Member Info for TrickyDicky2

.....on the bid for 100,000 at the moment.

Why don't they just move it up a bit?

TDT

Unvarnish truth equals a bankrupt company.

If you despise the BOD as much as you say then you can't have any faith in them turning this around which begs the question why hang on instead of selling up and trying your luck elsewhere?

It would be nice to think that everything worked on "Boy Scout" principals but the real world isn't like that. The company is still standing and the future looks an awful lot more positive than it has for a very long time. I'd much rather spend a bit of time a mushroom than be dead and buried along with the BOD as a result of them flashing what's under their skirt to all and sundry.

There's life in the old dog yet.

TDT

...on the bid.

Time to move up.

TDT

Luke2

We know Musk is a bit of an over promise and under deliver type of guy but even if he only hits half of that figure (10m) you're looking at an additional 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes of class 1 nickel by 2030. That's just one car company and it doesn't include the demand for batteries from all other applications.

It's just a matter of time.

TDT

This is what they're aiming for.

"Tesla sold 500,000 electric vehicles in 2020, but intends to scale up production to 20 million vehicles a year before 2030. Yes, 20 million a year. The top selling automaker in the world in 2017 was Toyota, with 10.2 million sales. Will Tesla be able to reach production of 20 million vehicles a year by 2030? Who knows? But if it does, it will depend heavily on huge and fairly rapid production capacity increases at the world’s top battery production companies."

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/10/catl-putting-3-billion-into-3-new-battery-factories-lg-chem-doubling-its-china-made-battery-production/

Even if they only hit 50% of that figure (10m) by 2030 you're looking at 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes of additional class 1 nickel by 2030 from one car company for only one application (EV car batteries).

TDT

Luke2

I liked this bit in particular.

"Tesla sold 500,000 electric vehicles in 2020, but intends to scale up production to 20 million vehicles a year before 2030. Yes, 20 million a year. The top selling automaker in the world in 2017 was Toyota, with 10.2 million sales. Will Tesla be able to reach production of 20 million vehicles a year by 2030? Who knows? But if it does, it will depend heavily on huge and fairly rapid production capacity increases at the world’s top battery production companies."

TDT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgslc4NifFE

If you want to produce "clean" nickel would it be easier to upgrade your old heavily pulling existing plant or buy a green field project and start from scratch. The demand from western car companies will be for "clean" nickel. There will be a lot of pressure on Japanese and Korean car companies to follow suit. China's a different matter.

Norilsk needs to make a lot of fundamental decisions on what they do with their nickel business.

TDT

The management kept the company going during a collapse in the price of nickel and a period where funding for junior minors dried up completely.

You need to look at the bigger picture. RY could have come out and said, several years ago, we're not a goer at this nickel price and we are going to be forced into taking funding from wonga lender to keep going. He could have given us the unvarnished truth but if he had we wouldn't be having this discussion now.

TDT

ShadowLess

I didn't think you were trying to mislead. It's difficult keeping up with what's going on at Amur, Their web site doesn't help either.

TDT

"It looks like AH is still a member of AMC board....."

No he's not. Until recently he was described as President & Executive Director as a memeber of the board of directors. He's now described as President under the heading Senior Management so he's no longer a memeber of the board of directors.

TDT

JPK

"The "other shareholders" have taken the slack again."

I'm not so sure its that simple. The "other shareholders" account is usually the home for new share issues which then get punted on. Sometimes newly issued shares end up in accounts, for example, like Bank of New York, before ending up in the usual PI nominee accounts. This is the first time I've seen that reverse where the main PI nominee accounts dropped by 12m and the "other" increased by 12m. This has happened over a period when there has been no new shares issued (a rare event I know) so its a transfer from PI nominee accounts into the "other" account. That, IMO, has never happened before.

The number of shares involved is far too small for this to be significant or conclusive of anything but its worth keeping an eye on.

TDT

Hi CBS

I see you've got a bit of a mistrustful streak as well ;-)

Thanks.

TDT

It looks like Adam Habib's status has been reduced to one of Senior Management according to the web site. Is that change recent, the web site that is?

TDT

Hi OTL

That's not the issue. The issue is they published a price to move the muck per tonne not per cubic meter. They also used to present the over burden in tonnes not cubic meters. The figues, when they were published in tonnes, were an awful lot lower than they are now that they confirmed the full extent of the overburden. The suspicion at the time was they wanted to keep the figures under wraps becuase the cost of shifting the over burden was prohibitive. That's one of the things RL picked up on that, in his opinion, RY was being intentionally vague about.

The figure they've used is 3 tonnes per cubic meter which, in my opinion, is a bit on the high side. If it is overstated by 10% or so it saves somewhere in the region of $200m+ in muck moving costs. That gives you some idea of how significant an issue this is for the economics of the project and why RY might have wanted to keep it under wraps at least until now.

TDT

Figures update for any one who's interested.

The total in main nominee accounts has dropped. Only by 12m or so but it's still down for the first time in 4 years. Fatigue or Christmas presents or the pandemic the cause but that's opinion and not something Amur has confirmed ;-)

TDT

Nolosstillsell

Ok, agreed however.....

What you're really saying is until the price of nickel rises KM is not a goer and that's all that RL has been saying and what his figures show. That's the significant/ important part of all of this.

Agreed a lot of his post is interpretation and opinion but in the absence of something more firm from RY that's just about the only thing we can do. Your view on the way RY presented the overburden and the significant additional cost once that was figured out, how do you view that? Why do you think he did that? You can only work with the information they decide to release. You have to wonder at them deciding to present the overburden in terms of cubic meters rather than tonnes. What reasonable conclusion can you reach? OK so the conclusion will be opinion in the absence of confirmation from RY but as Red says "IMO RY's PFS had no chance of being financed, he's not going to tell you that....." that's an opinion but its an opinion that's based on crunching the numbers. It's also an opinion that recognises that no CEO of an AIM listed company is going to give you the unvarnished truth, especially if that truth means the project doesn't stack up.

Amur is and always has been, IMO, a company that needs either better nickel grades, better recovery rates and/or a higher nickel price (preferably all three) to be a goer. That probably helps explain all the boring posts I used to put up here about EV uptake, the nickel price and LME nickel inventories. IMO that's what it's still all about. Grades and recoveries are more or less tied down so no improvements there in the near term. Once we get to a higher nickel price that's when RY will start to release a lot of the information that I strongly suspect he needs to sit on until things improve but, as RL rightly says, "....he's not going to tell you that.....".

TDT

Flavourshaker

Try Brave as a web browser. It blocks ads and is an awful lot more enjoyable to use.

TDT

tacet

"But his ethics is questionable to say the least......"

I think you need to to mug up on the meaning of ethics. There's no ethical issue as a result of not holding shares in a company you comment on. There is, however, an ethical issue with somebody who holds shares routinely trying to suppress debate/discussion when the conclusion of that debate or discussion is not positive. Ethical or honesty, call it what you like.

Nolosstillsell

RLs post or, as you call it, opinions are arrived at after crunching the numbers. If you crunch numbers you can leave it at that or you can interpret what these numbers are telling you. That's what that last post is about. Challenge the opinions but back them up with numbers would be the way to address RLs post. Dismissing it as opinion does all of his previous work a disservice.

Nobody else on this BB produces posts with all of Amur's publicly available data and numbers that RL does. Nobody else picked up on the over burden issue that RL did, a sneaky bit of reporting by RY. That one piece of data significantly moves the dial and not in a good way either yet nobody here either saw fit to address it or, more than likely, knew how to.

Engage and ask. Don't pillory the only poster on this BB that has a decent handle on how to value this company. Not unless, of course, you're the mirror opposite of what Lucando thinks he sees in RL and are intent on painting a picture that is merely a fiction.

TDT

JPK

"RL claims to be sharing his obvious expertise for his own learning on a share he does not hold, yet chooses now when sentiment is just recovering to share his caution......."

He is posting now because Spartacus12 said this:-

"Seeing......Red lee back chewing over the cud with the crew is quite reasuring also"

Its that simply.

TDT

Lucando

Don't make the same mistake that so many inexperienced PIs make by trying to limit debate. There's room for contrary views on a BB. If you want this board to be stuffed with what essentially amounts to unquestioning yes men then fine, that's where you feel comfortable and the filter option will help you achieve that. I think most people here value honest open and unfiltered discussion. If you can't deal with that that's your problem.

You've said you see potential in Amur. Care to outline what, in your opinion, that potential is? What, in your opinion is the path to development given what we know/what you think? Try arguing the positives rather than attacking somebody who's not banging the tambourine.

You say ".... deramper and were honest about their intentions...." That's simply nonsense. You've decided something about a poster because you can't get your head around why heads here on this BB and you don't understand why he's arrived at the conclusions he has.

RL is not a dreamer. He's made his position clear but you seem to be unable to get your head around what he is saying. You'd rather people bang the drum, even though this investment might be bad, out of self interest. His interest is academic at this stage. His posts are thorough and detailed (none of which, if memory serves me correctly, you've seen fit to either challenge or comment on). You're locked into a typical PI mindset that is essentially "if you're not unreservedly and unquestioningly for us you against us (a dreamer)".

You're destined to lose an awful lot of money with that attitude.

TDT