Member Info for TrekMadone

Hi BIGmj,

I think you will get your losses back and some over on GRL pretty soon. I don’t post there much now as have a nice cushion and derisked a few

As for here. Fortunately I derisked before the drill and road a punt which I sold at 70 odd % loss. Not to worry. Put what was left into IQ-AI as my next high risk fun trade. Should pop soon.

I have learnt that things that go down on AIM often (not always) go down again! There really isn’t much left here. Peeps averaging down hoping to trade out or traders buying to trade out on a bounce. What does that say mid/long term. I think all will be burnt playing that game. Imo it’s over for BPC. There is no way the govt will revisit all that contention nor will a farmer be interested. They are into wind and gas now. I feel for the poor ex cerp guys that have been diluted into oblivion! Shame I was in here first around 2000!

Spread the risk and ride your winners which fortunately for me, same as yourself have been very very many this last year. Best ever!

Good luck with your investments and likewise I genuinely hope anyone here did only commit what they could afford on a wildcat and all are ok.

A sad couple of days for all after such a journey.

Trek

Meant to say, there is an article on front page of the times today. Doesn’t mention KMK on font page but it shows govt waking up to threats!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-55990321?xtor=ES-208-%5B41963_NEWS_NLB_ACT_WK07_Tues_9_Feb%5D-20210209-%5Bbbcnews_uk_papers%5D

Trek

“The problem becomes more awkward to grasp when a virus mutates completely altering known characteristics. How quickly can a detector's program be adjusted/adapted to recognise a new threat.”

In very simple terms it reads ALL pathogens. So it takes a sample of the air and reports what shouldn’t be there. It doesn’t matter what it is. That is then matched an analysed so it would likely find new pathogens as well as report on know ones. Akin to water sampling.

Trek

Pretty confident we’ll see £2 middle of next week. It usually takes a couple of days for this one to rise following results. May get a little lift Friday as buyers buy in anticipation.

Trek

DG this was marked down pretty much all day today and then up at the close! Pretty manipulative as no/little stock I think!

I note your Techinvest reference to ORPH. I seldom post there now as I have been in since 6p. Good to know we must be doing something right!

Trek

Here you go mark,

Have a read and put 2+2 with NantEnergy, PS’s track record and DCTA’s verticals.

“In September 2018, his company NantEnergy announced the development of a zinc air battery with a projected cost of $100 per kilowatt-hour (less than one-third the cost of lithium-ion batteries).[42]”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Soon-Shiong

“NantEnergy delivers clean energy solutions that benefit people, business, and the planet”

https://nantenergy.com/

Trek

Unfortunately the brokers don’t/can’t factor in what we don’t have yet. They price around €7m revs. They do not factor in potential transformational news like a NexTech contract, a huge Iterchima order or additional Setcar orders let alone breaking out mask sales to high brand establishments like Lambo, F1, universities etc..

There are only 61m shares here. The float is minuscule! As a result price movements are distorted either way but with this buying pressure and more news it’s going to get a spike soon. I maintain my prediction of a £250m mcap this year. That’s £4.

Trek

Qd22,

Thank you happy to share what little I know. I find that more often than not most people that make a little bit of cash tend to help others out with it. That’s a great motivation for many posters!

Anyways re the warrants. Many folk don’t appreciate the issuance of warrants, options or CLN’s is how these small Co’s finance. They issue a prospectus and list to raise cash. Those in early hand over cash for shares and they often get a warrant, a right to buy another share at a future fixed price. If the SP is higher, not a guarantee, then they may convert the warrant. Often directors will accept options to buy shares in lieu of wages. Sometimes even brokers and contractors accept options for services.

The reason this formula is tried and tested is because of the huge risks. These companies are normally excluded from bank finance as they have little collateral and they can’t go reserve based lending (RBL) as they often have no reserves.

So we list to raise cash ergo it shouldn’t be a surprise when we do!

Looking at the warrants and options note the dates. Some have up to two years to run. Not all hit the market at the same time.

Furthermore, when they are converted to shares it doesn’t mean they will necessarily be sold. Craig hasn’t sold his options. Shenyang sold some to pay for others and look to be sticking on 7.4%.

As a guess from the SP and volume I would estimate that they took a tad over 2wks to shift what they wanted of the 55.3m warrants probably at around 3.3p. That’s £1.82m in shares and the SP is recovering very quickly. That’s very positive.

Now we have around 160m warrants and options outstanding. For roundness say 20% of the companies share capital. At this juncture about to do a JV, we are drilling and we have £4m on the books that is an extremely strong place to be. Many small cap miners are on much high pending dilutions like +40% with no guarantee of hitting the SP targets and may still have to place llet alone own a drill rig and XRF!

But the structure is not the whole story it’s what you do with the money.

To illustrate let’s say all our 160m warrants get converted at 5p over 12 months. That’s £8m. We get £4m in cash! Shenyang took couple of weeks to shift £2m. News will shift more + we have the house broker Novum whose role is to ensure an orderly market and to source ii’s. Imo there will be no problem shifting extra shares and we know we don’t need a placing, 25th Jan 2021 RNS. And we are about to JV!

So the flow through of warrant cash can help make up our JV contributions!

This is what Craig said at the end of the proactive interview...

““It’s incredible when you take something from nothing and find $8bn of gold sitting in the ground and you know that’s what we hope to do for ECR so that’s the type of ambitions we got ahead of us”

That’s worth a lot more than a few million quid!!

Trek

Don’t normally subscribe to such posts but even with my limited charting knowledge the indication is that pull back sub 10p will soon be corrected significantly north. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple speeding tickets soon. A jump to 15p would not be out of kilter and would represent a significant return for traders that seem to be buying.

It’s one of those stocks I’m afraid. It has amazing science but has become something of a traders plaything!

It’ll break through it with news.

Trek

A tad over 28%!

100p at long last! Let the rerate begin!

Trek

Oh come on guys. How many times have we heard don’t invest what you can’t afford to loose. You win some loose some.

I am still waiting for my sell to go through. I put it through at best. I was hopeful for 0.5p tbh as this could now be the end of BPC.

All those ramping on about CERP, Suriname and other frontier value including Malcy and his drivel, coz he likes Potter, will find out what it really is worth on the market in a few days.

I really don’t see anyone in their right mind over investing on a binary outcome whether it’s £200 or £20k it’s all relative.

I expect OMJ will probably release a special edition of I told you so!

Well I’m not bothered. Took a responsible risk and lost.

End of!

Bye all!

Good luck with your other investments.

Trek

Having read the RNS 3 times I still didn’t know what to expect at the open. I could see more delays more validation and likewise a finite commitment, upscaling and a route to validation. Probably just me but I didn’t expect +5%.

Just amazed the majority here were convinced one way or the other!

Trek

ODX RNS.... (I don’t hold but I like additional facilities!)

Statement re. media comment



Omega (AIM: ODX), the medical diagnostics company focused on CD4, infectious diseases and food intolerance, notes the article published online yesterday by the Financial Times.

The Company can confirm that it is continuing to modify its Alva-based facility to upscale significantly its lateral flow test production capacity. When contracts or supply agreements are signed to utilise this capacity the Company will announce this in line with AIM disclosure obligations.

Trek

Post 1

ECR Blocklisting

Just an observation...

I know a while back I pointed out my concern with the then high % of Shenyang’s holdings, the lack of clarity with the blocklisting and confusion over the warrant RNS as there were two 1.125p schemes, 30 Jul and 21 Dec 2018 so unless specified we didn’t know which was applicable for the conversion. E.g see 12 Jan 2021 RNS.

I said that I would be in touch with the company. My post was not well received but that’s how it goes. However, I am of the opinion that several other like minded investors also contacted ECR and what we now have is an RNS 4th Feb put together that pretty much follows schedule six format of the aim rules addressing some of our concerns.

The RNS can be found here as it’s been removed from the RNS page on this lse site.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ECR/block-listing-six-monthly-return/14853542

Here’s the format...

Schedule Six
Pursuant to a block admission, an AIM company must make notification of the following:
(a) name of the company;
(b) name of the scheme;
(c) period of return (from/to);
(d) number and class of securities not issued under the scheme;
(e) number of securities issued under the scheme during the period;
(f) balance under the scheme of securities not yet issued at the end of the period;
(g) number and class of securities originally admitted and the date of admission; and
(h) a contact name and telephone number.

Not a coincidence and to be applauded that they have acted!

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/AIM%20Rules%20for%20Companies%20%2801012021%29_1.pdf

Post 2

Anyone doing their own calculations a cautionary note, some RNS’s refer to warrants and options. There are also 1.125p options!

BLOCK1
So we now know from the Blocklisting RNS 4th Feb 2021 there are....

30-Jul-18 1.125p wars 23244998 issued so far in 28m block. 4755002 NYI.

These expire 30 July 21, see 9 July 2020 RNS. A block had been made for 28m.

92857143 warrants were issued on the 11th Jul 2018 RNS.

BLOCK2
21-Dec-2018 1.125p wars 79285667 issued so far in 82142862 block. 2857195 NYI.

The ‘Dec 18’ scheme is now closed. See RNS 30th Nov 20 so 2857195 warrants have expired. The scheme was for 97142857 shares.

Treating both 1.125p schemes as one and deducting the lapsed warrants (92857143+97142857-2857195 = 187142805) we have had RNS’s for a total of 52683566 which leaves 134459239 warrants which is impossible because that is more than the total of the remaining open scheme of 92857143 shares. I can date all the RNS’s but it will go on forever. I think the picture is better than we think and we haven’t been notified of all the conversions. They have just been bundled into the Blocklisting total. So basically we don’t know what is outstanding from the remaining 1.125p scheme. The next 6 monthly Blocklisting will help.

BLOCK3
20-Apr-2020 1p wars 28300000 issued so far in the 50m block. 21700000 NYI.

These expire 20 April 2022. There were 100m wars issued, see 6th Apr 2020 RNS. We have had RNS’s for 20267820 so if correct that’s 79732180 remaining. That seems right. Probably because it’s clearly a different priced scheme!

Just taking a summary from the 3 Blocklistings, remember that it is only an admin function to save issuing loads of RNS’s there is a total of 130830665 issued and 26455002 NYI on a total block basis from those 3 schemes.

Post 3

OTHER OUTSTANDING WARRANTS & OPTIONS

WARRANTS AT 2.1p
46153846 from 21 Jul 2020 RNS expire 30 Jul 22. We have had RNS’s for 8398827 so 37755019 left if all RNSd.

WARRANTS AT 1.5p
2.5m from 11 Jul 2018 RNS. Issued to SI capital expire 30 Jul 21

WARRANTS AT 5p
27678195 from 6 Jun 2017 RNS, expire 16 Jun 22. Issued to Shenyang

OPTIONS AT 1.125p
We know from 16 Dec 2020 RNS that the options from the pool of 11th July 2018 have completed. That was 250m options at 1.125p total. Tick

OPTIONS AT 1.725p
From 27th Feb 2017 RNS 8153968. Expire 27 Feb 2022

SUMMARY.

Taking a flier on the 1.125p warrants and going for 50m left then adding that to what I know that is 150165394 warrants left and 10653968 options, but there may be more pre 2017.

In terms of cash that equates to an additional £3714742.90 add that to our £4m and 35.3m available for tax offset from 16th Jan 2020 RNS and tax offset is still growing! Then we are in a pretty sound place financially.

Take the worse case say 200m warrants and options outstanding that represents a fully diluted 26% or 21% for 160m. Or another way of looking at it is if you are in at 3.5p and the SP goes to 4.375p then that’s the dilution covered!

This is why I have a slightly different view on a JV. Given that we have two prospective areas and additional pending applications. It’s better to farm out a larger % of say Creswick to fund Balieston with some smart royalty and upfront cash deals. That means less pull on cash and the possibility of using one to finance the other.

Anyways best endeavours.

Usual caveats

Trek

Worth a read. Apologies if posted before...

“The Prognosis

None of the available vaccines is going to be 100 percent effective at stopping serious illness – some people who have been vaccinated will continue to succumb to Covid-19, especially if current restrictions are relaxed and social distancing is abandoned. As a report by the University of Warwick pointed out last weekend that, even if you vaccinate 85 percent of the population (ambitious, given the number of vaccine refuseniks and the number of people who, such as illegal immigrants, will fall through the cracks), and the vaccine turns out to be 90 percent effective, that will still leave one quarter of the total population who will remain susceptible. That could be sufficient to trigger a third wave of the virus next year, according to Warwick’s model.

And, despite the report out this morning, we still don’t know the extent to which vaccinated people will continue to transmit the disease – though, hopefully, hard data on this will become available shortly. Currently, many experts expect the vaccines collectively to be around 60 percent effective in stopping transmission, but it could be less.

Some models suggest that Britain could achieve herd immunity with 70-80 percent of the population inoculated by the early summer – but this is questionable. What is clear is the vaccine developers will have to continue their research to guard against any future mutations in the virus. Potentially, there may be vaccines with two variants of the spike protein which could be used as booster doses.

The UK government has set aside £3.7 billion so far for the purchase of 350 million vaccine doses manufactured by the companies mentioned above; but the Vaccine Taskforce is evaluating another 200 vaccine candidates. The manufacture of coronavirus vaccines will remain a massive endeavour for the foreseeable future. Some players in this space will prove outstanding investments.”

Or invest in testing and therapeutics!

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/the-vaccinators-some-vaccine-developers-have-fared-better-than-others/?mc_cid=2fe3cc62d9&mc_eid=418bda054f

Trek

Worth a read. Apologies if posted before...

“The Prognosis

None of the available vaccines is going to be 100 percent effective at stopping serious illness – some people who have been vaccinated will continue to succumb to Covid-19, especially if current restrictions are relaxed and social distancing is abandoned. As a report by the University of Warwick pointed out last weekend that, even if you vaccinate 85 percent of the population (ambitious, given the number of vaccine refuseniks and the number of people who, such as illegal immigrants, will fall through the cracks), and the vaccine turns out to be 90 percent effective, that will still leave one quarter of the total population who will remain susceptible. That could be sufficient to trigger a third wave of the virus next year, according to Warwick’s model.

And, despite the report out this morning, we still don’t know the extent to which vaccinated people will continue to transmit the disease – though, hopefully, hard data on this will become available shortly. Currently, many experts expect the vaccines collectively to be around 60 percent effective in stopping transmission, but it could be less.

Some models suggest that Britain could achieve herd immunity with 70-80 percent of the population inoculated by the early summer – but this is questionable. What is clear is the vaccine developers will have to continue their research to guard against any future mutations in the virus. Potentially, there may be vaccines with two variants of the spike protein which could be used as booster doses.

The UK government has set aside £3.7 billion so far for the purchase of 350 million vaccine doses manufactured by the companies mentioned above; but the Vaccine Taskforce is evaluating another 200 vaccine candidates. The manufacture of coronavirus vaccines will remain a massive endeavour for the foreseeable future. Some players in this space will prove outstanding investments.”

Or invest in testing and therapeutics!

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/the-vaccinators-some-vaccine-developers-have-fared-better-than-others/?mc_cid=2fe3cc62d9&mc_eid=418bda054f

Trek

“......along with being able to also make our families and maybe 1 or 2 close friends very happy too....”

Well said Agadem. I am on exactly the same page as you. That’s what gives me joy and motivation.

And I always remember ‘health is wealth’.

Good luck with your investments.

Trek

I get the gist but....

Apologies hit wrong button, but what are your views if still here!

Trek