Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi Yorkie,

That’s a fair point but Paracle selling wouldn’t be enough to sell the Co to a Chinese predator unless BCM and AIMS (assume warrants convert) also want to sell. Either or could also buy Paracle’s share. It’s great to have such huge investors but sometimes it can make things complex within the takeover code. Holders above 30% will have to make a bid or sit it out for a year from memory.

On the flip side the capital structure would ensure a good price for any bid and for sure PI’s would benefit but I am not convinced that that’s the MO this time around.

Having peaked above 9p though any bid under those rules would guarantee profit!

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Once the EP arrives it will put a floor under the SP and hopefully take us well above 9p. That should mean another floor from PI’s holding now as all would be in profit.

EP then clocking those ounces, then a hand may be forced. A very interesting investment that’s for sure!

Trek

Hi Yorkie,

Thanks for sharing I agree with most other than point 4. I don’t see GRL being taken over. The capital structure simply doesn’t allow it. MBO perhaps but even then pretty pointless. See my posts 12 Sept.

I think the attraction here is the huge historic drill results, grades and the gold footprints. There is imo a huge untapped resource that can be extracted at a low cost that has attracted such a prestigious shareholding base. If those finds materialise this will rerate significantly.

If gold goes up and they hit the ounces as forecast then why sell when you could get today’s sp back in dividends in a couple of years.

Trek

Hi David,

Totally agree re revs, I posted similar earlier. I think Adam has given us as much a hint as possible though with ‘ALREADY SUBSTANTIAL PIPELINE...’.

It’s quite possible Roche would be interested. We are only 90m mcap and a world leader in this tech. The ability to detect several cancers up to 4 years in advance and use the proprietary platforms to target therapies saving huge costs is a ‘must have’!

The SeroTag platform has over 8000 autoantibodies listed and responses. Lung and liver cancer detection. RA and now developing Lupus. Imagine when ovarian, breast and prostrate cancer is added!

I have been trying to work out who the big 4 Pharmas are. Roche we know, I expect others are MSD (Merck) and BMS (Bristol Myers Squibb), the 4 I haven’t figured yet but you can include NHS as a virtual 5th!

Re finance from last trading update we know cash is ok as expect £4.2m left at year end but it’s the revenue conversion that we need to see for a sp rerate..

“The Board is confident in reporting revenue in line with market expectations for FY 2020. Cash at year end is expected to be approximately £4.2 million and net debt of approximately £3.1 million, reflecting the ongoing cost reduction programme highlighted in the Half Year Report on 12 February 2020.

The contracts signed within the ImmunoINSIGHTS business, and agreements signed with strategic biopharmaceutical partners to develop commercial companion diagnostic devices, provide the Board with confidence that the Group is well positioned to have a strong start to FY 2021.”

So agree how much money is it worth?

However, I do see this bagging again, several times from here. Two big newt term inflection points are the results from the China and Russia EarlyCDT lung trials. Remember Russia includes the former commonwealth territories, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan etc. Why would the validation fail given its use in US, UK, Germany etc!

China and Russia are huge markets. The director options are also completely aligned and don’t kick in until £2.

Proactive today...

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/929752/oncimmune-inks-collaboration-with-genentech-that-broadens-the--commercial-footprint-of-its-immunoinsights-service-business-929752.html

ATB

Trek

Hi Hypermarlin,

Yes I don’t post there much now, or here unless an RNS as on an almost free carry at AVCT, SNG and 100% free carries here and at TXP, ORPH, GGP and NCYT (sold). Just working on one at ONC now in Pharma and a few gold miners for next year.

ATB to you and yours.

Trek

Always a concern when the cfo flogs a few shares but given they were options and not really a lot of shares I don’t think it matters in the scheme of things. Still fully financed for first pour this year. Probably now got the cash to buy a nice PURgold ring!

Trek

Not quite the news I was expecting but if you consider Genentech is a major US biotech and a subsidiary of Roche this is now the third major collaboration with Roche! That is a significant endorsement of ONC’s proprietary platforms, SeroTag, immunoINSIGHTS and NavigAID.

I don’t think the market gets this yet....

ImmunoINSIGHTS is underpinned by our proprietary high throughput immunogenic protein library, one of the largest in the world, allowing for more than 95% of human antigens to be utilised for profiling autoantibodies in patients receiving or about to receive treatment.

With a partnership led approach, Oncimmune is evolving and leveraging its technology with global pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, early stage start-ups, leading academic groups, and not-for-profit companies.

The autoantibody biomarker class is increasingly being recognised as a powerful tool and critical biological mediator including in cancer and autoimmune disease.

Autoantibodies are specific and reflective of disease state, indicators of the activation of both the B and T cell sides of the adaptive immune system, soluble and detectable in low volumes of blood, and raised at the earliest stages of disease.

Used to stratify patients into clinically relevant sub-groups, our ImmunoINSIGHTS service can be utilised to:

Predict response to treatment and immune-related adverse events (irAEs)[1];
Predict the severity of symptoms in infectious disease (COVID-19);
Identify novel target molecules;
Detect treatment-specific immune excitation (e.g. Heating of cold tumours)[2],[3];
Predict off-target effects.

https://oncimmune.com/immunoinsights

And so good of Dr Adam to give us a revenue hint in his CEO blurb.... “....This contract adds to the already substantial pipeline of contracted revenue through our ImmunoINSIGHTS business in FY2021....”

Gonna be a big deal this one. A test platform that can detect cancer four years in advance and is being used by 4 major Pharma companies to target therapies!

Trek

I think it’s here regulatory experience and knowledge that will be key from a NED perspective. Navigating new LBT tech through various approval stages and meeting all the compliance for MicroRX will require the experience of someone that has done it before. That sits well from a NED perspective.

I am also beginning to wonder if MSD are one the the mystery big Pharma Co’s working with ONC given the Keytruda links with their SeroTag platform. It’s just the timings of the part A and B trials with small cell cancers and cross validation with autoantibodies response; would make a lot of sense. Guess we’ll find out in time.

Atb

Trek

4 major deals signed, RNS dates

4...2nd Sept - Autoantibodies profiling using SeroTag. Top 10 Pharma.
......10th Aug - EarlyCDT lung in use in NHS (ITV)
3.....27th July - Substantial contract expansion with Roche for autoantibodies profiling using SeroTag.
......8th July Early Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) detection using autoantibodies
......1st July, EarlyCDT lung being sold in Brazil
2.....21st May EarlyCDT lung contract signed with major Pharma.
1......12th May. SeroTag Collaboration Agreement Signed with Leading US Biopharmaceutical Company

If you include NHS usage that’s 5 major deals.

14th May RNS....ASCO presentation.

“The featured presentation will review data assessing samples from patients receiving either Pembrolizumab, Ipilimumab, Nivolumab monotherapy, or combination therapy of Ipilimumab and Nivolumab, which have been analysed on Oncimmune's proprietary biomarker discovery engine, SeroTag®. The data identified that autoantibodies have a role in predicting clinical outcomes or immune-related adverse events ("irAEs").”

Pembrolizumab trade name is Keytruda, which owned by Merck (MSD). They are also working with 4D Pharma using the MicroRX platform matching LBT. The ONC autoantibodies Test would be complimentary. My money is Merck (MSD) is the US biopharmaceutical Co.

Ipilimumab, sold under the brand name Yervoy, owned by BMS also US
Nivolumab, sold under the brand name Opdivo, owned by BMS.

So guess work is Merck, BMS in the US working with Biodesix and also Roche which we know.

With commercial distribution of earlyCDT Lung in UK, US, Brazil (Valentech), Spain (Sabartech) and other European countries with Russia (R-Pharm + independent states) & China (Genostics) there has to be some huge revenue upsides here!

That is just for EarlyCDT Lung. Add Early, Liver, prostate, ovarian, breast cancer detection and Rheumatoid Arthritis to the platform and this is developing into a huge opportunity!

So much news due!

Trek

First mover advantage. Gold standard. Will soon become ubiquitous. Royalty driven disruptive technology, easily adopted. Customer and Environmentally driven. Unmet need.

Just buy what you can afford, hold and forget for a few months and I think we’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Trek

The move has always been short here and across banks and insurers in general. With interest rates at 100bps and negative treasuries looking a reality, markets down, divi holidays etc I don’t see how Lgen can maintain its 9% divi. These guys rely on bond yields and income from investments to pass on as divi. That’s evaporating!

Waiting for it to hit 150 before starting to average in for a long term tuck away hold.

The stocks to buy now are still selective covid plays, Pharma and gold miners. That’s gonna be the case for a while. Just pick up big hitters when the ft100 is on it’s knees!

Usual caveats

Trek

Roche “In a separate study, the healthcare firm found its drugs reduce the likelihood that patients with coronavirus-related pneumonia require ventilation.

Patients taking one of its drugs were 44% less likely to need ventilators or succumb to death, Roche said, citing a study conducted in countries including the US, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico.

"The EMPACTA trial demonstrated that Actemra/RoActemra can reduce the need for mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19 associated pneumonia, an important outcome in this serious disease," Levi Garraway, Roche's chief medical officer, said in a statement.”

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-price-roche-unveils-covid19-antibody-test-ventilators-1029601942

Trek

An interesting 5min read.

Note the comparison with the 1970’s bull run and the ESG comments which align with COBR’s ethics and make many miners now investable for ii’s.

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/commodities/is-gold-going-mainstream/?mc_cid=c0b042b07c&mc_eid=418bda054f

Thanks all for the previous thanks as my post was looking at the capital structure from a risk based perspective. You don’t need to ramp this if they add oz’s!

Just a note for peeps looking at the finances/presentations sometimes the currency gets mixed, GBP and A$.

Atb

Trek

“In the UK, childcare.co.uk conducted a survey last month. Out of 5,000 people polled, about half declared they would not vaccinate their child when a vaccine becomes available. Some vaccine experts claim that we shall need a 70 percent take-up to render the vaccination programme effective, so this is worrying. ”

“Earlier this week Professor Peter Openshaw of Imperial College London, a member of the government’s SAGE committee, warned that he did not expect a tried-and-tested vaccine to be rolled out in the UK until September 2021. That is probably more realistic.”

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/journal-of-the-plague-year-x-political-vaccinology/?mc_cid=f0b6248a3e&mc_eid=418bda054f

Trek

“In the UK, childcare.co.uk conducted a survey last month. Out of 5,000 people polled, about half declared they would not vaccinate their child when a vaccine becomes available. Some vaccine experts claim that we shall need a 70 percent take-up to render the vaccination programme effective, so this is worrying. ”

“Earlier this week Professor Peter Openshaw of Imperial College London, a member of the government’s SAGE committee, warned that he did not expect a tried-and-tested vaccine to be rolled out in the UK until September 2021. That is probably more realistic.”

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/journal-of-the-plague-year-x-political-vaccinology/?mc_cid=f0b6248a3e&mc_eid=418bda054f

Trek

An interesting 5min read.

Note the comparison with the 1970’s bull run and the ESG comments which align with SHG’s ethics and make many miners now investable for ii’s.

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/commodities/is-gold-going-mainstream/?mc_cid=c0b042b07c&mc_eid=418bda054f

Trek

Part 1

My capital structure notes.

From 13th August 2020, RNS...

Let’s assume the prospectus gets published, we don’t know what set up costs to deduct as they are not specified!

Placing £1.5 million, 1,500,000 zero coupon CLN 2.3p maturity within 1yr from Aug 2020. (Approx 65.2m shares)

Ass warrants = 1 share of 3p each by Aug 2023 or whichever earlier if 5 day VWAP >4.5 pence then mandatory exercise applies. (Approx 50m shares)

Dilution. Note Co have the £1.5m in cash but shares not converted yet. Assume all convert that’s an additional 115.2m shares.

From Aug 220 ppt the quote is approx 98m ‘warrants’ at 2p so difference could be costs? I don’t know. The detail is not broken down.

I can’t fathom 98m ‘warrants’ at 2p from the presentations. Whilst RNS is specific it seems the presentation assumes CLN and warrants are the ‘same beast’ which is confusing. If they were issued for costs then that would have been a conversion disclosure. So we have a potential gap but will assume the difference is set aside.

115.2m - 98m = 17.2m (the unknown difference!)
17m/2 = 8.6m
65.2m-8.6m= 56.6m at 2.3p (£1.5m placing)
50m-8.6m=41.4m (ass warrants, assume 4.5p reached)

Part 2

Incremental shares outstanding = 56.6m (at 2.3p) + 41.4m (at 4.5p)

Total shares as of 18/09/20 = 187,269,317 x 2.8p = £5,243.540 mcap

So 56.6m at 2.3p, assume imminent = £1,301,800 additional mcap.

= 187,269,317 + 56,000,000 = 243,269,317 shares

Assume conversion within 1 year shares = 243,869,317

Assume 4.5p reached and no other warrants (unlikely) so......

By Aug 2023 = 243,869,317 + 50,000,000 = 293,869,317 shares

So assuming my approx calcs add up....

100-(293,869,317/187,269,317*100)= which is 57% more shares.

293,869,317 x 4.5p = 13,224,119.2 mcap

Which triggers, Director Options of 15m shares at 10m MCAP or 1moz resource

So 308,869,317 x 4.5p = £13,899,119.2 mcap.

Current mcap = 187,269,317 x 2.8p = £5,243,540.87

So buying now at 2.8p is an assumption that 2.3p shares are converted but we have the cash. Whilst obviously that is dilutive it is dependent on if the drill, cash expenditure is accretive. i.e. adds assets.

If it does the assumption is the SP will reach 4.5p and the director options are triggered. The concern is that the shares will be forward sold. The 56.6m (placing shares) can be once the prospectus is released but some would be hedged for the 4.5p conversion. The 4.5p warrants would ‘only’ be sold above 4.5p.

Part 3

There really isn’t enough data to be specific but the picture is the same and that is pretty much...

1. The drill results are paramount = the SP trajectory
2. Buying sub 4.5p = risk alignment with warrants
3. Disorderly selling placing shares would not benefit the warrants conversion
4. Gotta assume drill results will be good else no point in investing there are obvious trader buy sell points.
5. They may get an ADI cash injection. 50% of expo costs is described. However, that’s difficult to define, even £750k would be significant
6. There will be more placings, aim is to buy between the placing, 2.3p and the warrant trigger 4.5p.
7. Buys at sub 2.3p will do very well but that could be the same as buys sub 4.5p when the next placing is announced.
8. OR with risk money buy sub £10m MCAP (Director trigger)

INFO...Historical conversions....

8th June 2920....181,818
15th May 2020...1,500,000
11th May 2020....98,515,957 (aggregate blocklisting)
7th May 2020....30,095,354 (19% placing at 2.25p but 23.7% disc)
9th March 2020..1,745,007
5th March...Jim Nominees Pty Ltd of the exercise 333,334 warrants at 2p.
5th March.... previous director share issue. 654,600 (Ken Watson) and 757,073 (Lady Alice Mines) Ltd.

Part 4

16th Jan 2020....placing capital structure. 153,747,138 = 67,233,532 Existing Ordinary Shares; 61,330,000 Placing Shares; 10,058,224 Initial Consideration Shares; 6,066,632 First Reimbursement Shares; 5,818,750 Fee Shares and 3,240,000 Ordinary shares for fees. The Company raised gross cash proceeds of £613,330 and settled £90,587 of immediate cash liabilities in shares.

No other outstanding warrants.

Corporate from RTO...

23 Dec 2019

Cobra RTO of Lady Alice Mines Pty Ltd and its re listing on LSE..

Lady Alice Mines Pty Ltd is the sole owner of:
- 100% of right title and interest in South Australian Exploration Licence Number 6016 (the "Prince Alfred Licence") a formerly producing copper mine (the "Prince Alfred Mine"); and
- an entitlement to earn a 75% equity interest in 5 large tenements near Wudinna in South Australia (the "Wudinna Project") for gold exploration. (Assuming 25% Andromeda)

7th April 2020 RNS -stage 2 completed (as/terms) ADI financing.

“The Company is earning a 75% interest in the Project by spending A$5 million over a 6-year period”

“The Company is also pleased to announce that it was requested to submit a second-round proposal for the South Australian Department of Mining and Energy's Advanced Discovery Initiative (ADI). The ADI programme provides funding of up to 50% of direct exploration costs for new exploration initiatives, including identifying new mineralised terrains.”

The ADI is still pending and reflects a significant inflection point

Part 5

Financial Perspective...

DTR for the six months ended 30 June 2019 loss of £361,284, actually small numbers for what has been achieved.

For the finals to 5th June 2020, loss of £668,900. Have to go through the balance sheet, should be headlined in the RNS. As expected admin was biggest expense £544k, IPO costs xtra £124k.

On these numbers it’s NOT a lifestyle company!!

Pay inc fees, 2019, Craig Moulton £118.5k, Rolf Gerritsen £160.3k. In line with mcap and options are aligned.

Geo see corporate ppt, new tech, driller paid 33% equity. IOCG Huge!!

https://w32.3eb.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Cobra-Resources-plc-Company-Overview.pdf

Trek