Member Info for TrekMadone

Ghia (20:26)
“Trek - Think we are on the same page here.
I can see the drug being used Pre-emptively as a stand-alone.......”

Absolutely we are. You clearly are mindful of the upregulation issues and the need to ‘move’ treatment earlier in cycle. Now Therein lies one of my major concerns. Given the change in trajectory and timing of the RNS’s did they realise that they needed to be earlier on in the Covid cycle to gather data. Yes it’s double blind, but that’s to users not gatherers.... re read this RNS without the rose tinted on...

“
Southampton, UK – 30 April 2020: Synairgen plc (LSE: SNG), the respiratory drug discovery and development company, announces that it has received approvals to extend the SG016 trial to patients with SARS-CoV-2 in the home environment. The objective is to initiate dosing with SNG001 (or placebo) earlier in the infection cycle, and before severe lower respiratory tract symptoms have developed.In due course, details of the design, implementation and timing of this novel study will be disclosed more fully.
The treatment of patients in the hospital setting in the SG016 study is progressing well, with more than 75 patients out of the target 100 now dosed with Synairgen’s wholly- owned drug SNG001 or placebo. Results from this part of the study are still expected in June 2020.”

You see it explains the sp action. It’s waiting for news. WTF is the next steps, have you changed course, is sng001 so limited that it’s almost useless. You get the gist. Now the BoD made a change, albeit within the descriptor but mid stream. Question is why. My thought is it wasn’t looking so good, never ever underestimate a placebo, others say it’s looking really good so expand the scope.

We don’t know, but my ‘bad news’ is potentially good news coz they are ‘controlling’ I mean steering the data and have thought on their feet and may actually arrive by default at the best use for SNG001. Well that’s why in spite of my concerns I am still invested, but tbh I did reduce, then added and reduced again before adding at 52p. Why. Because this is an amazing trading channel.

It is not often that you can trade a Co that you don’t mind holding. So as I posted before, I have been buying at 53 selling at 60 on an auto trade with the same pot. My main investment though is tucked away at 30p. I guess that explains some of the sp action. Fking traders eh! GL!

Trek

Goose,

“My only concern with the price being subdued is it makes it easier for a big player to scoop us up at bargain basement prices.
The plus side is the integrity of the company is second to none so rather than a massive PR storm pushing prices on maybes, our company is doing things by the numbers,which I'd imagine brings the utmost respect from the science .........”

Rhetorically speaking I have a list of concerns, many I have posted previously and for me the BoD are just ok. I actually think had they been a little more streetwise they could have hooked AZN in earlier. It’s often the case with small caps that they think they can solve world hunger and the big boys will come running. A poor analogy and language but you get the gist. And as posted earlier a quick addendum to the AoA could introduce a poison pill to protect them from a low ball, like e.g doubling share holdings on a bid, there are others.....streetwise.

However, I do agree with you re data. Data rules ok! And it’s the data that will be the deciding factor and what they lack in business acumen they certainly make up for in knowing the importance of water tight data and how not to fk it up by setting unrealistic end points or objectives. You’d be amazed at how many folk under pressure set themselves up for a fall before they start. The respect for data and attention to its detail is smart enough to forgive my other concerns. Usual caveats...

Trek

robortsmith (1900),

It’s not about being good it’s about reaching the primary end points. This is why imo the trial patients have been carefully ‘screened’ to catch covid19early in cycle to avoid Known ACE2 upregulation issues with IFNb. It’s also why home trials are now an obvious and potentially very lucrative extension to the trial...

These are the objectives at a very high level. You can look up the trial references for more info... “worsening, safety, effectiveness....”

“Summary:

SNG001 is an inhaled form (one that is breathed in through the nose) of interferon beta-1a (a drug used to treat multiple sclerosis). It contains a protein (interferon beta) which is made in the lungs during viral lung infections and which stops the growth of viruses. It has already been tested by a company called Synairgen in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (a type of lung disease causing long-term breathing problems). The purpose of this study is to confirm that SNG001 can prevent or reduce the worsening of lower respiratory tract illness (infection of the lungs) in patients with the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes COVID-19). The drug's safety and effectiveness will both be assessed. The study will include patients with COVID-19 infection who are at high risk (e.g. elderly or diabetics) whether in hospital or not. They will receive either SNG001 or placebo (treatment with no active ingredient) inhaled once daily for 14 days. Their general medical condition, levels of breathlessness, cough and sputum (mucus from the lungs) will be recorded every day, along with any safety information.

Description:

The purpose of this study is to confirm that SNG001 can prevent/limit the worsening of LRT illness in the context of SARS-CoV-2. Safety and efficacy will be assessed.”

https://www.nihr.ac.uk/covid-studies/study-detail.htm?entryId=281317

Trek

Never a waste of time my friend, I could be wrong. I just like to share research, my techniques and hopefully save a few PI’s from losses or even make us all money because from my experience grounded people that get make a few bob go on to help others with it. Now that’s nice. ATB

Trek

OT - Scarabbeatle (13:47) MMC....

Firstly apologies to the BB for OT. Scarabbeatle, fyi I won’t respond to any replies here. Firstly I have only glanced. I do not invest without doing research even if that means working into the night before the opening bell.

Folks are hoping MMC are bought out a the year high 1.95. They forget to mention it still needs 51% and an EGM... here’s the link to research..

https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk/#stakebuilding

And you need to check the articles of association for any poison pill, I haven’t but they will be on the co website.

It’ s also useful to look through the RNS’s of. Companies that have recently become a shell. Not all work out but one I made money on recently through trading is BOU and another I escaped from is NUOG. Read the RNS’s and familiarise yourself with the journey, look at the news and compare it to the SP charts and copy across to MMC.

You also need to understand the financials of being a shell, time limits etc, I. Have a basic understanding, there’s info on thee London stock exchange. Look at AIM rule 15 and examples.

Look at trading RG has added significantly as have Lombard, interesting as they are in sht but they picked up shares from Nortrust who dumped near 12%. Now back to my 51% of votes. Looks like collusion here. But that don’t mean necessarily a good outcome for shareholders. Could go private then sell. I haven’t checked warrant holders but that often has an interest give away.

I have no idea what MMC do, what it’s cash position is, it’s prospects, ROCE, EBITDA or anything else as to be quite honest after just a quick glance in about 4 mins, too many red flags! It took me longer to write this. I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole. Looks like a stitch up. But Like I say if you really dig I may be wrong as I have not done enough research and it all could go well. Atb

Trek

Sorry should say ‘wasn’t a last minute dump’ but I guess you worked that out. Atb

Trek

Ok science, prospects etc aside. I guess the question is was Fridays drop into the close due to bad news leaking out. Well the only indicators we have atm unless there is something in the media is the trades... Fridays late trades strangely enough were indicative buys insofar as they were above the ask at the time....

16:24:41 22-May-2020 53.88 GBX 27,830 14,994.80 Off-book LRGS AIMX
16:15:13 22-May-2020 53.70 GBX 27,923 14,994.65 Off-book LRGS AIMX
15:59:43 22-May-2020 53.09 GBX 35,193 18,683.26 Off-book LRGS AIMX
15:59:36 22-May-2020 54.10 GBX 24,000 12,984.00 Off-book LRGS AIMX
16:28:12 22-May-2020 53.90 GBX 18,538 9,991.98 Off-book LRGS AIMX
16:24:10 22-May-2020 53.22 GBX 13,112 6,978.47 Off-book LRGS AIMX
16:17:01 22-May-2020 53.62 GBX 12,849 6,890.28 Off-book LRGS AIMX
16:15:04 22-May-2020 53.00 GBX 15,000 7,950.15 Off-book LRGS AIMX
16:14:03 22-May-2020 53.62 GBX 18,640 9,995.70 Off-book LRGS AIMX

So it was a last minute panic dump. Trust me (well don’t but you know what I mean) I have seen many Friday dumps over the year at the death and been faced with an oh sht RNS on the Monday! All MiFid compliant of course!

Anyways the other indicator is daily volume. A falling SP with high volume on a SETSqx stock is mathematically not good....

Well the volume has been bugger all, in fact it’s been pretty low since the 12th May.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&pageOffBook=0&fourWayKey=GB00B0381Z20GBGBXASX1&formName=frmRow&upToRow=10

Now one thing I am aware of but there is no evidence or references for is that on AIM SP’s do often move disproportionately in low volume ether up or down. They tend to follow a moving average channel until there is a reason either volume or news to step out of it.

Shares can also drift over time as investors get fatigued or jump to the next best thing but in terms of the volume on Friday there is no justification for the sp being higher or lower. It’ll probably tick up again Tuesday as the UT trade was 15k at 51p which looks too low. Who knows we may go up next week and we still won’t know why but if it rises with no news we won’t even ask why. ATB

Trek

Sheltie,
Imo a gut feeling in this game counts for nowt. Rhetorically speaking you gotta research, look at the potential, the cash, the inflection points, the market and if you then get a good feeling you missed something. Always be looking over your shoulder and only increase your risk investment as the odds for each step looks favourable.

MTFB depended on Icalprim getting FDA, then they could get more finance. It flopped and the BoD turned out to be charlatans. IMM depended on lupizor getting statistical differentiation against a placebo in a double blind clinical trial. Surely the wonder peptide would win. It didn’t. Never ever underestimate the power of the placebo.

Avacta is different, insofar as they have raised before the main event(s). They also have multiple platforms for Affimer tech and it’s likely that a big Pharma will buy in. They have two big deals, Cytiva, and Adeptrix (Bams) which should have a rapid route to market. Oh and this amazing B2C deal that is already taking orders for the lateral flow test and the market is just starting to wake up to.....ok so the upside is billions, the science is as proven as it can possibly be but.... A Pharma deal is a boast until it’s done. Billions in revenue is only potential until more contracts are signed and the golden nugget B2C idea is just a web page that I could even write until you gotta a product, infrastructure, logistics and scaleable tech in place. Atm there is only one thing that matters. It’s a bit like reverse jenga, leave that bit IN and all it will fall all into place and that is, can Cytiva produce a membrane that will enable a successful LFT. You see if it fails I couldn’t give a sht about the other prospects, they’re all just that and AS will join the list of charlatans. Now if he succeeds everything else and more comes into play.

I’ve posted pro’s and cons about LFT and why nano got stuck with the temperature tolerance etc. It ain’t in the bag. Sure there is a precedent with the pregnancy pss test but that isn’t affimer. If Cytiva do it FDA will imo be a given. Don’t GMW I have 50% of my whole pf in here now because I am as sure as can be that its in the bag but I spend more time looking over my shoulder researching than anything else and if this LFT is good I won’t have to look at the flipping internet again! Atb

Trek

68cad = 30.92gbp now there’s a first! Blue day on tsx Monday I fancy.

Trek from a rather consistently sunny Dartmoor, another first! Lol!

“I assume it's not possible to transfer to ISA directly????”

You can bed and isa once they are in your account. Some brokers charge a fee in addition to the B&I trade others do a one off fee as a single transaction.

For primary bid you pay on your debit card. It never ceases to amaze me the number of people that have a float available for such events. I tried to get a few today but was too late.

It’s worth signing up for an account. You can download the app and see some of the ridiculous discounts. One recent placing was 76% discount! I think we did ok and even though I didn’t benefit directly I was pleased that some PI’s got some. Mind you imo the smart ones were those that bought the dip, now that wasn’t luck. Well done to anyone that topped up from the off amongst the panic! Cool indeed!

Trek

Well that’s my 50th trade here in save(p), a buy at the death, so there’s always a winner. Centre stage interactive investor! No such thing as a poor bookie ah!

Have a nice weekend all.

Trek

SP now up 7p, just epitomises my earlier comments. I hope new/potential investors understand the market machinations as it can be somewhat off putting if one doesn’t understand the impact of spread and liquidity. Atb

Trek

I just dialled in and looked at the SP. All I can say is lol! There are no other appropriate descriptors!

Taking my good lady to clinic today for the old C check up. Just like to say thank you for the kind wishes from my virtual friends. Have a great weekend all and remember.....

Health is wealth...

ATB

Trek

If carlsberg did a placing this would be it! I don’t see the new institutions wanting to sell, they’d be chomping to get involved at any scale with a co like this.

Congrats to those few PI’s that got in and an even bigger well done to those that read it and bought the opening dip. Nice work!

Reckon we’ll be testing new highs in a couple weeks coz all those 6 or more pending contracts need RNS’s!! Gonna be a lot of news steroids for this aim stock soon!

Imo if you panicked and sold, it’s understandable. Just have a sleepless weekend of reflection, you’ll get over it. Or of course you could buy back now. Each to there own. I did nothing, now as it turns out that may not be such a bad result! Atb.

Trek

Just come back from early morning bike ride and saw PrimaryBid email and rns and thought whoopee do as I just happen to have money in account for a car deposit. Brill fill ya boots! Then wtf! It’s closed!

Whose got all that cash just sat there!

So much for all the derampers- oversubscribed from insti’s and PI’s says it all!

Trek

Here here! Nice find itsyou, pretty sure news will resume now out of close period.

As for the drop today it’s showing the 78 UT trade, had the 87.40 buy gone though earlier it would have closed unchanged. The 10% spread and illiquidity is a pain but when we get ppe news/ pot hole RNS/ Grafysorber deals / or apparel deal it will be virtually impossible to buy so the sp should move well north. Still got plenty of cash on books as well!

Trek

US shale would be a game changer for Grafysorber, especially as regulation tightens up on decommissioning fields. Directa could license out the equipment, have setcar set up do training etc. Better than having loads of folk on the books for ‘straightforward’ jobs or sub contract the work, charge premium for setcar etc, Lots of options.

I notice your emoji (wink) I was told 3 weeks for the masks, but they said in interims finals due mid May. The nomad may have advised against any significant ops news during the close period that could better be clarified after the finals....

“Why Companies Tend to Stop Making Statements During a Close Period
Companies typically refrain from releasing price-sensitive statements or news during the close period. This differs from a quiet period where companies must embargo any public promotions before an initial public offering is made. Companies may choose to withhold making statements during the close period to prevent the company’s shares from being affected ahead of the release of the expected financial results.

If possible, a trading statement or other news might be issued prior to the start of the close period. Companies can host discussions with investors and analysts before the close period commences. It is also possible that statements and news relevant to the financial results would be released as part of the filings or shortly after.

For instance, the company might wait until the financial results are published before revealing the test results for a new product or plans for a new initiative to expand operations. There can be cases wherein a company must report news or statements during the close period even if it might influence share prices. Accidents and calamities that affect the company’s operations may need to be publicly acknowledged. A disaster at a company’s major production facility could not be ignored regardless of a close period. The sudden or unexpected departure of members of executive management likewise can call for public statements by the company that cannot wait...”

So we may get updates next week. 2+2=6

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/closeperiod.asp

Trek

Given that northern Italy (Milan) was locked down at the start of this year, the trebling of revenues is pretty impressive. I understand the reluctance to give guidance yet but at least that is encouraging and he has intimated any gap could be far outweighed by the PPE project. I am disappointed that we have not had more info on ppe yet. Sounds like they are mixing the G+ with some bacteria to enhance the antibacterial static properties hence a delay, may be a new breakthrough?

If there was a hit I expected (as posted earlier) Setcar to have a set back but they signed another deal worth 700k recurring for 7 years, a decent vote of confidence. I do think though that they are missing a trick by not using setcar resources for deep clean of Covid 19. But hey! Being greedy!

All in all a decent set of numbers, no surprises and a muted market response thus far. In this environment no surprises is a good result! Need to wait for the market to absorb the numbers.

Just wish we had more liquidity here, SP spikes regularly 8p, it’s all over the place. Atb.

Trek

Sorry should say just a ‘few market makers’, screen keeps reloading!

Trek

I have noticed it as well, the term is backwardation, it normally happens with a wide spread. I see it regularly on DCTA, where I have a large holding, the stock is illiquid so with just a few y may be struggling for minimum stock so the buys and sells can be priced either side the mid point. Unusual to see with this spread though so probably volume driven with the price moving quicker than the ‘timer on dealing’. Probably gets lots of NT next. Atb

Trek