Member Info for Trickymatters

The BRH test hasn't been evaluated. They RNSed on 24th December to say they don't know if the test will work and they can't explain recent sp rise. Sounds very worrying.

Trying to make investors anxious because they know that news on the tech transfer for Mologic is about to drop and contract schedules for antibody tests aren't too far away.

Teabiscuit, if you wait to buy in until we get orders for up to £285,000,000 worth of antibody test contracts, then you will pay twice as much for your shares. Or you do your research and take a mitigated risk on firms that you think will do well.
That's how you make money on your investments.
We all know that the sp won't reach it's full potential until we get orders. But we will get some movement as progress is clearly established.
Most of us understand this already.

I think so. Probably why Polar Capital have upped their investment. Should get a good leg up from here when the news lands.

As 'an absolutely vital part of our fight against this virus'.

Bye Trilla who missed out when he sold before the rise and is aware he may have sold too early again?! Thx for sharing your alternative fantasy when the sp falls when you sell and rises when you buy back! I am trying to stop laughing but my feet are in the air! Hilarious mate! Good one!

Over 1 million people have cv19 now according to the ONS. Discussion on mutations was interesting for ODX investors. The UK variant can delete some of the gene sequencing and the SA variant changes the shape of the spike proteins on the virus.
The vaccines should work because we produce multiple antibodies so the virus should be effective. So, I guess, should the ABC19 and Visitect antibody tests- they target the MNRA spike and several antibodies respectively.
PM says more details coming on Thursday on progress (and plans). Whitty: Keeping an open mind about managing this in the future. It won't disappear.
Why is it taking so long to introduce tests for travelling as other countries do? Pm: We will be testing people coming into the country.
Whitty: From a clinical perspective we know who the most vulnerable people are. We are some way from planning for everyone else.
So testing to track the transmission rate. Testing to monitor the vaccine efficacy- the RTC say this will be the ABC19 test. Testing to ensure that the delay with the Pfizer vaccine is working as expected (not been evaluated before). Testing to open up society as we come out of lockdown in the Spring whilst 75% of the UK are still to be vaccinated.

The Good Law Project judicial review was scheduled for January 13th according to the Good Law Project's site last year. That commitment is no longer on the site. They haven't made the £100k they needed to fund it. Still the same £39k they had raised when they launched the appeal. Looking like it won't happen. If it does it will end up being good publicity for us. The government will be forced to reveal their hand and explain their plan for antibody tests. But I can't see it happening now.

The Telegraph piece is a bit hilarious. Johnson has just made it clear it will be the end of April before over 70s and extremely vulnerable groups are vaccinated. Looks like they are aiming for about 6 million a month going forward. So it will take a year to get to about 55% of the UK population (since we need 2 jabs each), less than the required 70% for herd immunity.
And that's based on Johnson's aspirations with all things being equal and the 'wind in our sails'. And no accounting for other nasty surprises.

We will get some benefit from FTSE displacement. We are still part of the cavalry. As soon as we get confirmation that vaccines will work and some lfts which target 1. More of the spike protein (Visitect antibody test targets all 3 elements) and 2. Sufficient antibodies to indicate immunity (ABC19) we will get lift off.
They are assessing this actively but the scientific consensus atm seems to be 'very likely ' but can't be absolutely certain. Watching the news now. Just had an epidiemiologist on. At least the journalists are getting straight to the nub of it.
Jury is definitely out on some PCR tests for the new variant. We could end up being more relevant than PCR tests at this point. Highest ever new cases just announced - over 58000.
Trump's latest disgrace is coming up now and I can't even listen to his Mafioso posturing for another second so over and out for me. Going shopping. GLA. And Happy New Year?!

Happy New Year Bushmaster, yep. Agree. I think it's overwhelming them. But in fairness, it's overwhelming everyone. Germany are extending their lockdown now...it will go on and on. Saw Matt Han**** on BBC news on about the SA mutation not the Daily Fail.
I suppose from an investment perspective I am trying to look forward and guess at options they could have. I think there's always a period of panic when circumstances get frightening. Then hopefully, it'll be time for the logic models to come out.

Who reckons we will follow tomorrow? FTSE will drop again as soon as we do.
Government are now 'very worried ' about whether the South African variant can evade the vaccine. Yikes!
I expect they are assessing whether the new lft tests can detect the South African variant too. Fundamentally depressing stuff but I suspect we are in the right place at the right time as far as our investment goes. Not sure how we are supposed to get back on our feet if we don't start using intelligence from test and trace more confidently. People who have recovered from cv19 are going to have good levels of immunity which can easily be established with an antibody test. Full lockdowns are wasting capacity of millions of people.

Any day. I am surprised to see Fourfigures getting so frustrated. We had an RNS on 24th December and we'll have an update again on this very soon. In the meantime there are 2 contracts on bid stats for £100 million for antibody tests. The FT says the government are committed to spending £42 billion on test and trace. Less than a third of that has been spent to date. Contracts are now often much more longterm. Plenty more to come. We all thought mass testing would get going sooner than it did. Not the fault of ODX. They won't be sitting on their laurels. They will be getting ready for lift off.

Wishing everyone invested here a fabulous 2021. It's going to be better than 2020 that's for sure. Mass testing finally taking off. The government are committed to ensuring a confident and capable diagnostics industry. We are in the right place at the right time. Good luck everyone.

And we are having a 3 month delay between doses. So I expect this will mean more pressure on tracking the vaccine.

But Pfizer haven't named anyone. If AZ do confirm the RTC big investors are going to be piling into ODX as fast as you can blink! If/when that happens all of Zengah's dreams are coming true. Moderna took 3 days to name Roche.

Once the RTC get the first contract for £85 million the FDA will approve the ABC19 test. The US are a bit less cautious about personal responsibility for health care. You can already buy a test for an outrageous price of £65.00. Of course people will buy a test for £16.00 if it's available. People buy a packet of cigarettes for £11.50 ffs.
75% of the company are going into tier 4 today.

It has literally got our name on it. Another contract for antibody tests has been published for £100 million. We are the only lateral flow antibody test that is already ready and is on the cusp of MHRA approval. That will probably go to the RTC too. £185 million for the RTC. ODX will make at least 25% according to the agreement with the government. All in the public domain from RNS' and bid stats information.
Mologic's antigen test has accuracy which far exceeds the Innova test in widespread use with multi million pound contracts paid already. More information on tech transfer to come next week from ODX as confirmed in the RNS dated 24th December. A DHSC contract valued at £912 million for lateral flow antigen tests with a deadline for 15th December. Submissions do not require a finished product. It requires a product progressing through evaluation. The epidemic has gained on us with infection spreading 70% faster than before. School children and university students are already being tested en mass. It will take 6 months to vaccinate 25 million people if we manage to ramp up to 2 million a week. We don't have that capacity yet and we are behind schedule to date having vaccinated 800,000 in 3 weeks so far. SAGE are downplaying the idea that we can vaccinate all adults before the end of 2021.
As we progress with vaccination we will use mass testing to get back on our feet.
ODX will be a cash rich diagnostics company with a virus mutating. They can manufacture for anyone. This is the place to be invested in 2021.
GLA.

Sensetalka, yeah scientists are saying the front end roll out will be backed up by an increase in high level surveillance to check for efficacy. This is about supporting a clear understanding about what 90% efficacy means. Which groups are most likely to remain vulnerable if any? Are we still spreading it after we have protection? How long does immunity last? The last question will need longterm assessment worldwide.
I think your assessment of up to 10% initially and then longer term tracking for years is how it will play out.
3 tests per person is not going to happen. However, here on planet earth ODX will sell everything they make before they have made it. 115 million tests a year. Good enough for me. GLA.

Government won't let the RTC sell to anyone else until AstraZeneca have advised them how many antibody tests they want to check efficacy of the vaccine and to continue tracking for reassurance over an accumulating evidence base on immunity.
This is about the public confidence not just the scientific confidence.
I think they will err on the side of caution and go larger than they need to. Ten million for the UK. Would save them having to go to the bother of issuing different contracts than the ones they have drawn up already with the RTC'S name on it!
Astra Zeneca will want some kind of arrangement for worldwide distribution. Then the pricing policy will be better because the UK government have subsidised the UK purchase effectively.
I am guessing a worldwide market for hundreds of millions for this test. Most of which will make ODX about £3.00 a test.
Our market cap is doubling from here once this starts to play out. That's why the volumes are over 5 million even in this traditionally slow Xmas trading period.