Member Info for TrekMadone

“I can see 1 mil sold and 2 mil bought y such a big full”

Politely, that is not so.

I wouldn’t afford to much credence to the buy sells here. When you factor in the 15min delay for the LSE algorithm it can report a buy as a sell and vice versa.

So when a sp is rising quickly. Most of the buys look like sells as when the algorithm runs they will be below the mid point.

Conversely when a sp is falling quickly sells will look like buys as the by the time the algorithm runs the strike price will be above the mid point so the sell looks like a buy.

So as we have had a volatile day they buys/sells are pretty meaningless. You get a similar scenario with a larger spread or when MM’s have different positions in their books

Trek

Hi Ghia,

No idea, could be our US pair buying in the turmoil or just sentiment. Herd mentality is a funny thing. People buying in even numbers, many PI’s favour round numbers and lots felt they missed this one. People also set buys at say 200p and then when it just doesn’t look like it’s gonna get there they settle for 202 and trade manually.

The drop from 250 to 200 is as irrelevant as the climb from 200 to 250.

You got folk buying back in at the close today. Look at the intra-day chart it sat at 230 level for ages and then fell off a cliff as panic ensued. Then look at the buys end of day. Anything at 202 is a buy as that’s the ask. FOMO kicks back in.

If you read up on Elliott Wave theory it’s surprising how this stuff actually plays out.

Having read lots into it I decided I shouldn’t read too much into it!

TBH I missed a trick today as I should have sold and grabbed a few extra shares but wasn’t on the ball. Fair play to those that have.

As long as you get back in and can look at your pf in the red and explain to ‘the Mrs’ it’s actually blue. Trust me I’ve banged my head with that one. Lol!

Yep interesting day today for sure and have experienced many such days over the years.

ATB

Trek

Here’s today trades up to 16:30, there will be a few late reports but the main thing is mostly ‘small’ trades. Not big round number blocks.

Could see another dip tomorrow early doors, then be killed in the rush back up! Who knows.

Better to understand it’s all part of the gAIM and news will come soon enough.

https://api.londonstockexchange.com/api/gw/lse/download/SNG/trades

Trek

It’s been mostly ‘small’ trades today 1-5k shares. That indicates to me some late comers selling as they get close to their buy in. Understandable. There is still plenty of liquidity. The market will take 10, 20k sells no problem.

At the end of the day it’s impossible to price this. The news so far indicates a market SP of 1.70 to 2.54. That’s a huge bandwidth which will only be tightened or underpinned by the next RNS.

The MM will use every opportunity to create liquidity here. It’s their job. Lots of volume lots of cash.

Some would have sold out and be looking to buy back in. Some who missed out will be looking to buy in. Some may now be selling and could end up accidentally being locked out! Ouch!

Good news is though that few seem to have said that’s it and exited altogether!!

All part of the gAIM!

Sanguine, Trek

Sitting at 8. This has got some catching up to do when/if the EP arrives and still not impacting on the first pour window. Added more here!

Trek

Yes CD VAT offset’s may indeed be the best option if the govt are open to debate. It’s not just Tanzania many countries are in the same position, I hold a significant position in TXP who have been owed VAT by Trinidad and Tobago govt. The key is the news is in the open. It’s in the QPB as outstanding and therefore, whilst irksome its in the SP. The market is wise, it knows in light of covid their will be massive fiscal constraints. Whilst it’s not written off the decent volume here shows there is a bigger story at play.

I am really impressed with the numbers but there are always a few bits worth understanding. I haven’t had time yet to look deeper but it seems that we will in effect have two AISC numbers. One for current ops and one for BC, Luika and Ilunga to include underground operations. So a portion of capex will either be set aside or they will report it differently.

This is the problem with ‘all in’ it’s open to interpretation. However, that said as long as it’s open that’s the key bit. Obviously i can see why they have done it as it’s expo rather than production.

With respect to the ebitda number its doesn’t included forward unsettled contracts but I think that is more to do with the new IFRS standards (I wish they’d say) which I am still struggling to get my head around.

I think the cash position is excellent and they are getting more $/oz with a massively deleveraged balance sheet.

“The Company's unrestricted cash balance at 30 June 2020 was US$12.9 m, up from US$3.5 m at 31 December 2019. Net cash at the end of the Period amounted to US$2.1 m (FY 2019: net debt of US$14.3 m).”

I am not surprised to see us up today but I thought it would be higher. I think once these numbers sink in this will rerate. Cash in this market and low debt is key. They don’t need money via equity. They can grow organically from here and will be getting an extra $300-$400/oz! Excellent!

Trek

Don’t underestimate the pent up demand for SNG001 or home trials across the world and how it will move markets. Plasma is a much smaller play. RM is motivated by doing things right not the SP and that’s what will drive the SP... patience for now...

“Elsewhere, US authorities announced on Sunday an emergency authorisation for doctors to use blood plasma from recovered coronavirus patients as a treatment against the disease that has killed over 176,000 in the US.

The move by the US Food & Drug Administration comes as President Donald Trump faces intense pressure to curb the contagion that has impaired the world's largest economy and dimmed his prospects for re-election in November.

The plasma is believed to contain powerful antibodies that can help fight off the disease faster and help protect people from being seriously hurt by it.

"Markets are opening this morning to optimism on the therapeutics front after the FDA authorized the use of blood plasma from Covid-19 survivors to treat sick patients. Not the Covid-19 cure all the world is hoping for, but it is another positive step to help patient recovery time and get people back on their feet quicker," said AxiCorp's Stephen Innes.”

Trek

Loan payed off and Kenya financed (which we knew). The yoy turnaround with no LTI’s has been very impressive. The numbers speak for themselves. There is still the cloud of the VAT returns though but all in all I think the results will go down well especially given outlook.

Trek

Here you go sensibles, thanks to Troajan on the KAT bb.

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/time-to-look-at-the-miners/?mc_cid=bb541ce0d4&mc_eid=cc20a9f228

I did a similar exercise before buying. Selecting 6 from 30 gold miners. Wrote the names down the side of an excel and a wish list across top like, mcap, geo, grades, expo upside, BoD, cash position etc and gave each a score of 1-5 according to my views.

You could easily do the same. It won’t be perfect but you will come to understand your investments better. You can also keep it running and add to positions...

Atb

Trek

There are three companies listed here working with ‘breath’ technology. Just change specimen collected drop down to breath.

https://chs.asu.edu/diagnostics-commons/testing-commons

Trek

Here is an article that may help you pick.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/gold-secret-weapon-top-isa-investment-funds-ii513251?utm_source=IBMW&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Fund%20spotlight_230820&utm_content=&spMailingID=10302551&spUserID=MTI1MDU0MTk3NzM1S0&spJobID=1574611105&spReportId=MTU3NDYxMTEwNQS2

Alternatively you could diy, pick the top holdings from a selection of funds and copy them or create your own excel and work out what companies meet you risk appetite.

Trek

So Trump announces SNG001 before the UK market get an RNS. Well that breaks all the regulatory rules so I guess it’s possible! Lol!

Trek

Well the best thing about charts is you can always find one you like! I don’t know if the settings save here...

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SGZ/scotgold-resources-limited/company-page

Basically the RSI-14 of 30 indicates the sp is oversold/cheap at this level! I was looking to fathom out why we have gone from 88p to 98p in such a short time on diddly squat volumes.

It’s the low volume that often shows wild swings and larger spreads on SETSqx, nothing to worry about. Just use it to one’s advantage.

Re the buys and sells here. I wouldn’t afford to much credence. Once the spread is out it depends on what the best MM book is available. You can often trade pretty close to the mid point and then when you factor in the 15min delay for the LSE algorithm it can report a buy as a sell and vice versa.

This is easiest to see it is when a sp is rising quickly. Most of the buys look like sells as when the algorithm runs they will be below the mid point.

Conversely when a sp is falling quickly sells will look like buys as the by the time the algorithm runs the strike price will be above the mid point so the sell looks like a buy.

They probably used a similar model for exam results to force their stupid bell curve!

Imo the key guide is the charts rising/falling sp candles and the Sp trend over time which is the best indicator of the SP trajectory obviously in the absence of a news driven event.

I have this one clear to 125ish when we will move sideways a bit. It’s a really bullish staircase with approximately 40p steps. Those steps will get higher after each period of consolidation. It’s a very positive chart here. Easy to time an entry then forget about it.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SCOTGOLD-RESOURCES-LIMITE-5984124/charts/

Trek

“Dose anyone know the dilution there has been since the £10 days”

Without going back through my calculations 40% from memory

Trek

Agree I have been through local newspapers and govt sites. Nothing.

Covid has knocked things for 6 it’s just a process of catching up.

What I will say though and this is true for the world over. I expect fiscal changes to pay for Covid. Mining companies that benefit from pog are an obvious target.

There’s nothing to say that’s coming but the tea leaves are there and they (govts) will think of it soon!

No news is good news so ‘they’ say.

Trek

I don’t know if the settings here save but look at the candles here and the RSI-14 tick up to tad, it’s actually now over 67. Remember on RSI 70 is overbought, 30 is oversold but an early step up can indicate a new level. So after 14 days an RSI of 70 becomes closer to the mid point of 50 unless it breaks higher which is what I think is happening here. A bull reversal is forming based on the trend of the last two months.

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?chart=technical&sharechart=SAVE&share=Savannah-Energy

A close above 8.5 pips our recent high then a close in the 9’s the previous high again. That confirms an uptrend and a bull reversal. Obviously news changes everything. It’s just another research tool.

When we get to the 9’s which we will as there is a gap at 9.8 which hasn’t been bought we will then be looking to break through the hemline at 12p, 15p and eventually back to 21.5p.

I am no expert at this but I cannot stress how busy the bottom is. It indicates to me the same money has been moving out and back in waiting for news to break or an uptrend. Just look at how crowded it is!

Like I say once we get going sentiment will set this off, HH gas prices have been bullish, domestic demand, infrastructure spend and covid spend around corner. Nigeria not so badly hit from covid due to much much younger demographic etc. Factor in payment news and an end of radio silence and there is a perfect storm here. So even if it don’t got to 21.5 it’s going up and imo it will break fast soon. Why because that is another way the MM can make money and a market. It’s akin to adding a spread over time. E.g. 8p today gap up to 10p. Who’s made all the coin in between if you can’t buy? It’s a synthetic spread. That’s why so many 20% days on AIM with so few trades in the middle.

Apologies a bit rampy but make your own minds up... The bearish outlook on the chart will autocorrect once the trend moves.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SAVANNAH-ENERGY-PLC-17083789/charts/

Trek

Buys above 8 at last. An 8.5 close is significant here. Then we will see the 9’s.

One thing never changes though, I tend to buy too early and sell too flipping early!!

Sentiment gonna drive this now back to double figures!

Trek

We’ll actually the SP will be taken down as much as possible today until the close that is. The expectation of some news next week will be too much. Especially a Monday 7am RNS which gives them the weekend to fine tune.

Trek

Odey would have been able to see Barrick Buying, which you can with the right subscription systems beyond the means of most PI’s. It’s all taking shape now. Onwards and upwards as they say!

Trek

You did well a got 7.9 for a much lesser amount.

Flipping trades into here now. Very confident!

Trek