looks almost certain to succeed its P3 provided the same parameters and metrics are used.

Best case scenario is something that replicates SG016's 79% in the much smaller but really important cohort of the most ill. If SNG can do something significant in this cohort it still has a future.

The commercialisation case will rest on savings to health systems rather than saving lives. Clearing the most ill from ICUs sooner…. Sending patients home in 5 days rather than 7 or 9.

That's why UNIVERSAL is so important. If it helps them develop the diagnostic tools to find the right triallists.’

Ghia:

‘There is a conflict of priority that the company is having to negotiate currently.

They want to design and run the perfect trials to maximise the opportunity to show the drug in a favourable light, which makes perfect sense.

To do this amongst other sources the data from universal will be crucial. Universal timing is out of their control to a large extent which is likely uncomfortable for the management team.

Conflicting with the need to run the right trial is the need to execute a trial within a specific time frame (before further funding is required). They have longer than most people are suggesting before this happens.

The only thing I’m confident of is they will run the right trial, but that means this takes priority over the timing which has factors outside of their control. This will take time.

Wishing all genuine investors a happy weekend.

T

They go away, keep falling into the trap and they stay - Your choice.

Today at 15.46:

‘On almost every bb there is a resident clown….’

I couldn’t agree more.

It should be crystal clear to long-term members of this board that this page has been infested by the constant rhetoric of two attention seeking narcissists, one antagonistic, the other a compulsive liar.

The second tells us on a regular basis that ‘the science is bad’, whatever that means.

This second individual has previously informed us that he:

• Was a former fund manager.

• Former senior ‘business insider’.

• Former professional trader.

• Had previous experience with SPACS.

• Makes ‘an easy £500 daily’ trading this share, even though the price barely moves from one week to the next.

• Has ‘a biotech guy’ who is also an institutional investor:

(30/01: ‘My biotech guy is an ii. Working at a specialised biotech firm with a good trackrecord.’)

• Has a business partner with access to 5 – 10 million to invest in SNG, even though in his words ‘the science is bad’.

(12/02: ‘And that is exactly why i have offered the company a solution as well (5-10mln)’)

• Would attend the last AGM if he could spare the time during a drinking weekend in London with his friends.

You would imagine that a man with such a background would now be a multi-millionaire and would spend his time anywhere but on a British penny share chat room.

You would also expect an individual from such an elevated position not to use foul and abusive language on three separate occasions towards fellow board members.

You would also think that a man with such an impressive track record would be able to string a sentence together in English, even though he claims to be from the Netherlands.

To coin a phrase from DocD, he ‘can barely write his own name in the sand with a stick’.

Here’s a selection of his latest offerings:

‘They promissed more communicstion at the AGM…’

‘I am not a legal expert myself but my lawyer has told me will be difficult they knew science.’

‘It should be easy to come up a P2. Unless we need all the bells and wissels because the science is not great’.

Definitely from the Netherlands, as his first language is clearly double dutch.

The latest from a string of misleading posts include:

06/02: ‘Fact: science not good enough’.

06/02: ‘Fact: TFG are in control. If they want out they can give me a call.’

£500 a day from trading – Seriously? I suspect the only thing this guy trades are pokemon cards.

This board reached a new low during the dark winter months when on 20/12 both narcissists attempted (and failed) at sensible dialogue with each other, causing the smart but rarely heard poster ‘Brysoa’ to comment:

‘11 filtered posts out of a possible 12 today so far. Is this a record?’

Yes Brysoa, I think it was.

Aether: ‘They don’t care what attention you give them as long as it is attention.’

Stop conversing with them and

Fruits - Succinct and to the point, I suspect you’re far from alone with that view….

Explains why last Tuesday’s most popular post of the day from ‘Meltonboy’ was:

‘Change the bloody record….’

January – We need an EGM.

February (8th) - ‘I think we will be fine even if we slip into H2’.

March – We need an EGM again.

Any detail on who will/ how to arrange such a meeting? – Don’t be silly.

What causes such swings in an individual’s thought process? Maybe the moon has now entered a different phase or the wind changed direction.... Or maybe they just post any old dross every day to draw attention.

£150k - Stop whining, that's peanuts - The investor formally known as Macosta, who now likes to be referred to as Mr 'working at haste' Costs has half a million shares - Think about how much he's lost.

Meanwhile on planet earth...

Marsden c'mon, you could put a stop to all this on our behalf....Care to say a few words?

Tomorrow at 7am would be a good time, remember 'we're very close to an RNS'.