Member Info for TrickyDicky2

gwm121

You might be interested to know that apart from a temporary glitch in April 2012 stocks of nickel in the LME haven't been as low as they are today since December 2008. During the month of December 2008 nickel averaged about US$9,800/tonne. Nickel stocks were on the increase through out 2008 so the direction of travel as opposed to the amount of nickel is the governing factor when it comes to price or at least it was back then.

2008 was an entirely different environment for nickel. Back then nearly all nickel was derived from sulphide sources. NPI and laterites werein their infancy. Its a total different picture now and in more ways than one.

TDT

gwm121

This might help explain why LME stocks are falling along with price.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2326899-class-1-ni-shortfall-complicates-nickel-supply-chain

The stock you see on the Kitco web site is class 1. The LME only holds class 1. There is no, as far as I'm aware, web site that tracks class 2 inventory anywhere. On top of that there's a considerable degree of suspicion surrounding LME stock levels in the aftermath of the recent suspension debacle and cancellation of nickel contracts by the LME.

Having said that historical nickel prices haven't always dropped when inventories have and vice-versa. This gives you a decent historical perspective.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/o9z3evdrhy99e97/Fickle%20Nickel.png?dl=0

Red is price orange inventory levels of class 1 nickel in the LME.

IMO, for what it's worth, a large class 2 nickel surplus will drag the price down no matter what LME inventories do. It's not a simple supply demand equation, there are different types/grades of nickel and different/distinct markets. Demand from the EV sector and for class 1 nickel might be on the increase but a recession will result in demand for stainless steel and therefore class 2 nickel falling.

The war in Ukraine hasn't helped matters either.

Fickle nickel.

TDT

.....guardians of what is right and proper to post on a bulletin board shouldn't have any problems with this post (although you never know).

Nickel stocks in the LME dropped by 1,250 tonnes today. That's the first 4 figure daily drop in over three months.

TDT

The last time this happened it took 3 to 4 days before rumours of a potential offer surfaced. With a bit of luck, something that's been in short supply here of late, we will see the same again. This time with a better offer on much improved terms.

TDT

Somebody was prepared to stump up $105m to buy KM, admittedly paid in installments over several years. I would have thought, measured against that figure a share price of 0.7p and a MC of £10m was cheap (and that's before you consider the recent NVP figure).

There's F all anybody can do when the State, any State, decides the nationalise or sequester assets on their territory so that's a bit of a dead issue.

TDT

Every month, since first appearing several months ago, the JIM Nominees account has increased. It's the only nominee account, bar one, to have done so over the same period. There's no guarantee that this is only one entity accumulating and if it is only one that it isn't just somebody taking a fairly large punt. I would have thought, however, in the absence of being able to persuade investors to take the recent offer, a credible back door alternative to acquiring KM would be to buy as many shares as possible especially given the current share price.

Current MC £10m. As cheap as chips at the moment.

TDT

Don't forget Who's paying for the rounds of golf?

TDT

Funky

You can check for yourself.

https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20220428-2021-annual-report.pdf

TDT

As of 31/12/2021 the was 5,715,000 options at an average price of 85p (post 1:20 consolidation) outstanding (see page 45 of the most recent annual accounts).

TDT

Updated 1st. July 2022. Not much to report other than JIM Nominees continues to increase its holding, up by 4.4m since last month. There is only one other nominee account that has consistently increased its stake over the last 5 months.

TDT

JEZZAC

I think you've misunderstood my post. The original offer meant nothing would be paid to investors on a deal being signed. Amur were proposing to use the first payment to fund the purchase of another project, a necessary step since once KM was sold a de-list within 6 months would result without a replacement project.

An arrangement that means nothing gets paid to PI's on signing of the deal is akin to not being kissed. I strongly suspect a payment of some description at the point of signing would have appealed to many. It would have made any arrangement for subsequent payments more palatable knowing that the first was in the bag. Whoever throught this deal up needs to do a course in basic psychology.

TDT

A deal where they get nothing at the outset was never going to fly.

Probably not but I'm sure you're familiar with the old saying "if I'm going to be f ucked I want to be kissed first". Something on conclusion of a deal as opposed to nothing, which is what was on the table, might get a more favourable response.

TDT

The old jam tomorrow ploy doesn't seem to work here any more. Wonder why.

TDT

Slurms

As luck would have it 384 tonnes on Class 1 nickel went into the LME today.

TDT

Slurms

I wouldn't hang your hat on what a bank predicts. Their record on predicting is far from impressive.

Draw down from the LME is picking up and the Baltic Dry Index still appears to be in an up channel. Increasing demand for the metal itself and increasing rates to transport the goods the matel goes into. These are better indicators than a bank. After all talking your own book doesn't just apply to those who might hold shares in a particular company.

TDT

Another jam tomorrow project.

TDT

Garf

2. What did the independent assessor use for valuing the company? TEO or optimised position?
3. What was the recent offer based upon. TEO or the financial optimised position?

I think we can reasonably guess what the answer is to these two questions.

A cut off grade of 0.2% and a two lane road to deal with the significant amount of additional material moves the dial for Amur significantly. Not a lot they can do about that if that’s what the RF wants.

TDT

Draw down of class 1 nickel from the LME is still relatively modest although there does appear to be a bit of a pick up these past two days. How important that is to Horizonte right now is a moot point but at least inventories are not rising. Uncertain times ahead.

TDT

If you are referring to the two 2.5m trades 9 seconds apart with a £20 difference I'd ignore trades like these. Nothing more than a roll over or more accurately roll forward. I think this might help explain what trades like these are.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rollforward.asp

TDT

ProphetWarning

Trades on the TSX don't appear to suggest that. The 15.8m dump wasn't done in several of trades but a load of trades.

Problem is we've had this sort of thing with Pure before. I guess what's actually going on will all come out eventually.

TDT