Member Info for TrickyDicky2

pickedpeck

What I found interesting with EV battery costs was the rate of decline in the cost of producing them over the years. Like the adoption rate of EVs the fall in the cost of batteries varies from year to year. For example:-

2010 – $1,160/kWh
2011 – $899/kWh
2012 – $707/kWh
2013 – $650/kWh
2014 – $577/kWh
2015 – $373/kWh
2016 – $288/kWh
2017 – $214/kWh
2018 - $176/kWh

The above is the actual reduction on costs per kWh from 2010 to 2018. The reduction in cost from year to year, as you can see, is very uneven. From 2014 to 2015 there was a very significant cost saving from 2012 to 2013 no so much. The point is if you take the 2010 cost and work out the average cost reduction per year to 2018 is works out to be exactly 21%. An average on what’s gone before can sometime give you a reasonably good pointer as to what might happen in the future.

In the case of battery costs everything started to slow down after 2018. If the average 21% reduction had continued after 2018 we would be on $110/kWh in 2020 and not the $137/kWh we actually do have (although some companies, Tesla in particular, are thought to be down below the $110/kWh level).

The point I tried to make in my post yesterday is the average growth rate in EV adoption since 2014, 48%, if it were to continue as the average CAGR up to 2025 we would see an uptake of EVs of somewhere in the region of 22m by that date. I’m not predicting a linear adoption but an exponential one. It may well have a bit of unevenness along the way, but it certainly won’t be linear.

Norway is an aberration. It can afford to indulge itself and, from the wealth its accumulated from pumping vast amounts of oil, make out like it’s the conscience of the world. I don’t see too many other countries being in a position to afford the same.

Class 1 nickel supply may limit the speed of EV adoption. LFP batteries may step in to help fill the void (if there is one). The only thing that’s reasonably certain is there’s going to be a supply side problem at some point in the future. When is the big unknown.

TDT

wasarunner

I think it's interesting to look at the number of EVs bought worldwide over the years and the changes from year to year to try and figure out where things might go in the future. For example since 2014:-

2014 to 2015 +72%
2015 to 2016 +41%
2016 to 2017 +58%
2017 to 2018 +65%
2018 to 2019 +9.5%
2019 to 2020 +42% (Provisional)

That's an average increase of 48% a year. If that average continues going forward based on 3.1m for the year 2020 that would result in 22m EVs being sold in 2025. In fact we would be looking at:-

2020 - 3.1m
2021 - 4.588m
2022 - 6.79m
2023 - 10.05m
2024 - 14.87m
2025 - 22m

Assuming an average of 60kg of nickel per EV that's

2020 - 186,000 tonnes
2021 - 375,280 tonnes
2022 - 407,400 tonnes
2023 - 603,000 tonnes
2024 - 892,200 tonnes
2025 - 1,320,000 tonnes

If only it were that simple!!!!!!

TDT

V V

I suspect the analyst consensus nickel price forecast figures on page 5 of the presentation are correct but the years wrong. The average nickel price over the whole of 2020, despite the strong performance H2 of 2020, was $14,464/tonne or there about. If correct and its the years that are out of sync that means analysts are predicting $15,324/tonne for 2021 and not 2022 as stated. That suggests an avarge nickel price of $7/lb for the current year which is not beyond the relms of possibility.

When it comes to analysts predictions I find it helpful to look at their previous predictions going back 3/4/5 years to see how accurate they've been. The track record for all of them is poor especially on 3 year+ predictions. BNEF, for example, were predicting a 1.7m EV total for 2020 as recently as H1 2020 yet we're likely to finish the year on between 3.1m to 3.2m. We're going through difficult times right now and predicting anything with even the remotest degree of accuracy is difficult. Being out by almost 100% over a 6 to 9 month period, however, is poor even by their standards.

The old saying "experts don't predict and those who predict are not experts" springs to mind. I am, however, quietly (or sometime not so quietly) optimistic about EV up-take and nickel demand.

TDT

Hi Nthoftheriver

The comment in my post relates to somebody on here, can't remember who, questioning the long term analyst consensus price for nickel in the latest Horizonte presentation compared to current price levels. The "Sobering" headline relates to that. The presentation quotes a long term analyst consensus price of US$16,228/tonne. The current price, as you know, is hovering around the $18,000/tonne level at present. Somebody on here seemed to imply that they thought the presentation a bit pessimistic.

For the record I think it is pessimistic but I can well imagine Horizonte being happy to go with the consensus given the lowest quartile position they occupy. After all, it is better to under promise and over deliver.

I buy into Tony Seba's view of mainstream analysts. They regularly fail to predict the exponential nature of new technology adoption. A failure to accurately predict EV adoption will translate into a failure to accurately predict class 1 nickel demand.

We shall se soon enough.

TDT

Sobering.

https://www.ft.com/content/a8d8027b-7a7c-4fa1-b726-831f070facd1

Helps explain why Horizonte has some rather modest price projections for nickel in their recent presentation.

TDT

https://www.ft.com/content/66517767-e1a9-45c7-8774-e4255c6936b3

It's all out there being talked about, promoted, pushed etc. etc. etc. It surely has to be simply a matter of time before the whole thing just takes off to the stars.

TDT

https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/the-battery-raw-material-class-of-2021-prices-rise-as-ev-upturn-and-commodity-supercycle-loom/?mc_cid=298e12cf37&mc_eid=d9a5a4a0be

TDT

There's another typo. The Hargreaves Lansdown percentage total should be 14.89% and not 16.40% as stated.

TDT

Just noticed I've got the same message in my inbox from Anna.

TDT

VauxhallViva

Well done. That puts that issue to bed then although that's some typo.

TDT

wasarunner

Just seen your post. If I get a response I'll post it here on the BB straight away.

TDT

Ivornomoney

In short no. If they've sold 22m then their percentage holding should be reduced accordingly. Orion may well be the recipiant but if they are then maybe they should show that. After all Barclays Smart Investor has an amount below the reportable threshold at 2.79% but they've still included that holding in both the web site and in the latest presentation.

This is simply a typo IMO. They either need to correct the number of shares or the percentage. My money is on the percentage being incorrect. The number of shares is a specific number that hasn't, as far as I can tell, been inadvertently carried over from another column/holder or from a previous holdings total Teck had.

At least we can now see where all the shares that are consistently being dropped into the market are coming from.

IMO this merely presents a last minute buying opportunity before funding is announced and take-off.

TDT

pickedpeck

Three months since the last update, 13 weeks, 22m shares or 1.5m a week. I think they have been selling in the open market. It helps explain why the share price keeps on getting knocked back down when it gets a bit of momentum behind it. If not Teck then Hargreaves.

The interesting thing for me is Horizonte putting this information out there now knowing that its going to be picked up.

TDT

pickedpeck

I'm not so sure about that. Somebody would have had to make a real faux pa to have mistaken Tecks previous 210,207,179 holding for the 188,689,929 the new presentation says they now hold. It would be an awful lot easier for somebody to forget to amend the percentage figure.

The one thing that does have me scratching my head is where all of these shares have gone. Teck, Hargreaves and HSDL combined have reduced by over 55m shares but I can't see where they've gone. AJ Bell and Interactive Investor combined are up by over 13m so we have 42m shares that are unaccounted for. The PI nominee accounts usually soak up the shares being disposed of by the big players but in this instance that doesn't appear to have happened.

Having said all of that it may be a simple typo and Teck may still hold 210m but I doubt it.

TDT

AIM

I've sent an e-mail to Horizonte asking them to confirm if the presentation is correct since the web site and presentation both show Teck holding the same percentage, 14.5%, but different numbers of shares. I'll post the reply if I get one.

TDT

Since the last update on the web site, according to the presentation, the following changes in holdings have happened.

Teck - sold approximately 21m
Canaccord - hold the same
Glencore - hold the same
Hargreaves Lansdown - sold approximately 27m
Interactive investor - up approx. 1.8m
HSDL - sold approx. 6.5m
AJ Bell - up approx. 12m
Barclays Smart Investor - hold the same

At least we now know who is selling which help explain the regular slugs being chucked into the market.

The percentage for Teck is not correct, either that or the number of shares held is wrong since the percentage is unchanges at 14.5% from the web site figures of 30/09/2020.

I'll post a more detailed assessment later.

TDT

8adger

"..... something is being hidden....."

I think that's almost a given.

Whether its because of

"..... just incompetence!!"

or not is the issue. I personally don't think that it is but then that's just my opinion.

TDT

This time thanks to bluebudgie and Luke2. Both articles are well worth reading.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2178858-nickel-price-nearing-key-threshold-to-spur-investment

https://www.metaltechnews.com/story/2021/01/20/tech-metals/electric-mobility-metals-inflection-point/439.html

TDT

600Thieves

If Canaccord Genuity has been selling here then they should have informed the company and we should have had a TR-1. According to Horizonte's web site they hold a fraction over 10% of the issued share capital so even the smallest of disposals would require notification.

The fact that they haven't doesn't mean that they haven't been.

TDT

Thanks to yorkie1 over on the HZM BB

"6 minutes in for Nickel."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcgMy5r6T9U&feature=youtu.be