Member Info for TrekMadone

POST 3

COPPER PRICE...

So when one looks at the business plan the 2 year turnaround to profit is based on copper - its more complex than that to the upside as other metals like cobalt are way ahead of plan. Nonetheless, the plan is predicated on $3.6/lb copper.

Source, 17th Aug 2021 interims...

“Empire Mine open pit feasibility model completed: pre-production capital expenditure of $52 million, payback less than two years; gross revenue of $836 million over 10 years, $43 million post-tax cash flow in year 1 (at $3.60 / lb copper price)”

That is an astonishing return and I think it will go higher. It’s one of the reasons I am here but facts are facts!

Copper has pulled back albeit still well ahead of plan but given other copper stocks have also pulled back it’s not unreasonable that we have as well. TA has copper price at a flag just above support at $4. It’s pretty obvious from this graph...

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

Doesn’t need much explanation!

Drivers are macro, China risk (now recovering?) then US bullish. But if you weren’t bullish on green/electrification growth etc you wouldn’t be here! Ok that’s presumptuous! Lol!

I have mentioned before to take a read across of AAL, BHP and POLY only because their graphs are similar. That’s a good indication of the macro. But as far as macro is concerned I could articulate a case either way! Sums it up!

CONCLUSION

Like I said I could easily just ramp away about the experienced BoD, cash position, postcode, intent, minimal dilution bla bla but reality is everyone knows that! It doesn’t answer the question re the dip!

I think it’s a combination of all the factors above. Particularly the copper price. AIM copper has been disproportionately affected by the slightest pull back. We need either news with numbers to lift us which I think we’ll get soon or a macro lift!

Whatever, PXC is a significant opportunity and I am heavily invested cognisant of risks but my upside goes to £8 with a fair winkd!

I hope that helps,

Usual caveats

Trek

Remember what I said about emerging ‘trends’.....

Note the Guardian headlines...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58660168?xtor=ES-208-%5B47432_NEWS_NLB_ACT_WK40_Thurs_23_September%5D-20210923-%5Bbbcnews_uk_front_pages%5D

Trek

Investors will look at this as a good update from a company that has obviously listened and responded to investors wanting to know how ops are progressing.

It sets out a pathway for further updates around drilling/assays and permitting.

Cynics will say it’s just same old and a holding RNS.

Either way, the mine will be built and it’s another opportunity to pick up some quality stock below ath’s which should soon be surpassed.

Usual caveats

Trek

No idea why my last post was removed. Probably coz it was crp! Lol!

Lucky, did you buy back?

Like I said I added at 300p, BTFD!

If not the 300p buy +30% divi beats the 330p sell and quicker than I expected!

Hope you got back in though having done all the hard yards of research.

Anyways it’s still early days yet and anything can happen!

Good luck with your investments.

Trek

Looks like we have been saved in the absence of news by a sector bounce. BHP, POLY and AAL probably the best indicators seem to be recovering on the one month charts.

I was concerned we’d visit 50p here on a TA basis being the top of the one year peak (our recent run aside) and the rising channel support from the April 6th climb up.

I have been selling and buying back cheaper just to get my average down as I was much later to this one than most.

Given how quickly it can move we could skip quite a few stops out on the way back up. I have now cancelled my remaining auto trades as I think it’s turned now.

Happier now to just watch as significantly overweight here.

Trek

Early days but look at the 1 month charts on POLY, AAL, BHP and GLEN.

All the same. Could the bounce be underway or is it that cat again! The charts are pointing to a breakout.

I look at the resistance for those stocks, it can be a good indicator as small caps tend to lag.

Trek

It will Nolupus. Use this opportunity to add a few if you can. I picked up 50k earlier at 6.99.

We tend to go up some time after news, often inexplicably on no news!

I see 10p can be reached again here in a blink. That’s a good lift from where we are now but I am pretty sure there is much more to come.

Love or loathe him TB knows how to get value and he will. We are just laying the foundations for maximising value.

Phase one should kick off next month, that should get some attention with an £11m Mcap!

Like you I reckon he’ll cash out. 50p could even seem cheap for all this AI tech, the increasing customer base in the US and a P1 trial.

We should be well over 30m imo. But hey you can’t have it both ways find an undervalued stock and complain it’s undervalued!

Patience will be rewarded!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi jsmith23,

Always leave something for the next guy. I reckon it will spike early doors and pull back. Future is bright though for ARB. It’s USP is now a green miner. I reckon it will eventually get to £4 but that’s my point. I am not interested in a 2 and a bit bagger from where it sits now.

E.g like one of my other high risk plays IQAI is a potential 10 bagger in a blink so why do I need ARB anymore. Leave it to the herd my work there was done a long time ago.

ECR could do 10p quickly once it gets through 4p. After 3.75p there are only the Shen warrants left, 27.6m at 5p and they expire 16th June 2022. If they convert chances are they will hold and ECR get another wedge. Getting through 4p again from here is the hard yards.

There will also be loads of trading opportunities along the way. Chances to bag some extra shares if you know when the warrants convert.

I expect CB being a finance guy will have an eye on those Shen warrants and we will see a build up in news ahead of them. That could be easy money for ECR and there would be no complaints even with the dilution as by then we will need to think of cash and all holders from now would be well clear. It’s just a pity there isn’t an accelerator clause to force their hand.

Just the clock that’s ticking! Lol!

I don’t see one piece of news shifting us now, more like an accumulation of events. For me the real deal will be when they infill the diamond drills with RC. That will be going for gold!

There’s also the chance of JV and the licence applications, for sure they will be accretive but both are by comparison hope! The JV depends on what we find and the licenses can take flipping years!

The drill is in our hands that’s what I like! What CB has done in getting the mine decline acreage, the drills, pXRF, core sheds, extra geo’s and peeps on the payroll and even the last raise is all about being in control of our own destiny. It’s a longer game but it’s got solid foundations.

It’s just that atm investors know there really isn’t a hurry. Many would rather wait and pay 4p knowing those hard yards have been done. There aren’t many that sniff out a ‘bargain’ and are able to ride it out or trade along the way but imo we’ll be the big winners here. Imagine it gets to 20p that is a very real possibility and you have 4m shares at less than 2p average.

That’s what BCB is doing and I fully get why. Plus if you have a few bets across the sector or small caps in general it improves your chances of finding another ARB!

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s an interesting narrative. The thing is the chart shows what has happened. That is supply side constraints, covid and economic stagnation.

I think the recovery in the oil price is a better indicator.

The real spanner in the works though is China, interfering with the markets and China growth not meeting expectations.

There is also the Evergrande issue which will hit liquidity and some banks other than the obvious like STAN, HSBA. Western banks should fair better though as they have been stress tested and all now have decent tier one capital ratio’s. But it will still be a hit.

Commodities come down to two things, how much the US grow and how much China grow. Atm it’s really just US driven. We need China to spend and grow to really kick start the sector.

I am starting to wonder if China is in a bigger mess than we know. Hence their interfering with all things capitalist.

I have read that many of the state governments are bankrupt (sorry I don’t have a link). They then rely on central funds but corruption is rife as is inefficiency.

If China has a recession which Evergrande could kick off like Lehman’s then that will be bad.

Shares like CCZ can still do well though if they prove up an asset, get taken out, sell to west etc.

Question is how much is in the price and why hasn’t gold taken off.

We can only position ourselves as we read it. I think the west will be spending on infrastructure next year especially green and electrification and we can succeed without China who will eventually print and spend just like the West! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

I sold all my ARB now. My average was 4.3p.

At one point I had 750k shares!

I sold most too early but I have exited there now and bought where I see better value like here and grabbed some divi payers on Mondays dip.

Having dmor on aim playing the wider market is easy by comparison!

I bought GLO, PHNX, TGA, AV. and DLG as main income plays. They made it through my filters some were top ups.

I am looking forward to slicing lots of my high risk stuff to land more income. Hopefully before a Santa rally!!

Yes it can be done I retired at very early self funded from the markets and yes it can also go very wrong! It’s not easy like some folk think. But you only need one or two big winners and no reason why ECR cant be one when you look at our neighbours!

Good luck with your investments

Trek

I am many £k down here but topped up another 100k shares today...

See ARCM RNS today....

“Arc is pleased to confirm that its diamond drilling programme on its majority-controlled licenses in north-western Zambia has intersected massive sulphide copper mineralisation at Cheyeza East. The first hole which is currently being drilled, approximately 500 metres to the northwest of the previous oxide drilling campaign, has intersected massive and disseminated copper sulphide mineralisation, confirmed by both visual observations of the core and X-Ray Fluorescence ('XRF') analyses. ”

That’s Zambia, not my fav place to invest, OK as an add on but note the market response.

CCZ is now below the placing and the prospectus price and still you can sell 1m shares in one hit! I have no idea what is going on with the SP here. Bad news should have been RNS’d an age ago and ASX is much more stricter than AIM so that helps.

Keep an eye on AAL and POLY for a read across. Both also down significantly.

We are not immune to macro trends. PXC is also down to ridiculous levels and I added there today as well.

Sad to say I think it’s China’s growth pause and their market interventions is what is hitting the sector. Even the US trillion dollar Keynesian spending plans seem to be ignored.

Commodities go down further than you expect and bounce much much higher than you expect.

My money is on a turnaround soon.

Usual caveats

Trek

I have been buying here heavily of late for the steady divi.

iMO GLO has been overlooked by the energy price increases which will feed into GLO’s bottom line.

You will see 5 x 1000k buys pop up in a minute at 1.9284p That’s because to buy more was +193 or to buy 5k was 195! Lol! (1 pay 3.99 a trade)

This imo is the best income payer on the market. Quarterly divi that goes up 10% year on year 1.9x covered in last accounts. Don’t believe what you see on the HL site etc. Work it out yourself.

Furthermore, the BoD are mid way through a transformation program to enhance shareholder value.

GLO trades between 188 and 220. You can seldom buy below 190p. Recently was a rarity. I added a load at 189 but often you can’t buy the price you see on google.

This IMO is a gem that the market has overlooked and for its mcap it’s quite astonishing!

I am tipping my winners and some losers from elsewhere into here. My other ventures are becoming too much like hard work now so I intend to retire into GLO and a few others. Well I am retired anyway but yo7 know what I mean!

Usual caveats

Trek

I just bought 10k. It’s all that’s left! Don’t believe me try buying!

Leg up today!

Trek

Another barrier to entry erected. Nice RNS whatever it meant! Lol!

Slowly slowly

Trek

Some weaker hands here may look at the trades page and gauge buy or sell based on the colour.

I’d just like to say that that 20k buy (in red) is one of my top ups!

Slowly slowly!

Trek

I am not good at dates and I don’t like to reminisce because I was such a twt! Lol!

An investor idiot of the first degree! My only winners were lucky. I remember some silly wins on RRL, RKH, and even DES before SQZ, SOU & CAZA went the proverbial **** up.....

And then NPE I bought for what I thought was an obvious takeover, held for over a year, sold it. Next day takeover!

Then BPC was a good one, I reckon I am one of a few to have made money there. But to win you HAD to trade NOT hug and time the cash calls!

There was a website called RNS live or something like that. I used to get a text of all the RNs’s that I had signed up for. It arrived at 0700 conveniently whilst I was walking the dog. Then I’d go home and get ready to trade the spike! (the site was later modified due to a change in legislation!)

A few texts were beauties, like RRL I sold at 9.9p it closed at 6p! Then VOG I remember buying the day before at 4p and selling it literally the next day at 6p! Then DES - frigging oil into water! I was Iucky. I got out by the skin of my teeth. Sold the news thankfully before the bombshell!

Yes I also had some Ariana Silver, I forget the ticker, also MARL, CNR and AAZ the only miner I made money on. Just wish I held AAZ but the chance of civil war put me off!!

I have goosebumps now. XEL I was nearly wiped out! I mean I fell for it. DYOR does NOT always work. In this jungle folks lie. I know it’s heresy to state that but it’s a fact. Do not trust any BoD. The best you get is some are better than others. There are very few without an agenda. PI’s ARE a means to an end!

Don’t trust BB’s, don’t trust directors, don’t trust policy makers, peeps miss that one, but think of the left field impact like tax changes, regulation etc! Don’t trust brokers especially their macro outlook or any of their stock ratings!

There. Now that’s clear, walk down the high street, what do you see. Talk to a friend that has their own business, what’s going on. What are the kids spending money on. Well I bought boohoo at 45p on that one!

You get the gist! That’s real!

You can make or loose shed loads of money here I have done both! Thankfully I am doing ok!

Next lesson is averaging down with the same money on a falling SP. Have you followed my posts here?

I bought back 300k today. I am hoping for a dip tomorrow for the other 200k

It can be done!

Trek

“Picking up on your post, Trek. Does this feel like a repeat of 2008 to you?”

Yes a little. Especially with the pull back and what is hopefully now the nadir.

The tactic for picking potential winners for tomorrow though hasn’t changed.

1. BoD
2. Financials
3. Postcode

It really isn’t that much more complicated. If you have an experienced bod with skin in the game that have the wherewithal to raise cash when needed at the right price in a proven postcode within a safe juro that’s as much as PI’s can dig out.

For sure many companies have extra ‘bells and whistles’ like ECR where their operational autonomy sets them apart or like PXC with their clever non dilutive approach but for the main part....

‘A rising tide lifts all ships’ but those that tick the three boxes will do well and in much calmer waters than some others!

If you then pick three or more you have a better chance. As pointed out below you only need one winner!

You can then sell the others or slice even at a loss if necessary and ride the winner(s) hard.

I have been working on a clear out and backing harder my conviction picks. ECR is one of them.

Usual caveats

Trek

rylidan,

“The benefit of being lth, not stuck to my screen all day.....”

Post 10 of 11 here today! Lol!Sorry I couldn’t resist a little banter.

Hope you had a good round. I too enjoyed the sunshine today.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

BCradar,

“Think you really need help. I’m in at a very low entry price and don’t intend to sell till much much higher . Get it now ???? You’re a trader like lucky , many of us are not and are invested - through the ups and downs !!”

Reread my post. I said I bought the dip at 300p today. Didn’t sell.

Couldn’t care less if Lucky is a trader or not. We are all traders. It’s just the frequency and gap between trades that varies.

I trade to improve my investment average but I generally as a rule keep a core holding and add on dips or sell a little if i think it runs too far ahead.

Been doing this for years. It’s now a hobby as it’s paid handsomely even after allowing for some clangers! The more vix the better imo!

It’s the buying and selling that makes a market. Without folk like me grabbing a few extra on the dip how would our insti exit?

Well they’d have to keep dropping the price until a level is reached where buyers can be found. So I have helped prop us up today! Lol!

Trek

I have posted before that I have been trading this down a while now. My average is just over 2p. I have cash ready to buy again having sold 500k at a tad over 1.8. I thought I had missed the boat but will be putting in soon. Just waiting for Japan/China to return from holidays.

Started buying blue chip divi payers again today.

There won’t be any tapering. Mr Market has just given the fed a taste of what could happen! So could get a bounce as soon as end of week!

Usual caveats

Trek