Member Info for TrickyDicky2

Not the biggest of markets but an interesting trend nonetheless.

EVs and PHEVs for the month - 7,348
EVs and PHEVs for 2020 - 32,482

The interesting thing here is EVs and PHEVs took 16% of the overall car market in 2020 but 32.3% of the market in December. The December % looks set to carry into 2021. FYI the market for new cars per year in Denmark is between 225k and 250k.

TDT

Or it could be a defensive move. They might be bringing him on board now to shore up defences in the event of a hostile bid.

TDT

Double ooops.

TDT

Ooops.

Thanks for the swift correction wasarunner.

TDT

A pure nickel play on AIM with a 2.5m tonne reserve/resource, MC of £110m, NPV of $2.9B, on the verge of announcing funding in what is currently the hottest sector in the market at the start of another commodities super cycle (except this time its going to be 3 times bigger than the last one).

" ... could it be leaky....."

No, I don't think this is a leak. I think an awful lot of people are going to be looking for exposure to anything/everything related to EVs, the greening of the world economy and infrastructure spending. I think this is just people waking up to the huge potential this company has.

TDT

wasarunner

The Horizonte NPV calculator for Araguaia phase 1 is US$824m at nickel price $17,500/tonne. A MC at 20% on NPV Araguaia phase 1, $165m, is more or less where we are at the moment. We have 1.449B shares in issue which, at 7.65p per share, gives a MC of £110m or $152m ay £1/$1.37. It seems we are at 20% but as you rightly point out nothing has been factored in for Vermelho or for Araguaia phase 2.

TDT

All you have to do is look at how far down the development path companies like Adriatic Mining and Arizona Mining are with their 54% and 50% (respectively) MC to NPV to get some idea of just how under valued Horizonte is (sitting, currently, at 5% MC to NPV).

Trading at 20% to 25% of NAV would be nice, 50% would be better. Is that doable this year? According to the Emmerson presentation all you need to gwt to 20%-25% is:-

Junior resources companies can be expected to trade around 20-25% of NAV if
• The project economics are top quality
• The capex is much lower than the NAV
• The management team is credible
• Strong shareholders join the register

Horizonte has all of that in spades plus its focued on a metal where demand is expected to rocket. Then there's the small matter of a commodities super cycle in progress. If you didn't pick up on Troajan's post at 13.39 hrs. yesterday its well worth a listen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7JMamcXZfw

IMO 20% to 25% is the least to expect once funding is nailed.

TDT

Sorry, that should be...

"The copper adds a significant amount to the bottom line but I WOULDN'T get too fixated......"

cossy

My calculation is the bluntest of instruments. It takes into account no project specific factors, its merely a rough guide Wendy Durham suggested you could use to get to rough figure without all the hard work, knowledge and effort that goes into RLs calculations.

The copper adds a significant amount to the bottom line but I would get too fixated on the detail using the method I've suggested. At best its +/- 25%. Having said that its a calculation that's been remarkably accurate on other investments and wildly inaccurate on others.

Most of RLs posts come with the caveat "subject to" and most of the "subject to" issues are holes in RY's presentations. As JPK suggests, the TEO should, hopefully, clear up a lot of the unknowns. Once we have a clearer picture, if that day ever dawns, we'll be, or at least RL will be, in a better position to clarify where this all might go.

TDT

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/02/france-hits-record-19-2-ev-share-in-december-up-almost-6x-year-on-year/

Impressive.

TDT

cosy

"......you can judge for yourself whether TDT's figure is reasonable or not."

It's more than likely not reasonable but it's the best I can do. The figure quoted is arrived at by multiplying the resource in the ground by the current price then dividing by 20. That's a very blunt way of doing it and it doesn't take into account the specifics of a project but its a method that Wendy Durham used to use (sasa43 uses the same method) and in the absence of both the time and, more accurately, the ability to do anything more detailed that's the best I can come up with.

In short go with RL's calculations.

TDT

On a nickel equivalent of 1,581,600 tonnes and nickel price of $17,500/tonne you're probably looking at somewhere in the region of $1.4B for NPV.

TDT

"Last year taught us that sweeping forecasts are pretty much a waste of time. Amid a raging virus, a global recession and a rapid markets turnaround, no one could have guessed that a record $120 trillion of stock would change hands on U.S. exchanges in 2020, that Tesla short-sellers would get burned so badly, or that Bitcoin would be such a huge hit with Wall Street. It’s hard to say which trends will continue into 2021. The forecasts to watch are those that only look one or two months ahead, or 10 to 20 years ahead, Jared Dillian writes in Bloomberg Opinion. As for all the prognostications in between—better to ignore them."

Wise words.

TDT

Dalem2uk

“They are following in the footsteps of iron ore miners in the Northern Territory that have brought idled operations back to life in recent months. Nathan River Resources, a subsidiary of UK company British Marine Group, has reawakened the Roper Bar mine which is processing two to three shipments each month.“

And.

“ Barring some unforeseen market event, prices for the sought-after reddish ore look well-supported for years to come given its stretched supply.”

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/iron-ore-in-2021-is-looking-like-iron-ore-in-2020/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekend-12-26-2020&utm_content=httpsstockheadcomauresourcesironorein2021islookinglikeironorein2020&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekend%20email%20-%20Sunday%20December%2027&utm_content=Weekend%20email%20-%20Sunday%20December%2027+CID_f68a07d7a7b19f182ed45ac9e4a48376&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Read%20More

It doesn't look like we are going to get updates on NRR from Amur so I guess we are just going to have to pick up what's going on/what might be going on from where we can.

TDT

RL

Gabbro - 2.8t/m3
Gneiss - 2.7t/m3
Granite - 2.7t/m3

It looks like 3.0t/m3 is a reasonable figure if not a bit over.

If the over burden does turn out to be substantially granite I would have thought it possible to have the pit walls steeper than 45 degrees.

TDT

RL

On the issue of the mine waste and the 3.0t/m3 quoted by SRK it seems to me that they must be erring on the high side with a 3.0t/m3 figure given specific gravities of various materials. Basalt, for example, is 2.9t/m3 and basalt is highly likely to be some of the overburden at Kun Manie given the nature of the deposit itself. Other likely candidates, however, are not as dense. Clay for example is 2.2t/m3. Slate 2.5t/m3, shale 2.6t/m3, sandstone 2.7t/m3. Nickel ore, according to:-

https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/minerals-specific-gravity-d_1644.html

is 3.3t/m3.

If the average density of the over burden is 2.5t/m3 instead of 3.0t/m3 that’s a reduction in cost of $485m. That moves the dial significantly.

I’ve looked at various studies and RNSs but can’t establish what the composition of the overburden might be. I don’t know if that information is out there but if it is and anybody has come across it, perhaps they could posit I here.

TDT

Ooops, fat finger syndrome. Ignore that last post.

Vermelho is the dark horse.

Teck Resources the buyer waiting in the wings biding their time. They’re going to make a move at some point. It’s just a matter of when and how much. As long as they’re made to pay dearly for their acquisition.

TDT

Vermelho is the dark horse.

Teck Resources the buyer waiting in the wings binding their time.

Excellent post.

TDT

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4396802-nickel-monthly-news-for-month-of-december-2020?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=matt-bohlsen-nickel-monthly-news-for-the-month-of-december-2020&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-1

TDT