Member Info for TrickyDicky2

AT

You might find it helpful if you go through Amur's web site, esepcially this part.

https://amurminerals.com/kun-manie-project-background/

TDT

I can't see anything here that we don't already know.

https://nedradv.ru/nedradv/invetsp?obj=c5bfec301d9737167c9489604b0d1ff7#about

This web site seems to be just as far behind the curve as we are with the project development history going no further than the end of 2017.

TDT

The link you posted to the article, second page, last paragraph bottom right hand side states:-

"The total mineral resources of the deposit Denia Kun-Manye as of 2017 estimated in the amount of 101.3 million tons of ore, 770 thousand tons nickel, 207 thousand tons of copper, 15.2 thousand tons of cobalt, 16.7 tons of platinum and 18.1 tons of palladium diya [11; 12]."

Admittedly that's Google translate and you may come up with something else but that's the page you reference.

TDT

AT

The article you posted gives 2017 estimates for gross in place metal. Once you factor in recovery rates for the in place totals you end up netting significantly less than the gross in ground figure. I don't think this is anything earth shattering.

What is earth shattering is the extended radio silence.

TDT

Vik33

Is the other side of that equation those who spread BS?

TDT

This gives you some idea of just how badly wrong the experts can be.

https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

"Passenger EV sales jumped from 450,000 in 2015 to 2.1 million in 2019. They will drop in 2020 before continuing to rise as battery prices fall, energy density improves, more charging infrastructure is built, and sales spread to new markets."

They predicted 1.7m back in H1 2020 and they're still saying 1.7m despite the fact that it looks like the total will be 3.1m+. Makes you wonder just how far out they are on their 8.5m for 2025 and BNEF are supposed to be one of the outfits with their finger on the pulse.

TDT

......confetti issued on the promise, yet again, of jam tomorrow.

Nothing ever changes here.

TDT

Hallowed.

Quite simply really. This might help you.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/r209dy3n0df6yhq/Mine%20Development%20Cycle%20copy.png?dl=0

TDT

Hi Dogberry101

What Parry-Jones was pointing out is the mining of the required metals is nowhere near as energy intensive as the production of the batteries themselves. I'm not so sure he's actually on that money with his comment anyway. My understanding, from Tesla's battery day, is the substitution of the wet slurry used in the manufacture of the cathode for a dry process saves a significant amount of factory space, processing time and energy.

There's so much going on in this sector at the moment and its all moving so fast that its difficult to keep on top of developments. That's the issue for us just as much as it is for somebody like Parry-Jones.

TDT

Hallowed

If you don’t know how the junior mining exploration sector works by now far be it from me to explain it to you.

TDT

"Says it all really."

No it doesn't. All it says is Amur has raised capital like every other junior explorer.

300% is not 1,000% and the curcial part of the story you're neglect to mention is Abramovich sold all the new shares at a 50% discount to himself further increasing the dilution. On top of that Abramovich had a functioning business with a revenue stream at the time he diluted existing shareholders. So not the same really, is it?

TDT

Interesting article.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/richard-parry-jones-cost-parity-between-evs-and-ice-cars-will-be-“about-2026”

Especially this bit.

"Parry-Jones also insists that the problem of ’embedded CO2’ in the production of EVs - usually greater than an equivalent ICE car - is “not really something you can technically influence”.

“It’s bound to the chemistry of the cells we're using; they're hungry for energy in terms of manufacturing. Most of it is in the cell production phase, not in the raw materials. So getting lithium and other materials isn't a major contributor."

Careful what you wish for.

Qui cum canibus concumbunt cum pulicibus surgent.

TDT

"According to his unauthorised biography, the wealth of Roman Abramovich increased dramatically with the acquisition of Sibneft, in what came to be termed the “loans for shares” scheme. He may have been somewhat wealthy before this but these transactions seem to have catapulted his fortunes."

"The Russian government was short of cash in 1995 and Russian banker Vladimir Potanin (not Putin) proposed “loans for shares” as a solution to the liquidity problem:-

“He proposed that a group of would-be oligarchs give the government a loan in return for the right to buy shares in state industries. In addition, the government would put up its remaining controlling interests in the enterprises involved as collateral for the loan and transfer the right to manage that stake to the lender. As the chances of the government ever repaying the loans was remote at best, the long-term effect of this arrange­ment was to hand over the commanding heights of the econ­omy to a handful of speculators at a bargain-basement price. As a result, Abramovich was able to acquire shares at a fraction of their market (or underlying) value."

“The result of all this chicanery was that Berezovsky and Abramovich and their partners acquired a company for less than. $200 million that by the end of 2003 was valued at $15 billion, seventy-five times as much. As William Browder, the American chief executive officer of Moscow-based Hermitage Capital Management, puts it: 'In this particular game of Monopoly, Abramovich landed on Broadwalk and managed to buy it."

"Their ownership was increased subsequently by diluting other shareholders by issuing additional shares in the company equivalent to more than 1,000% of the existing shares and purchasing them all, without offering them to all shareholders. These shares were purchased at approximately 50% of their market value (and the market value was significantly below the underlying value, because of transfer pricing)."

I see the January presentation has been amended once again. The most significant correction is to the number of shares held by Hargreaves Lansdown. The amended, and hopefully correct, figure is now 237,341,489 or 16.38%.

They've also amended the Interactive Investor, HSDL, AJ Bell and Barclays Smart Investor totals. The changes are relatively minor from a couple of millions to a couple of thousand. The figures in the presentation are correct as of 31st. December 2020.

The important thing, I suppose, is Teck, Glencore and Canaccord still hold the same.

TDT

"'While the overall automotive market is still in red (-4% YoY), in December, Europe's passenger plugin market had an historic month, having registered a record 281,000 registrations (+264% YoY!), adding an amazing 115,000 units to the previous record, set in the previous month."

"This impressive result shooted December's plugin share to 23% share (14% BEV), helping the 2020 numbers to rise 142% over those of the previous year, to well over 1 million units, and pulling the market into the...Disruption Zone, as the 2020 PEV share ended at 11% share (6.2% for BEVs alone), a significant departure from the 3.6% of 2019 (2.2% BEVs)............

...Expect 2021 to continue the disruptive trend, so i expect 15%-plus 20% market share by the end of the year."

TDT

Hi Hazbeen

I don’t think anybody has forgotten what we’re waiting on but I do think the EV story is what’s driving the price of nickel at the moment. Take Tesla for example, what makes Tesla worth more than VW, Toyota, Ford and GM combined? Have they sold more vehicles? Are they making a bigger profit? Tesla is at the level they’re at because of their potential not because of their sales volume or profit margin. Some might call it irrational exuberance other that it’s simply the market forward pricing the potential.

Are we seeing the same with the price of nickel? I think we are. The metal will be in surplus this year. There was a surplus last year as well. In fact its expected the market will not be in deficit until the middle of the decade at the earliest yet the price of the metal is going up. Is it demand from the stainless sector that’s driving the price of nickel? I don’t think so.

I’m not devaluing in any way Araguaia and the impact it will have on Horizonte and our share price once funding has been nailed. On the contrary I think it will shift the share price significantly. Once Araguaia is set on the path to production, however, it makes the potential at Vermelho all the more real. What I see happening post Araguaia funding approval is the market starting to price Vermelho’s potential. Vermelho is a part of the EV story, or hype if you prefer, as is Horizonte.

That’s simply my opinion and the reason why my focus is mostly on EV’s.

TDT

Hazbeen

"Too much focus on EV space......"

You might want to tell Horizonte management that then and get them to remove the EV from the Home page of their web site.

TDT

I didn’t mean anything. I merely copied a section from the December NRR news letter.

I presume they mean January 2021.

TF2

Hazbeen

I presume you are familiar with Wright's Law?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/bqm3s967imzgg6t/Wright%E2%80%99s%20Law%20Predicted%20109%20Years%20of%20Autos%20Gross%20Margin%2C%20and%20Now%20Tesla%E2%80%99s%20copy.pdf?dl=0

I think we still have quite some way to go before cost savings start to flatten out. Tesla, for example has only really started. They produced a fraction under 500k EVs in 2020. Doubling to 1m then 2m then 4m then 8m may take a few years but the doubling brings with it a consistent reduction in unit costs. Production of a $50,000 Model3 will fall to $30,000 as a result of a cumulative production increase over the intervening years up to say 8m. That's merely as a result of cumulative production. It doesn't take into account innovation in production along the way.

We're very much at the start of all of this. The "Maturity of Auto Technology" graph on page 5 of the above link says it all IMO.

TDT

Hazbeen

I haven’t seen that, I don’t think. It’s such a fast moving story the whole EV thing it’s difficult keeping up.

Thanks for posting.

TDT