Member Info for TrekMadone

It’s not the raise that’s the issue. If you get an increase in assets quickly it’s not necesssarily that dilutive. It’s what comes with it! Over discounted (our last arguably wasn’t), any warrants, the short selling and/or forward selling.

I think there is already sufficient discount in the SP. Any ii fortunate enough to get stock should have a partner approach and a % lock in.

Given the lack of liquidity we are in the driving seat. Any accelerated bookbuild should be an opportunity for absolute symbiosis, a long term investor, not a quick flip of stock for short term profit!

This is a great opportunity for an ii, they could see huge future dividend returns.

No doubt they will play ‘carbon hardball’ so it’s important that we sell the ESG benefits of gas as a transitional fuel, the Island support, the community engagement as well as the wider business plan.

Usual caveats

Trek

A pretty dull set of numbers. Not underwhelming not overwhelming. That will do just fine!

Lots hinging on transformation, could argue they are hiding behind it a bit but cash is being produced to buy back stock and pay a juicy divi.

Electric car bespoke insurance is innovative.

A hold for yield imo.

Agree re a take-over. Economy of scales comes to mind.

Trek

In very simple terms. Even if you think we have replaced Chinook with Royston that should take us back to 170p!

Chinook was not a duster and Royston is bigger than Chinook and this result has to a huge extent derisked the next two tests!

The madness of AIM hey!

It’s because the pricing is on buying and selling before value kicks in. We will find value soon.

Trek

‘Therefore I think it would be a limiting factor if they are owned by one Pharma company.’

A reasonable assumption but not how it works. A recent example, Nov last year, is Horizon Discovery Group (HZD). Mostly a gene editing company mastering ‘crispr’ for many large pharma’s. It was bought out by PerkinElmer (UK) Holdings Limited for a 108% premium to the SP in an all cash offer.

Wasn't the best deal for shareholders imo as it was at around their IPO price but HZD we’re hitting some revenue headwinds. Point is there are other diagnostic service providers that would snap up ONC.

Also ONC would bolt on to pretty much to any big pharma R&D dept. They may or may not then outsource services. Take AZN, a pioneering therapeutic discovery pharma. A P3 trial could costs +£100m! They are doing many. ONC mcap is only 125m!

ONC can use its biomarkers to match potential patients best suited for a P3 trial therefore cutting costs and enhancing chances of statistical difference and efficacy potentially saving millions in trial costs!

Why wouldn’t the likes of AZN or Genentech want that for themselves?

Often these fledgling businesses grow faster and more streamlined away from the influence of big pharma and only when they mature are they then snapped up.

IMO say £250m would be daylights robbery for ONC but the market often takes the short term cash.

Anyways great interview on Vox. SP seems to have absorbed the results now.

I posted before the results that I expected them to have been impacted by covid. But there was so much more to look forward to than dwelling on a slow summer.

Whilst we didn’t get a guidance number we do know that IMMUNOinsghts is outperforming and we should be able to glidepath the numbers from the next trading update.

Never say never but with the loan being paid back, the H2 biased revenues and Adam’s positive outlook for us becoming EBIT positive I think if there was a need for cash it would have happened by now or at least by the end of next week.

I think though that we are going to be ok.

Should we raise it will be for a US acquisition to increase lab space there. That I definitely wouldn’t rule out!

FWIW IMO picking up a few now around the placing price should do very well over the next year.

Remember, management have options at 200p. We could get there with just a bit of buying such is the illiquidity here as there really hasn’t been a sell off in terms of volume after the results!

Usual caveats

Trek

Slide 8,

Growth opportunities....

# Trinidad is a HC rich environment with opportunities for M&A
# Projected funds flow to deploy for business expansion
# on shore bid round

It’s pretty obvious the ppt has been updated ahead of the analyst presentations. The bullets above, for ‘growth opportunities’, have not to my knowledge been muted as clearly before.

Business expansion could just mean additional licenses and expo acreage but it could also mean we are on the lookout or have a target in mind.

‘Best line of defence is attack!’

I just think we could see some accretive developments.

Usual caveats

Trek

This result extends Touchstone’s excellent drilling track record ahead of its next phase of exploration on the Ortoire block. Management is holding an Exploration Roundtable tomorrow, when we expect further details on this latest discovery, its implications, and future exploration drilling plans across the prolific Ortoire block.

Trek

Good explanation in FinnCap note.. lots to look forward to. Minor issues encountered. Thanks for your candour M-J... TP 161 which should be reviewed shortly...

“Royston first test confirms light oil Touchstone’s first production test at the Royston-1 discovery has confirmed a light oil discovery in the lowermost section of the well, adding further potential to this future development. This is a long way from the Chinook disappointment, with oil in place thought to be at least 100 mmbbls, and potential significantly larger. This should be easily and economically developable and raises confidence levels for the deeper Kraken Cretaceous exploration prospect, which management will be keen to get after.

Greater detail of the potential of this new play and future exploration opportunities are expected to be unveiled at an Exploration Roundtable tomorrow, but today’s announcement further extends Touchstone’s extraordinary drilling success on the Ortoire block. - First test confirms light oil discovery...

Touchstone’s first of three planned production tests at Royston-1 has confirmed a light oil discovery in the lowermost section of the well, representing a new zone not encountered in any of the regional offsetting wells. Touchstone announced the Royston discovery – its fifth consecutive on the Ortoire block (TXP 80%) – in September with the well encountering nearly 400ft of hydrocarbon pay, double pre-drill expectations. The test evaluated a 92-ft gross interval (30 ft of net pay) at the bottom of the well in the intermediate sheet of the Herrera Formation and flowed at rates up to 360 bpd of 34.5-degree API crude oil.

The extent of the lower section of the well that could be tested was restricted by downhole conditions, but management believes that all the sands encountered in the intermediate sheet (270 gross ft, 71 net ft of pay) are hydrocarbon charged. …and opens up a new play.

This intermediate Herrera section light oil discovery adds further potential to the future Royston development opportunity, which can be easily and economically developed alongside any gas development and suggests the following two primary testing targets are liquids rich natural gas. It also opens up a separate play that can be tested with future drilling, notably the Kraken Cretaceous exploration prospect that sits below Royston.

Two additional Royston tests by year-end. Touchstone is preparing to perforate the second test interval in the overthrust sheet of the Herrera Formation, targeting a 270-ft gross interval (145 ft of net pay) in the Gr7bc sands over the next three weeks. The third test will evaluate an 84-ft interval (62 ft of net pay) at the top of the Gr7a Herrera sands and is expected to be completed by the end of the year.

- Tees up second exploration phase nicely.

Cntd...

Thanks highlandmatt,

That does make sense but I thought they would have tested at various intervals bottom up if vertical drilling rather than pulling the drill and moving to the next location.

I guess the wirelines are saying it’s better to move. I have had a look at some of the drilling web pages, dangerous I know! And on reflection if the SP keeps going up that’ll do! Lol!

Trek

I won’t make a material difference as production is a long time off. They will be using an aggregate metric.

Looks like a bit of profit taking today. We need to churn that so we can start the next leg up.

Trek

Great result!

Can one of the ‘oilies’ here explain about the gas? I get the 360bbls/day at a sweet 34.5 API, which is likely an understated flow rate because the rig was set for gas but I don’t know why they haven’t given gas pressures/rates and are moving on to next target. Is this bottom section of the Herrera sheet primarily oil/little gas?

Thanks in advance

Trek

“IS TGA ISA-able? I just don't understand what the rules are and where I can find out which shares are eligible to be held in ISA account.”

Here you go Seible, at the top of the page is says where the stock can be held. You can use the search for all stocks and see if they can be held in an ISA. Although it is HL you don't need an account to use the search.

I must say that seems to be an odd question to consider when investing in TGA which is a very volatile stock. One would expect investors or potential investors to do some in dept DD before buying here. Be careful!

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/t/thungela-resources-ltd-npv

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Funny how these stocks at similar juncture’s go up far quicker than they drip down!

Trek

The 200k trade in red at 0815 is a buy, it’s mine. Another 200k buy will show up later.

Having read the posts from yesterday. One thing that has really stood out with the 5% buy is why didn’t they (and they may have) spread the risk across other Vicky gold diggers.

I try and keep abreast of the RNS’s and not seen anything as material elsewhere.

By any stretch of the imagination that is a lot of money to ‘punt’ on a high risk small cap digger without some intel.

Got my average below 1.7 now but adding more will mean selling elsewhere.

I expect an update by end of next week. If it dips again I will try and flip some into here else I’m done and will wait it out now.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Thanks for posting it’s a good article and reasonably reflective. I think the key takeaway is that at 58p we are more than fair value. At 88p, mmmm, that’s where most of the money seems to sit.

Will ops propel us through 80p. Will we get a macro tailwind and take us through 100p?

They have not mentioned the expo side. More to come from the step outs imo!

Management are poor, over promise under deliver, excessive remuneration and bonuses. So they are consistent there! And interestingly the ‘experts views’ seem to align with the PI’s! And we are far more critical!

Sprott and Ashanti have confidence, or are they locked in? I think they wouldn’t throw good money after bad!

Why should one sell now, they ‘’Alpha’ say it’s a fair price and I do think ops will turn. However, I agree this is likely the last chance for the BoD. Failure now and surely the big holders will force a change. I mean after all this time and only now we get a senior on site! I also wouldn’t rule out a T/O.

I am expecting, hoping for an eventual run like SQZ had from the doldrums and am prepared to wait and see what ops news we get.

There must be some reason to have attracted all that cash! Placees now are below all the recent placing prices!

Whilst the Seeking Alpha article was factually based and balanced I don’t think they have the whole story based on the higher SP placings and that there ‘should’ be better news to come.

Of course I may be wrong but I do agree this is good value now but I may sell still some at 80p just in case but I don’t see a need to sell for less.

Usual caveats

Trek

So a 3.2223p divi knocked 5.40p off the SP.

Well thats not quite a true reflection. The 200p close yesterday was an after hours close, an artificial high.

I actually managed to add at 1.97 and 1.98 yesterday. Also you have to factor in spread and trading costs. So trading the divi I.e. selling before and buying after isn't worth it imo. Taking the cash and reinvesting on the dips probably is.

The trading range here is 185-220p. So if you can tolerate that, which I can as I am used to trading a much higher vix, then the 6.48% divi at current SP, with the 10% yoy growth is imo about as good as it gets in terms of safety, cover at 1.9x, inflation beating and diversification.

The divi is quarterly and it’s from a diverse energy pf with a 20 country geo spread. It’s also paid in USD so we get some currency tailwinds as well.

You normally have to buy an energy ETF or trust for that which comes with costs.

I mentioned inflation, well a lot of that is energy driven and it’s not imo in the SP here yet. So adding now especially sub £2 should prove a sound inflation beating defensive income play. Just don’t expect huge capital gains as you can seldom have both!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Don’t-have-a-clue,

‘Trek you pretty much know everything :). So the direction we go from here is unclear for me.’

Lol! You are so kind but I don’t know everything and even if I was offered a magic ‘know all pill’ I would decline. I mean where would be the fun in that!

The first thing is cash wise we are in a good place. Look at CNR, UFO, KOD all RNS’s today about fund raises. Even today’s LEX RNS was rampy imo gearing up for a raise. We are in a good place financially and that is something that would be very appealing to a prospective CEO.

Add to that the legacy warrants clear by July next year and then we only have 3.75p and 5p warrants left that if we hit the strike price could deliver a huge cash windfall.

I have posted before the detail of this and how I think Craig was positioning the company to at least hit 3.75p by spring.

We know about the ops side, the tangibles and the excellent geo’s we have. Everything is set up to attract a good CEO.

It should mean that the BoD have a choice so I am hoping for one with a good cv.

I expect the SP to dip/mark time until an appointment or we get some good assays. Sorry that’s just being pragmatic.

With interest rates rising, tapering and a tick up in USD there isn’t just yet a macro lift. However, I do think that once the market comes to terms with how tame the fed move is and that US 10 years are still negative against inflation then gold could well go on another run. The chart points to a wave up. We’ll see. But POG does lag macro. Macro is important as it’s why many small caps are at basement prices atm!

So we need....

1) A response from the Co, give them time.
2) A new CEO with a credible Cv
3) Assay results from Creswick
4) license news
5) partnership approach/JV/offer

As for Colin, like I have said don’t assume it’s his knowledge of ECR that has enticed him. He may have had knowledge from elsewhere first and then clocked onto ECR. The poor Bailieston results lead me to think it may not have been ‘inside knowledge’. For sure it’s not a ‘wet finger in the air’ investment.

Likewise predicting Creswick assays is not easy. It’s nuggety gold. Last time we had to do whole of bag analysis to get goodaggregate meterage grades.

ATM it’s tough for investors. I make no secret that I have sold and bought back a percentage of my holding many times now. Nothing to do with the company all to do with getting into the best position before we lift off!

Look at how LND is bouncing as the selling has subsided. For those of us buying there at 21-23p it’s looking like a good move as it climbs back to the placing price.

I expect a similar response here and will continue adding here at various SP levels.

I doubt I have answered you questions but I am an active investor not a buy and hold and this volatility helps me gain more shares which of course only works if it comes good. I am quietly confident.

Usual caveats,

Good luck with your investments

Trek

51 trade yesterday and today from London Stock Exchange.....

price volume tradeValue
1.46 .....5151 .....75.2046
1.465 .......511 .....7.48615
1.42 .255142 ....3623.0164
1.47 ...15151 ...222.7197
1.47 ..500051 ...7350.7497
1.47 ...25051 ...368.2497
1.483 .151515 ..2246.96745
1.483 ......5151 ......76.38933
1.484 .....5151 .....76.44084
1.483 .....5151 .....76.38933
1.484 ...10051 ....149.15684
1.484 ......51 ....0.75684
1.484 ....15051 ...223.35684
1.484 .......51 .......0.75684
1.484 .....1051 .....15.59684
1.484 .....5151 .....76.44084
1.484 ...51051 ....757.59684
1.485 .....5151 ......76.49235
1.485 .....5151 ....76.49235
1.485 .......51 ......0.75735
1.498 .....5121 ....76.71258
1.49 .935151 .....13933.7499
1.47 ...40051 ......588.7497
1.47 ....30051 .....441.7497
1.47 .....5151 .....75.7197
1.431 ...25157 ....359.99667
1.47 ....100051 ....1470.7497
1.47 ....30051 ....441.7497
1.468 ...35051 ....514.54868
1.467 .200051 ...2934.74817
1.41 ..151051 ...2129.8191
1.41 ..151051 ....2129.8191
1.41 ...51051 ...719.8191
1.41 ....51051 ...719.8191
1.4 .........51000 ....714
1.418 .....6851 ....97.14718
1.393 ...105151 ....1464.75343
1.375 ...20051 ....275.70125
1.367 ...851110 ....11634.6737
1.405 ...351515 ...4938.78575

RIP Craig,

Thank you for posting Jody.

Our sincere condolences for your loss.

Trek

...still all about buys and sells. Value will remain disconnected from the SP until the seller is cleared. There are diggers out there with much higher mcap’s than us and far less ounces!

The MM has to drop the price to a level that will tempt buyers to clear the seller. That’s just how it works.

When the seller clears there will be new holders that have a different view on the value of their investment, and so it goes on....

Only a bid will see what is close to true value here in terms of the asset. We will, even at 40p remain discounted until a deal is done....

One has to get used to ‘cheap’ in this market and try and gauge the price inflection points. If there are none then ‘cheap’ is the order of the day.

Trek

Nice to know our posts are read by millionaires other than BCB! Lol!

Trek

I have reread the RNS’s and decided to go significantly overweight here. I may offload some when we get going as I think a run is due. Expecting phase 1 news soon. That could be a significant catalyst. £12m company starts a Phase one trial! Bonkers!

Also my average is now well below the warrant strike price so I should have opportunities to sell down to a more comfortable position or recycle a percentage on any dips.

Best laid plans - only works if we head north! But the many indicators are there!

Usual caveats

Trek