Member Info for TrickyDicky2

It looks to me like a lot of shares are being shifted between accounts. Whether this is all happening in time to show up in the July share holder figures remains to be seen. Well know soon enough.

After the recent offer being kicked into touch by shareholders I'd expect our potential buyer to be quietly accumulating shares in Amur. An offer price amounting to, in total, 7p against a current share price of 0.8p!!! Seems like a bargain to me and the way to go for them if they are serious about acquiring KM.

TDT

And it's continuing. Down another 786 tonnes today.

Total in the LME 59,382 tonnes.

TDT

"Zumore is a seriously unpleasant character."

On the contrary. I find him to be unfailingly polite and well mannered. He makes a point without recourse to unpleasantness and avoid personal abuse.

Trying to ensure that PIs don't make the same mistakes that he has made in the past shows a generosity of spirit and a willingness to help others. That's a laudable motivation Helpful, yours on the other hand, like your puppet master, just seems to be bare, naked greed.

If AB is dealing with wriggly people at the moment Helpful then maybe you should be looking closer to home at who that might be.

Like attracts like.

TDT

The week is off to a good start with class 1 nickel stocks down by another 594 tonnes today to stand at 60,168 tonnes. I'm not sure the LME is as good or as accurate a barometer of the health of the nickel market as it used to be but in the absence of an alternative it's the best we've got.

TDT

https://stockhead.com.au/experts/barry-fitzgerald-it-looks-like-nickel-is-back-to-its-normal-bargain-buy-self/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekend-07-22-2022&utm_content=httpsstockheadcomauexpertsbarryfitzgeralditlookslikenickelisbacktoitsnormalbargainbuyself&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekend%20newsletter%20Sunday%20July%2024&utm_content=Weekend%20newsletter%20Sunday%20July%2024+CID_7f25d377c61780b62410ead1ba97bd65&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Read%20More

TDT

KimiR

Very true.

TDT

Nickel in the LME down by 2,322 tonnes this week. In recent months that would have been a calendar month's worth so things are starting to pick up.

Translate 2,322 tonnes per week into a calendar month and that's 10,216.8 tonnes per month. As of today the LME has 60,762 tonnes of class 1 nickel. Vermelho gets more attractive with each passing day.

TDT

Russia supplies approximately 7.2% of the global nickel supply but just under 20% of annual class 1 nickel supply.

TDT

.....going to the wall? It's starting to look like it. Chunky sells suggest the smart money knows something the rest of us don't.

TDT

https://nickelinstitute.org/en/blog/2021/august/hot-rocks-geothermal-and-the-role-of-nickel/

I’m not sure what they mean by 75% of 2040 demand. It can’t be 75% of all nickel produced worldwide in 2040. It might relate to Brazil only.

TDT

Nickel in the LME down to 62,364 tonnes.

TDT

Really!

TDT

"....you are still completely missing the point."

I'm not sure you made a point. If you did it's not a particularly clear, accurate or convincing one.

Nickel is different to all the other base metals because it's a relatively small market compared to the others. Added to that it will have a demand driver that none of the other metals will have. Let's see if you can follow this logic.

Demand.

Lead - 4.49m tonnes
Zinc - 12m tonnes
Aluminium - 65.3m tonnes
Copper - 25m tonnes
Nickel 2.5m tonnes

These are the figures for 2020. Copper might experience an uplift from the emerging EV market going forward but its a market 10 times larger than nickel's. The impact is unlikely to be anywhere near as great as the impact on the nickel market. What other base metal has this sort of demand driver currently playing out? There isn't one. This partly explains nickel outperforming all other base metals in recent years and this is set to accelerate.

You can see nickel outperforming all other base metals if you look and you don't even need to look particularly hard.

TDT

".....that the same pricing was happening across all metals."

The same pricing is not happening across all metals. If you look at price for the base metals going back 5 years you can see that. All you have to do is look at the charts published by Kitco to see that but if you look at the data its even clearer.

This time 5 years ago base metals in the LME were priced as shown below.

Copper - $5,956/tonne
Lead - $2,245/tonne
Zinc - $2,769/tonne
Aluminium - S1,887/tonne
Nickel - $9,595/tonne

Move forward 5 years to now.

Copper - $7,175/tonne
Lead - $2,008/tonne
Zinc - $2,969/tonne
Aluminium - $2,617/tonne
Nickel - $20,595/tonne

Nickel is the stand out metal and its only at the start of what's expected to be a significant shortages going into the latter half of this decade. No other base metal is predicted to experience the same level of pressure going forward.

TDT

Didn't Wishbone do a 1:100 share consolidation a few years ago? And since that consolidation which resulted in 28.5m shares in issue haven't they diluted since to now stand at 174m shares? Had they not done a consolidation in 2020 and had continued to issue shares they would now have 171B shares in issue at 0.0000935p per share.

TDT

"...this isn't a nickel issue...."

Yes it is. You clearly don't understanding the current nickel dynamic.

TDT

"It has often been stated on this board that AB has close to no credibility...."

I doubt his credibility is that high.

TDT

RichTheNewbie

The current sulphide to laterite split is 39% to 61%. That will widen significantly in the coming years because the amount of untapped sulphide ore deposits left to exploit are few and far between and a good many of those that are left are very low grade.

The issue, however, is not a sulphide/laterite split but a class 1/class 2 split. Class 1 nickel is produced in HPAL plants from laterite ores or more accurately the limonite component of laterite ore. Where the class 1/class 2 comes from is not really important. Its whether demand for either of the two main products falters and whether one falling impacts price but leaves demand for the other unaffected. Simple example:-

Demand for class 1 goes up because demand for EVs goes up.

Demand for Class 2 goes down because demand for stainless steel goes down.

Class 1 stocks in the LME falls due to EV demand rising.

The price of nickel falls because demand for stainless steel falls.

The fall in demand for class 2 is greater than the increase in demand for class 1 so the price of nickel falls. Given that stainless steel is a much larger market for nickel than EV batteries (at least at the moment) that scenario seems to me to be perfectly plausible.

There has been quite a lot of talk in recent years about there being a split in the market for class1 and class 2 nickel. There's certainly different pricing for the various different products; briquettes, cathode, ferro-nickel, NPI are all priced differently so simply referring to Kitco's price doesn't give you a particularly clear picture.

In short there seems to me to be a fairly simple explanation for stocks of class 1 nickel in the LME falling at the same time as the price continues to fall.

TDT

"....smacks of baseless financial trading not reflecting reality"

Not really. The link you posted to the Kitco web site highlights stock levels of class 1 nickel in the LME only. It doesn't tell you anything about stocks levels held off the exchange or anything about class 2 levels and class 2 is the dominant nickel product in the market eight now. Given the very significant expansion of class 2 production capacity, especially in Indonesia, in recent years it should come as no surprise that class 1 stock levels in the LME might fall at the same time as the price.

TDT

For once an option scheme that's not a dead give away. That makes a refreshing change.

TDT