Member Info for TrekMadone

I haven’t posted here for a long while having got so much abuse for pointing out the Mologic AB test back in spring was out first and then calling the placing. It was a waste of time posting as peeps would ramp and abuse as opposed to engage even though I laid out the financials. Bit like over at IQ-AI atm so I have given up there as well now. Anyways as an outside GUESS for three out of three.

AB to bid for ODX soon after the IPO. I think that makes so much sense.

I only have a ‘small’ position here and will disappear again now.

Usual caveats

Trek

RNS is probably a massive understatement but all said as far as the market is concerned very little value will be attributed until the EP. The spring just gets cranked up even more!

Trek

Blackrock tr1 added 4.5% + cfd

Explains the spurt today. Wouldn’t be surprised if the knew the situation at iAbra

Trek

Yes they are likely buys as the SP doesn’t move that quickly here. Probably get a TR1 from Aviva soon saying out.

Trek

I see back to 880 here soon. Bought in first lot today. Happy that the raise is out the way and they must still have plenty of cash and we should hear when next GMP production is ready.

I figured the vax risk is to the upside from here. There will be a vax program at some point and OXB are best placed to provide the ‘shovels’ even if it’s not AZN.

It’s a similar story to TTG where I hold.

Usual caveats

Trek

Not sure you will see 2.7 again on TA. Only if there is an ops issues. Can buy or sell 600k on ii no NT. that’s a very good market and spread is much tighter than show here.

Trek

Just sold 10k, only as a hedge so if it drops can buy back and help the average. For info can sell but to buy back is NT. Also any sale is near ask.

Make of it what you will. Using ii.

Trek

“Augmenta is a California-based biotech company which works with leading pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology companies, and research institutions to discover new therapies by identifying the human immune system's protective response to diseases.”

Adam mentioned the US West Coast biotechs in the FY2020 presentation. It was part of the SeroTagTM service offering DD. Looks like Augmenta coming to us to validate their mAbs superiority is a great validation of ONC NavigAID tech!

Now hands up I didn’t get the covid-19 link and thought it warranted a separate RNS. Then I did a little digging and presto! All makes complete sense now. What an understated RNS Adam!

2/11/2020....’TFF Pharmaceuticals, Inc. : and Augmenta Bioworks, Inc. Enter Into a Worldwide Joint Development Agreement for COVID-19 Monoclonal Antibody Therapies’

Extract ...

“Under the terms of the Agreement, both companies will collaborate in a Joint Development Project to develop one or more commercial therapeutics based on, derived from, and/or incorporating Augmenta’s human monoclonal antibodies to potentially treat patients with COVID-19......”

They have been working on this for months, worth reading the link. ONC are now part of a therapeutic! We have the proprietary go to platforms for validation. That’s why we are part of Lighthouse labs, the UK plc covid plan and now our USP is known across Pharma and the important west coast. It’s like biotech silicone valley!

Again though no numbers but remember we have been guided to £56m revs in the FY. This will be part of that. Isn’t if fun being in a Co like this so early!

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TFF-PHARMACEUTICALS-INC-69391266/news/TFF-Pharmaceuticals-Inc-and-Augmenta-Bioworks-Inc-Enter-Into-a-Worldwide-Joint-Development-Agr-31672856/

Usual caveats

Trek

“Does anyone know if he was over 30% he would have to make an offer for a fully listed company, hence the sales?”

It’s 30% to make a bid. +50% votes to go through.

Under a scheme arrangement it’s 75% votes but 90% forces out the minority.

There are exceptions, a disclaimer for holdings over 30% can negate a bid

This link explains it well

https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk/

Soon for the placing. Imo the company hasn’t got enough funds from the CLN’s as the stroke price was low. The SP now say 11p v a high of 22p is a good time to raise. They’d probably only need 2m to follow through with nasdaq listing and working capital. That’s about 15% on 16m mcap but it was 22p so quickly becomes less than 10% dilution and the upside would be well north of 22p if they did. It really is short term pain long term gain!

TB could also take part and disclaim if he was over 30%.

Usual caveats,

Trek

I have reread these tweets, without my rose tinted glasses on. Tweets 1 to 5 sound more like they are setting expectations for an event further into the future.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Avacta

E.g...

‘We continue to make very good progress with a rapid antigen test and with the laboratory based mass spectrometry test. We are preparing for the first clinical evaluation of the rapid antigen test and will update the market fully when that study begins.’

That imo would align more with your view Larsh rather than perhaps what we immediately hope for.

Thanks for posting.

Off out early for a ride today. Hopefully all will be revealed by the time i’m back!

Trek

Where next for vaccines.... worth a 5min read.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/stockwatch-where-next-vaccine-heroes-share-prices-ii514102?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Afternoon_round_up_newsletter_new_template_10112020%20(1)&utm_content=newsletter&spMailingID=11107910&spUserID=MTQyNzM1ODMyODU2S0&spJobID=1632590912&spReportId=MTYzMjU5MDkxMgS2

Trek

Hi iphone,

Your question....

“Are you aware that IQAI is now commercializing products having received FDA?

You have no idea how much money they're getting which they can use for other projects. Most shares are held by the directors as you'll find on the website. When directors have skin in the game, they find ways not to dilute share price.”

Yes it’s in my post

‘We don’t know how much they have from the software sale or if the second grant will come through. ’

‘Even though he has 30% equity he may still take part in a placing at what would now be a favourable price.’

Nice post on L2 perspective

Trek

“I think a listing on the Nasdaq is highly likely ...”

I hope so to but then there will need to be funds to pay for that.

Trek

Hi Mikey,

No I am still in here. Always have kept a decent holding. My point stands though it’s all about the LFT. If you want to look back through my posts you’ll see that I have been consistent. Imo there are other more near term biotech plays in the therapeutics space for a better mcap balance at this point.

The quote was from the PM. And no they, Pfizer, haven’t done an in human challenge trial. Thankfully! Open Orphan have started though!

Pfizer are down 1.3% atm (US) and still down on Jan yet the market is up!

I wouldn’t say my post was a deramp. Isn’t the 6 important? Isn’t a £900m bid significant. Isn’t it flipping frustrating! Or are we not allowed to express both views here.

Anyways I can’t read most as they’re are lots of green boxes between these posts on this thread other than yours, poundcake and PL75. So now the rest of you know you had already been filtered as rampers! Lol!

Ps who mentioned XEL! That was a lesson that really hurt!

Usual caveats,

Trek

It’s a the fact that they have declared the likelihood to raise. I am in at 5.6p but I would rather the company addressed any cash position especially at a critical negotiating juncture. We don’t know how much they have from the software sale or if the second grant will come through. The cash burn here is high as is the nature of the business. Imo get it done and even push for US listing.

The directors letter is to cover the going concern, it could be a bridge but it’s not free money. Even though he has 30% equity he may still take part in a placing at what would now be a favourable price.

They carried £611k forward from June and burn £367k in the half year. With the deals they have been doing and FDA submission, admin and legals may be higher. I am hoping they’d have some upfront payments.

The $2.5m grant is for tools development and starts from 1st July. It’s to be spread over 5 years.

“Shut up with silly talk of placings.” Tsk! Tsk!

I thought it was a open BB that welcomed constructive ‘grown up’ debate.

Personally I find more thought through challenging views of more use than the 70p tomorrow brigade!

I am fortunate to have a cushion here. Others may value or not have considered alternative reasons for the sp drop other than just those nasty MM’s!

Usual caveats,

Trek

Well said! I have been saying all along that at the moment the sp is all about the LFT. There is very little value in the therapeutics or even BAMS for that matter.

If the LFT comes off then other value will credit. People saying nothing has changed. Wake up a lot has changed in the last 24hrs. The SP has illustrated what can potentially happen if we miss the boat.

The £900m LFT bid Friday is no small matter nor is the importance of being in the 6. Look at how many bids have been landed by Premier Design & Abbott due to first mover advantage. I sold out of NCYT thinking this was going the be next and replace them.

For various reasons we are playing catch up, not only with other testers but also a vax, despite all its shortcomings. We can moan all we want about fridges but the market took note and I expect there will be more news on the vax front from others soon.

Sure there’s room for all in the testing space and we will hopefully have the gold standard. It just would be nice to be securing bids from £1.20 than 60p, or 50p or even 25p if ‘gap science’ is to be believed!

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/medical-consumables/?region=UKI

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AVACTA-GROUP-PLC-26123500/charts/

Trek

Imo it’s been walked down for the placing and probably equity and CLN mix. They would be silly not to take advantage of the vwap over 5 days and then this fall to give the insti a good price. Should get an RNS in next few days. If not we are clear. Better to just get on with it though imo.

“The current economic conditions continue to create uncertainty, particularly over (a) the level of demand for the group's products; and (b) the availability of finance for the foreseeable future. The group's forecasts and projections, taking account of reasonably possible changes in trading performance, show that additional funding will be required either via an issue of equity or through the issuance of convertible loan notes. The Directors are reasonably confident that funds will be forthcoming if and when they are required. The Chief Executive Officer has provided a letter of financial support to the Group to make sufficient funds available, if required, to ensure the Group can meet its obligations over the going concern period.”

It’s ok don’t expect any ticks! Can’t spend them anyway but my money is on a raise this week.

Trek

“The level of disclosed Short Interest in DDDD has changed materially.

Short Interest has moved from 1.57% on the previous trading day to 1.01% today. That is a movement of -0.56 percentage points.

Click here to see the full detail broken down by fund

This data is taken from the FCA and comprises all disclosed short positions above the 0.5% reporting threshold requirement.”

I don’t think they’re doing very well here! Lol!

Trek

Pfizer up 11% but down 7% since Jan 1st. Stats hey!

PM from marketscreener Pfizer news tab...

“Irrespective of whether there is a vaccine on the way or not

we must continue to do everything possible right now to bring the R down.

And that is why we hope and believe that mass testing will help.”

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PFIZER-INC-23365019/news/Prime-Minister-s-statement-on-coronavirus-COVID-19-9-November-2020-31729459/

Also note no in human challenge study of the vax. Just the stat basis. Early days.

Trek

8 companies listed in commons now.

Search, antigen, Lateral flow, saliva.

https://chs.asu.edu/diagnostics-commons/testing-commons

Trek